re: Economist Predicts Fossil Fuel Vehicles No Longer Sold In 8 Years

I've always felt cost and range were the greatest barriers to adoption.

I expected to read an article that was outlandish like those Disney World esque "World of Tommorw" futurist forecasts from the 50's.

But this is actually a lot more reasonable then I expected and offers some good point.

My only counter, a big one, is that I do expect that oil companies, and natural market forces, will likely push oil prices down as preferences shift, which I think should drag out that sort of adoption into a longer timeframe. And I think it is difficult to see rural areas of the country being able to move into that sort of model of ride sharing, total autonomous vehicles, and the necessary infrastructure.

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Tesla has charging speeds up to 20 minutes for 0-50%. I used to think battery replacement was the way to go but now I'm guessing iterative improvements on battery tech will get there first.

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While that's a good improvement, it's nowhere near the 5-10 minutes it takes to fill the tank on an average SUV. At the very least the recharge time will mean that long-distance drivers will avoid the electric market for much longer than 8 years from now (and that doesn't even get into the BTU issue for semi's).

Personally I'll be giddy for something that costs <$30k has >300hp and goes over 300-400 miles on a single charge (and I think many others will be as well).

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If you do away with cars that run on fossil fuels and switch to electric, that leads to a greater demand for electricity.

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They don't think that far ahead. All we hear now is how our grids are at capacity or near capacity.

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Personally I'll be giddy for something that costs <$30k has >300hp and goes over 300-400 miles on a single charge (and I think many others will be as well

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Yeah, call me when that happens.

What the hell is gonna power my flying car?

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Economist Predicts Fossil Fuel Vehicles No Longer Sold In 8 Years

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This is wishful thinking.

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They will switch en masse to self-drive electric vehicles (EVs) that are ten times cheaper to run than fossil-based cars, with a near-zero marginal cost of fuel and an expected lifespan of 1 million miles.

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The link below from a guy that owned a Tesla for a year and gave a great report on things. He calculated his fuel cost to be around 5.3 cents/mile. For current gas prices ($2/gallon) and a 35 mpg vehicle, the cost is 5.7 cents/mile. Pretty damn close and at 40 mpg, it's 5 cents/mile.
Tesla article

Is it a job requirement that Economists have to be clueless morons?

Seems that way since they're never right

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While that's a good improvement, it's nowhere near the 5-10 minutes it takes to fill the tank on an average SUV. At the very least the recharge time will mean that long-distance drivers will avoid the electric market for much longer than 8 years from now (and that doesn't even get into the BTU issue for semi's).

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Just to counter this a bit. If cost, autonomy, and range does improve. And people heavily embrace ride sharing. You can imagine some forward thinking rental companies re-structuring their business to provide customers with a service where you rent an autonomous vehicle, built for comfort of travelers, it calculates your end destination, makes vehicle stops at the companies stations along the way to charge or switch out the car, and you keep on going.

Borrow from the airline model of service and offer in-transport services that provide additional revenue streams.

Then again there is also the infant technology of roads that can charge vehicles. That the U.K. is testing out on a small, non-public scale.

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battery tech

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Also the key in solar energy

When you get tenure, you can just say what the F you want. I can tell you that 8 years ago, my senior design project was the use of alternative energy. We could not provide 15% of the current usage at 10x's the cost. In the 8 years since then, not much change in the way we utilize those energy sources (wind & solar). How does an economist have any insight into technology change in 8 years?

Where do these morons think electricity for electric cars come from? I do believe it will become more popular when you can get a charge in 5 minutes and go 400 miles on a charge. Until then, fossil fuels will power cars more regularly. And even when we do switch over to electric, we will need a fuel source for electricity. We can't get a finely tuned tesla to 300 miles per charge. How in the F is a guy towing a boat or a big rig going to switch over to electric?