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re: Hurricane Earl - Mexico Bound
Posted on 7/31/16 at 3:24 pm to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 7/31/16 at 3:24 pm to GEAUXmedic
The 12Z HWRF blows it up into a 100kt storm just off Belize, but the GFDL only has it up to about 60kts, the Euro keeps it weak at about 1004 mb, and the GFS is even weaker at about 1008mb.
With the high oceanic heat content of the western Caribbean, I would not be surprised if this thing blows up like the HWRF forecast - IF it can slow down AND stay far enough off the Honduran coast.
With the high oceanic heat content of the western Caribbean, I would not be surprised if this thing blows up like the HWRF forecast - IF it can slow down AND stay far enough off the Honduran coast.
This post was edited on 7/31/16 at 3:27 pm
2
Posted on 7/31/16 at 3:35 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
With the high oceanic heat content of the western Caribbean, I would not be surprised if this thing blows up like the HWRF forecast - IF it can slow down AND stay far enough off the Honduran coast.
It needs to slow the frick down then.
Posted on 7/31/16 at 9:20 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
The 12Z HWRF blows it up into a 100kt storm just off Belize, but the GFDL only has it up to about 60kts, the Euro keeps it weak at about 1004 mb, and the GFS is even weaker at about 1008mb
The one common theme is that they all take it basically due west to Mexico/Belize.
quote:
With the high oceanic heat content of the western Caribbean, I would not be surprised if this thing blows up like the HWRF forecast - IF it can slow down AND stay far enough off the Honduran coast.
The 18z HWRF backed way off to what appears to be more of a realistic scenario. It looks good on sat tonight with some very deep convection (blacks) but we can't really tell much without recon or some better surface obs. Even the radar loops are probably picking up a mid-level vort.
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