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Started By
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re: Hurricane Earl - Mexico Bound
Posted on 8/3/16 at 2:27 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Posted on 8/3/16 at 2:27 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Looks like some of the spaghetti models took a nice jog to the North.
0
Posted on 8/3/16 at 2:34 pm to baytiger
quote:
Punta Cana is gorgeous this time of year though
Next year. IF I can make it. Posted on 8/3/16 at 2:45 pm to LanierSpots
Explosive updraft on the eastern side of the center. Rapid scan sat is going to be so awesome next season. Also, motion seems to have more of a NW component lately.
Posted on 8/3/16 at 2:48 pm to rds dc
quote:
Explosive updraft on the eastern side of the center. Rapid scan sat is going to be so awesome next season. Also, motion seems to have more of a NW component lately.
Looks like recon is going straight for that burst, too.
honestly, I'm more looking forward to never having South America rapidscan outages again, but GOES-R is just a huge upgrade from top to bottom so there's a lot to look forward to.
This post was edited on 8/3/16 at 2:52 pm
Posted on 8/3/16 at 3:33 pm to baytiger
21Z update looks like it'll stay a TS with a forecast to become a hurricane imminently. Recon just flew over 63 kts
This post was edited on 8/3/16 at 3:42 pm
Posted on 8/3/16 at 4:14 pm to baytiger
We have Hurricane Earl
HURRICANE EARL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
400 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016
...NOAA PLANE FINDS THAT EARL IS NOW A HURRICANE...
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft just reached Earl and measured
maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h), indicating that Earl
is now a hurricane.
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 86.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Avila
HURRICANE EARL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
400 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016
...NOAA PLANE FINDS THAT EARL IS NOW A HURRICANE...
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft just reached Earl and measured
maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h), indicating that Earl
is now a hurricane.
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 86.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Avila
Posted on 8/3/16 at 4:24 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
recon plane was just a little too slow for the official bulletin
Posted on 8/3/16 at 4:24 pm to rds dc
Interesting north trend in the ensembles today, there is northern landfall cluster that is now outside the current cone. This doesn't include the crazy Canadian tracks.
This post was edited on 8/3/16 at 4:26 pm
Posted on 8/3/16 at 5:50 pm to rds dc
Eye is fully formed now. Belize and southern Yucatan are fortunate that Earl is running out of water.
This post was edited on 8/3/16 at 5:55 pm
Posted on 8/3/16 at 5:57 pm to rds dc
The Earl name would be much more appropriate US gulf coast landfall
Posted on 8/3/16 at 6:22 pm to Luke
quote:
The Earl name would be much more appropriate US gulf coast landfall
That will be Fiona, next week, maybe...
Posted on 8/3/16 at 8:46 pm to NorthEndZone
Just left Cozumel 2 hrs ago. Shite is rough in the gulf right now. Boat is doing 20 knots to try and get north quickly. Will hopefully get past the outer bands soon and shite will level off. Gonna be a fun night.
Posted on 8/3/16 at 9:03 pm to Lambdatiger1989
Really ramping up but running out of time
Posted on 8/3/16 at 9:38 pm to rds dc
83 kts in a dropsonde at 925mb. I don't think they'll bump it up to a cat 2 based on that alone but it's possible.
Posted on 8/3/16 at 9:44 pm to baytiger
Looks like Belize City could get the northern portion of the eyewall. Josh Morgerman from iCyclone was commenting earlier about how flat and low that are was. He should get some impressive surge video tonight.
This post was edited on 8/3/16 at 9:45 pm
Posted on 8/3/16 at 9:54 pm to baytiger
Yeah they kept it at 65kt. didn't find any other support for stronger winds at the sfc.
Posted on 8/3/16 at 10:04 pm to baytiger
quote:
Yeah they kept it at 65kt. didn't find any other support for stronger winds at the sfc.
Luckily, there was just enough shear yesterday and it got close enough to the coast last night to keep things in check. It spent most of the day trying to organize the core instead of going RI.
Now on to the potential Gulf disturbance, it is a complicated setup but it wouldn't be surprising to see a TS come of it. There looks to be a lot of rain and possibly flooding rains somewhere along the Gulf coast next week.
Posted on 8/3/16 at 10:57 pm to rds dc
In playa Del Carmen right now and all is fine. The resort cleared the water earlier due to some chop but nothing major. Carry on... Carry on
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