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re: Tropical Storm Erika - fat lady has sung, passed out, & getting dry humped
Posted on 8/27/15 at 6:43 am to rds dc
Posted on 8/27/15 at 6:43 am to rds dc
06z gfs keeps it in the atlantic too. funny how the models seem to be coming back to where they were 2 days ago
(that's the AVNO track on rds's graphic that put it into the carolinas at 00z)
(that's the AVNO track on rds's graphic that put it into the carolinas at 00z)
This post was edited on 8/27/15 at 6:45 am
1
Posted on 8/27/15 at 7:23 am to baytiger
quote:
06z gfs keeps it in the atlantic too. funny how the models seem to be coming back to where they were 2 days ago
Yeah, fun times for the NHC. The 00z Euro EPS continued the 12z theme of expanding uncertainty to the left. The models continue to struggle with the northern stream energy coming out in advance of the WC trough, the evolution of the weakness left over the lower Mississippi valley, and the short term strength/track of Erika. Just a little bit of chaos!
This post was edited on 8/27/15 at 7:26 am
Posted on 8/27/15 at 7:27 am to rds dc
quote:That's meteorology
Just a little bit of chaos!
Posted on 8/27/15 at 7:50 am to baytiger
Recon data.... Could this pass south of Puerto Rico?
Posted on 8/27/15 at 8:31 am to rds dc
It has been moving almost due west for several hours now
but it's been so decoupled that the upper level vortex fixes probably don't align with the low level motion. It'll be easier to tell once all the overnight convection evaporates (
) and we can really see underneath
but it's been so decoupled that the upper level vortex fixes probably don't align with the low level motion. It'll be easier to tell once all the overnight convection evaporates (
) and we can really see underneathThis post was edited on 8/27/15 at 8:50 am
Posted on 8/27/15 at 8:54 am to baytiger
Bay- whats the best site for looking at the tracking map...or do they all get their info from the same place?
This post was edited on 8/27/15 at 8:55 am
Posted on 8/27/15 at 8:55 am to TigerTatorTots
they all get their info from the official NHC fixes
Posted on 8/27/15 at 9:04 am to jivy26
quote:
Anyone have a particular Android app that they use?
I use SeaStorm. It's a couple bucks and obviously only pulls NHC data, but it's convenient and easy to navigate. I think it's an extra dollar or so to add forecast models.
Posted on 8/27/15 at 9:10 am to baytiger
quote:
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
estimated near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 62.7 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast later today, and this general motion
should continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the
center of Erika will move near the Virgin Islands later today,
move near or north of Puerto Rico tonight, and pass north of the
north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km),
mainly to the north and east of the center.
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
Erika was supposed to go north of the islands and Puerto Rico/Hispaniola areas at least a day or so ago (originally speaking, anyway). With the due west movement over the past 24 hours, it's remaining kinda south of that ridge. I'm probably wrong, but I'm going to call it now that she continues westward with only slight west-north-west movements/jogs through the Caribbean, south of landmasses. She may make a fool out of all of us and just head straight into the Yucatan since she'll still be a little too far south to be picked up by anything else. Stranger shite has happened in the tropics before.
Posted on 8/27/15 at 9:14 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
he may make a fool out of all of us and just head straight into the Yucatan since she'll still be a little too far south to be picked up by anything else.
if that track happens there won't be an Erika by the time it gets to the yucatan
This post was edited on 8/27/15 at 9:27 am
Posted on 8/27/15 at 9:15 am to TDsngumbo
There is no way it can take that track. It would have to move NNW and that isn't happening, yet
Posted on 8/27/15 at 9:20 am to ToulatownTiger
quote:
There is no way it can take that track. It would have to move NNW and that isn't happening, yet
yeah that's just an intermediate advisory. next official advisory will adjust to a more realistic track.
Posted on 8/27/15 at 9:44 am to baytiger
I'm sure most have seen these already but here are more models and such:
Posted on 8/27/15 at 9:51 am to TDsngumbo
the HWRF went from major hurricane to "frick it" mode
Posted on 8/27/15 at 9:56 am to baytiger
Is it me or does it look like she's slowing down a bit? Still says moving W at 16mph (280*) in the latest advisory
Posted on 8/27/15 at 10:01 am to CuseTiger
the convection is dying out... you kind of have to focus on the lower level clouds to ascertain motion.. just ignore the wispy upper level clouds
Posted on 8/27/15 at 10:23 am to baytiger
Now I see it... Convection (whiter area) looks to be moving south while the lower level (grayer clouds) I can see moving west north west. Is it reasons like this why they do the flyovers? Obviously you can get good statistical information but if just looking at imagery it'd be tough to the naked eye to tell intensity, direction, etc.
Posted on 8/27/15 at 10:26 am to TDsngumbo
Dear OP,
Thanks for the updates in the thread and the info provided in the OP itself.
Although I appreciate the hard work, I only read the thread title and look at the pictures.
Very truly yours,
The Captain.
Thanks for the updates in the thread and the info provided in the OP itself.
Although I appreciate the hard work, I only read the thread title and look at the pictures.
Very truly yours,
The Captain.
Posted on 8/27/15 at 10:29 am to TDsngumbo
at this point I'm gonna say pretty much every model that puts it north of the domican republic is garbage. I'd give it like 85+% of hitting the island. It'd have to take a pretty drastic turn not to.
Posted on 8/27/15 at 10:39 am to baytiger
quote:
at this point I'm gonna say pretty much every model that puts it north of the domican republic is garbage. I'd give it like 85+% of hitting the island. It'd have to take a pretty drastic turn not to.
Yep. Bitch runnin wild doing her own thing.
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