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Started By
Message
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Posted on 8/26/15 at 4:15 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
That half are predicting a category 2-3 storm at best and half are predicting a giant increase in strength to cat 4?
Yes and no, it is how they are doing it. The majority show steady to rapid intensification starting here pretty soon. Only the HWFI, of the models that bomb it, holds off until later on down the road. That is probably a more reasonable scenario when you start talking potentially maxing things out. The HWRF dumbbells along a very disorganized system right into Puerto Rico and starts to intensify it on the N. shore as it moves away and misses Hispaniola. That is some fancy physics right there and it will be interesting to watch this play out.
Posted on 8/26/15 at 6:35 pm to The Boat
You sure do get excited when you're about to fly somewhere .. 
Posted on 8/26/15 at 8:57 pm to TigahRag
You'll have to excuse me for posting something really relevant to a potential middle of Florida land-falling hurricane.
Posted on 8/26/15 at 9:51 pm to The Boat
Another big burst of convection tonight but everything seems to indicate that the LLC is still off to the NW of this blow up
The models continue to shift back to the East tonight but the Euro EPS (not shown) actually showed more spread at 12z than 00z (indicating more uncertainty) with tracks from the W tip of Cuba to E of the Bahamas.
The models continue to shift back to the East tonight but the Euro EPS (not shown) actually showed more spread at 12z than 00z (indicating more uncertainty) with tracks from the W tip of Cuba to E of the Bahamas.
Posted on 8/26/15 at 10:01 pm to rds dc
quote:
Posted by
Message
FelicianaTigerfan
Tropical Storm Erika - decent chance for Florida and possibly Gulf of Mexico
This will be one of those storms where the cone swings back and forth
And I got downvoted for saying this
This post was edited on 8/26/15 at 10:26 pm
Posted on 8/26/15 at 10:25 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:
And I got downvoted for saying this
It wasn't me
but you should know people on this board would Downvote Santa Claus for saying that it's cold at the North Pole!This post was edited on 8/26/15 at 10:27 pm
Posted on 8/26/15 at 10:30 pm to rds dc
It's going to ride east of the Florida coastline indirect hit and glance the Carolinas.
90 mph is my prediction
90 mph is my prediction
This post was edited on 8/26/15 at 10:31 pm
Posted on 8/26/15 at 10:35 pm to TOKEN
Is it true a hurricane hasn't touched the state of Florida in over a decade?
Posted on 8/26/15 at 10:37 pm to UFownstSECsince1950
Was it 04 when Florida got beat to shite by multiple storms?
Posted on 8/26/15 at 10:46 pm to weagle99
Yes, my entire house got destroyed. But I think 2005 was the last hurricane to touch Florida, unless I am mistaken.
Posted on 8/26/15 at 10:47 pm to weagle99
Three big hurricanes made landfall in Florida in 2004 and Ivan made landfall in Alabama and wrecked the panhandle. One town had those three cross over it. And Frances and Jeanne made landfall in virtually the same place. Frances made landfall virtually stationary. It was something to watch it putt across Florida. The 2004 season was the most intense hurricane season ever... Until the next year.
Posted on 8/26/15 at 10:49 pm to weagle99
Hurricane Jeanne's track cracked my shite up back in 04. It was the last hurricane to impact Florida that year. And that track made it seem like Florida was a hurricane magnet.
Posted on 8/27/15 at 2:51 am to The Boat
I always thought Betsy had a really weird track, but that Jeanne track is really "loopy".
Betsy:
Betsy:
Posted on 8/27/15 at 3:28 am to rds dc
the last vortex fix found 55 knots in that huge burst of convection
let's see if Erika can actually sustain it today
let's see if Erika can actually sustain it today
Posted on 8/27/15 at 6:19 am to baytiger
quote:
let's see if Erika can actually sustain it today
First visible of the day looks better with some convection going up near the center
The system is a good bit south of where NHC and the models thought it would be this morning. It looks like it will have a really hard time gaining enough latitude today to miss the bigger islands. That combined with the way the models are handling the northern stream S/W (not eroding the ridge as much) looks to favor the weaker more left scenario again.
Posted on 8/27/15 at 6:23 am to TOKEN
quote:
It's going to ride east of the Florida coastline indirect hit and glance the Carolinas.
90 mph is my prediction
I think your track is right but I think you're too high on the mph.....maybe 60.
Posted on 8/27/15 at 6:32 am to The Boat
quote:
Hurricane Jeanne's track cracked my shite up back in 04. It was the last hurricane to impact Florida that year. And that track made it seem like Florida was a hurricane magnet.
Frances and Jeanne both making landfall at Sewell's Point had me thinking the same damn thing. That was crazy
Posted on 8/27/15 at 6:36 am to Wtodd
quote:
quote:
It's going to ride east of the Florida coastline indirect hit and glance the Carolinas.
90 mph is my prediction
I think your track is right but I think you're too high on the mph.....maybe 60.
All of that seems reasonable, throw out the GFDL models and the consensus shifts W to something pretty close. Distance from the Florida would play a huge role in future intensity, esp. if system stays E enough to track over the Gulf stream
Posted on 8/27/15 at 6:40 am to rds dc
(no message)
This post was edited on 11/7/22 at 5:25 am
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