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re: Update pg 23: Russia,IMO, will default on its sovereign debt within six months
Posted on 11/10/14 at 3:29 pm to Iosh
Posted on 11/10/14 at 3:29 pm to Iosh
quote:
The shitty part is that a collapsing ruble will disproportionately hurt the working class in Russia. Oligarchs (especially those that own extraction businesses) will be just peachy with this because they do most of their sales in foreign currency and probably have their assets sheltered abroad too. All this means is their costs just got a whole lot lower.
They live on gov't handouts anyway.
0
Posted on 11/10/14 at 11:20 pm to LSURussian
quote:Isn't the borrower the Russian government since it is sovereign debt? I figure Putin will exact a little tax payable in commodities from some of his cronies in exchange for economic concessions to those cronies. Maybe the cronies will be allowed to sell the commodities for foreign currencies, and their taxes will be payable in those same currencies. But somehow, I expect the oligarchs in Russia to help pay the notes and get richer for it.
If the borrowers have commodities that can be sold for euros or dollars, why would they have to barter with those commodities?
Posted on 11/10/14 at 11:58 pm to LSURussian
Soooooo.... I should expect there to be a flux of foreclosed condos in Miami Beach coming from the Russian expats?
Posted on 11/11/14 at 12:01 am to CtotheVrzrbck
If they can afford that real estate, they can afford to keep their wealth in something not denominated in rubles, so no. Not unless they're retarded.
Posted on 11/11/14 at 5:49 am to Poodlebrain
Taxes are denominated in and paid in rubles,not other currencies.
Other than that it's apparent you didn't read the quote I posted about the private debt coming due in 2015 so I'll ignore the rest of your reply.
Other than that it's apparent you didn't read the quote I posted about the private debt coming due in 2015 so I'll ignore the rest of your reply.
Posted on 11/12/14 at 9:47 am to LSURussian
LINK
Times are getting tough in Russia if the country supposed to host the next World Cup can't afford to pay its own coach. Who knows about the stadiums being built esp if the become as expensive as the Olympics.
Thanks Obama
quote:
A Russian Football Union executive has admitted that the governing body cannot afford to pay national coach Fabio Capello’s controversial £6.8m annual salary.
Sergei Stepashin, a member of the RFU’s executive committee, said Capello’s salary, which has not been paid at all since June, remained unaffordable.
“I can declare that the money to pay Capello is not there,” he said. “Clearly it’s wrong to fail to pay the salary of your national team’s coach, but when they signed the contract they should really have thought about how to fund it. Today we’re still looking for a source of funding.”
Capello admitted earlier this month that his patience over the dispute was running out, saying he felt “close to the limit … I’m somewhere near”.
The financial crisis at the RFU this week led to two members of Capello’s coaching staff, Christian Panucci and Massimo Neri, refusing to travel with the side to their Euro 2016 qualifier in Austria due to what the governing body called an ongoing “contractual dispute”.
The scale of Capello’s salary has repeatedly caused unrest in Russia, with the nationalist politician Vladimir Zhirinovsky branding him “a thief” in July, while fellow MP Oleg Pakholkov said the Italian was simply in the job for the salary: “I think Capello knew very well he would achieve nothing with our team, but he simply decided it was a good way to make money, he wanted to hoover up bundles of cash for his retirement.”
Capello’s contract runs through to the 2018 World Cup, which Russia will host. Russia’s sports minister, Vitaly Mutko, has previously suggested that the RFU’s failure to pay salaries had caused the team’s slump in form, as well as reputational damage.
“It doesn’t give either the team or the coach any extra motivation ... The whole situation doesn’t make Russia look good in any way.”
Times are getting tough in Russia if the country supposed to host the next World Cup can't afford to pay its own coach. Who knows about the stadiums being built esp if the become as expensive as the Olympics.
Thanks Obama
Posted on 11/18/14 at 10:59 am to LSURussian
quote:BusinessInsider 11/18/14
Russia Is Tumbling Toward Its Economic Catastrophe Scenario
To stem the drop in reserves, Russia’s central bank on November 10 allowed the ruble to float freely in the market. I wouldn’t rule out a debt default crisis if the price of oil continues to fall.
Posted on 11/18/14 at 11:18 am to LSURussian
The OP got 6 downvotes. Unbelievable. 
Posted on 11/18/14 at 11:21 am to NC_Tigah
I didn't notice that. That's probably just my Baseball Fan Club from the Rant. No worries. 
Posted on 11/18/14 at 11:23 am to LSURussian
quote:
LSURussian
Thank you for keeping us up to date on this. I just hope that Putin accepts defeat and doesn't get too desperate. 
Posted on 11/18/14 at 11:29 am to mmcgrath
quote:You nailed it. Russians, more than any other nationality I've ever worked with, are terribly paranoid. If Putin's normal Russian paranoia starts to get out of control, there is absolutely no predicting how he will react.
I just hope that Putin accepts defeat and doesn't get too desperate.
A good book for insight into Putin's psyche is Putin's Labyrinth which is a little dated, having been published in 2009 and written by Steve LeVine who lived and worked in Russia for a decade.
Putin's basic world view and personality has not changed since then.
Posted on 11/18/14 at 11:46 am to LSURussian
Very interesting thread. Thanks.
Posted on 11/18/14 at 11:49 am to LSURussian
Russian - would recommend to all to follow Gary Kasparov on twitter.
Really fascinating insights that compliment yours here.
Really fascinating insights that compliment yours here.
Posted on 11/18/14 at 12:02 pm to Meauxjeaux
quote:Thanks. Good idea. He's probably one of the few people in Russia who is almost untouchable by Putin. He is revered in Russia for his chess championships. Russians love their chess games, which is what Putin is playing with Obama and Europe.
Russian - would recommend to all to follow Gary Kasparov on twitter.
Posted on 11/18/14 at 1:13 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
The OP got 6 downvotes. Unbelievable
Well, he has left the original thread title in place even though he admitted later in the thread that 6 months was probably the minimum time before a default. Perhaps people are confused by those 2 mutually-exclusive positions.
Perhaps they thought he was being dramatic in his thread title just so he could get extra eyeballs in the thread? If he thought it was a minimum of 6 months, then why lead with it being less than 6 months?
Posted on 11/18/14 at 2:32 pm to Big Scrub TX
Big Scrub = downvoter
Posted on 11/18/14 at 2:34 pm to Jimbeaux
I'm just gonna go right on ahead and thank Obama for this.
Posted on 11/18/14 at 2:39 pm to LSURussian
quote:This is so weird to me.
Russians love their chess games
I just picture Russians climbing tall shite, pretending to be bad arse, actually being bad arse, getting drunk, building mostly shitty tech and being weirdos.
And then they like chess.
Anyone else not get this?
Posted on 11/18/14 at 2:52 pm to FT
quote:Nope, just you.
Anyone else not get this?
The Soviet Union, and now Russia, have produced more chess grand masters than any other country. Almost every park in Moscow during the summer has a chess competition taking place. Sometimes you can't find a bench to sit on because the benches are occupied by players and chess boards.
And they take it very seriously. I've seen fights break out in parks over chess matches, usually instigated by losing betting and vodka.
Posted on 11/18/14 at 2:54 pm to LSURussian
quote:You don't see chess being a huge thing there as a bit idiosyncratic?
Nope, just you.
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