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re: Predictability of LSU on Offense since 2008 - Why the box is stacked
Posted on 9/24/14 at 8:32 am to Salviati
Posted on 9/24/14 at 8:32 am to Salviati
The problem is CLM thinks he can simply run the ball and wear folks down. That only works if you have superior talent relative to the opp. The rest of the schedule sans this weekend have equal if not better talent than us at the point of attack.
We NEED to become the team with unorthodox play calling to move the chains because other teams have the ability to simply shove it down our throats and succeed. But even they are mixing up the play calling and we are simply left grasping in the air.
We NEED to become the team with unorthodox play calling to move the chains because other teams have the ability to simply shove it down our throats and succeed. But even they are mixing up the play calling and we are simply left grasping in the air.
1
Posted on 9/24/14 at 9:02 am to oneg8rh8r
quote:
The problem is CLM thinks he can simply run the ball and wear folks down.
he's done it before (2011) so he thinks it will work this year.
3 points against MSU going into the 4th quarter...
Posted on 9/24/14 at 9:04 am to monsterballads
quote:How about those adjustments after?
3 points against MSU going into the 4th quarter...
Posted on 9/24/14 at 9:09 am to CptBengal
You're spewing crap. Your analysis, and thus your conclusion, sucks for multiple reasons.
First, you don't understand the flaws in your data set. (Or maybe you do understand the flaws, and you prefer to present misinformation to advance your agenda.)
Second, you misanalyse the data set to present misinformation to advance your agenda.
Third, you chose presentations that misrepresent the facts to provide misinformation to advance your agenda.
Fourth, you include incomplete facts to provide misinformation to advance your agenda.
You present pretty graphs in the hope that your dog and pony show won't be critically analyzed. You hope that no one will be willing to do the work to disprove your "analysis" and show it up for the smoke and mirrors that it actually is.
First, you don't understand the flaws in your data set. (Or maybe you do understand the flaws, and you prefer to present misinformation to advance your agenda.)
Second, you misanalyse the data set to present misinformation to advance your agenda.
Third, you chose presentations that misrepresent the facts to provide misinformation to advance your agenda.
Fourth, you include incomplete facts to provide misinformation to advance your agenda.
You present pretty graphs in the hope that your dog and pony show won't be critically analyzed. You hope that no one will be willing to do the work to disprove your "analysis" and show it up for the smoke and mirrors that it actually is.
This post was edited on 9/24/14 at 10:02 am
Posted on 9/24/14 at 9:44 am to Salviati
Bottom line i believe the point he is making is what we have discussed here for years especially since 2010. Far too predictable on down and distance. Not enough variation of those plays.
Posted on 9/24/14 at 9:50 am to Salviati
quote:
You're analysis
Stop reading YOUR critique at right here.
Pot meet Kettle...
Whether flawed or not, his grasp of mathematical analysis seems to be much better than your grasp of 5th grade grammar.
Posted on 9/24/14 at 9:53 am to AlxTgr
quote:
How about those adjustments after?
Well yeah...after we had no choice!
Posted on 9/24/14 at 9:55 am to Fat Bastard
i love seeing threads like this one season after LSU was the first team in SEC history with a 3000 yard QB, 2 1000 yard receivers, and a 1000 yard rusher.
apparently LSU fans have the memory of a goldfish
apparently LSU fans have the memory of a goldfish
Posted on 9/24/14 at 10:07 am to mlminbtr
quote:I deeply apologize. I started the post and deleted a sentence, but failed to change a word. My humble apologies.
Stop reading YOUR critique at right here.
Pot meet Kettle...
Whether flawed or not, his grasp of mathematical analysis seems to be much better than your grasp of 5th grade grammar.
Nevertheless, I was not correcting a mere error in grammar. I was pointing out that his whole analysis is flawed.
Posted on 9/24/14 at 10:08 am to Fat Bastard
quote:
Bottom line i believe the point he is making is what we have discussed here for years especially since 2010. Far too predictable on down and distance. Not enough variation of those plays.
Right. That's the premise of the OP, that there's a statistical correlation between the plays called and either down or years gone by.
With the data presented, that correlation does not exist. This is week one statistics, you simply can NOT draw any conclusions from that data with any confidence. As I said earlier, that shaded grey area is the rub. Any straight line drawn inside that area has the same probability of being the trend. I can draw a line up, down, and sideways. I could use the exact same set of data to argue we are passing more, and statistically be just as correct. Bottom line, what does that tell you about the conclusions in the OP, and on the rant over the years?
Posted on 9/24/14 at 10:14 am to Salviati
quote:
was pointing out that his whole analysis is flawed.
Do tell.... as I have already pointed out those flaws myself.
ETA: Me thinks you dont like the conclusion I drew, hence why your "critique" had no substance, other to say "you're wrong".
My guess is you will be even more upset at my next thread...it paints an even worse picture for Miles.
This post was edited on 9/24/14 at 10:19 am
Posted on 9/24/14 at 10:15 am to TheDrunkenTigah
quote:OP wouldn't even answer 2 posts, prolly 30 min apart asking which down LSU would most likely pass on this year.
This is week one statistics, you simply can NOT draw any conclusions from that data with any confidence.
Posted on 9/24/14 at 10:21 am to TheDrunkenTigah
quote:
Any straight line drawn inside that area has the same probability of being the trend. I can draw a line up, down, and sideways.
Actually no. That isnt true. There is a 95% confidence that the line falls within that shaded region. However, the line most likely takes the path and slope of the actual line drawn.
Each outcome within the shaded region is NOT equally likely.
Posted on 9/24/14 at 10:32 am to CptBengal
quote:
CptBengal
Nice job.
Posted on 9/24/14 at 10:36 am to Taxing Authority
Same old Miles. What's so maddening is Miles, as expected, said today during the SEC teleconference, that it was not the scheme in the MSU game, but the execution. Miles in his limited mental capacity, really believes that if you run into a brick wall enough, it will give. He really runs a painful offense to watch.
This post was edited on 9/24/14 at 10:38 am
Posted on 9/24/14 at 10:39 am to RedTigerRulz
quote:And Wisky. Miles is the master of in-game adjustments
How about those adjustments after?
Well yeah...after we had no choice!
Posted on 9/24/14 at 10:42 am to CptBengal
Another way to look at it how our offense has ranked nationally.
2008: Offense(55th) Defense(32nd)
2009: Offense(112th) Defense(26th)
2010: Offense(86th) Defense(12th)
2011: Offense(86th) Defense(2nd)
2012: Offense(85th) Defense(8th)
2013: Offense(35th) Defense(15th)
2014: Offense(60th) Defense(17th) <-Thus far
2008: Offense(55th) Defense(32nd)
2009: Offense(112th) Defense(26th)
2010: Offense(86th) Defense(12th)
2011: Offense(86th) Defense(2nd)
2012: Offense(85th) Defense(8th)
2013: Offense(35th) Defense(15th)
2014: Offense(60th) Defense(17th) <-Thus far
Posted on 9/24/14 at 11:51 am to CptBengal
quote:
Each outcome within the shaded region is NOT equally likely.
You're right, it's a Gaussian distribution, I shouldn't have said equal probability. But, with a sigma^2 that high, the distribution is gonna be relatively flat, meaning a flat line is gonna be almost as probable as a positive slope. You have a better argument asserting that Miles has been set in his ways with run:pass ratios over multiple OCs IMO.
Posted on 9/24/14 at 11:56 am to TheDrunkenTigah
quote:
But, with a sigma^2 that high, the distribution is gonna be relatively flat, meaning a flat line is gonna be almost as probable as a positive slope.
agreed, the slope was significant only at an alpha of .1, not great, but not horrible either. Those outliers near the centroid really mess things up.
I actually am just finishing up some code to calculate the probability of a run being called based on the season, the quarter, the down, and the location on the field.
Once I get that output sorted and squared, I should have a much bigger N to play with...
SPOILER: In case anyone is wondering, this next analysis really makes Miles look predictable based on just a basic perusal of the data.
Posted on 9/24/14 at 12:58 pm to Salviati
quote:Yes, because saying this without actually pointing out the flaws is different than what you claim he did, how?
First, you don't understand the flaws in your data set
quote:Show us where he's wrong, feel free.
You present pretty graphs in the hope that your dog and pony show won't be critically analyzed. You hope that no one will be willing to do the work to disprove your "analysis" and show it up for the smoke and mirrors that it actually is
Have we not ran more on 1st and 2nd down with less success over the years? shite, I have no clue, but feel free to show a little evidence to support your contentions.
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