re: Best Guess When it's time to Pull out the Market?

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There's no doubt there will be a correction in the stock market.

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I've been hearing this for ~9 months.

As far as timing, Mebane Faber did an interesting study that used the 10-month MVA to signal when to enter and exit. Over the longterm it outperformed buy and hold.

The challenge is it really requires a long-term conviction because you're going to underperform in bull markets but you'll avoid the severe crashes. It's interesting to say the least.

It's a free download here: LINK /

I'm a mean reverter therefore I'm easing out as we speak. The only thing I've bought lately is the timber cos.-PCL,ACAZF,RYN,PCH. I would refer anybody interested in mean reverting to the articles on the GMO website. It's gmo.com and it's free to register.

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Thinking about just going to cash. Correction will be between 10-40%.

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Thanks for the info. How long will it last? When will it get back to where it was before it corrected?

Good plan I'm in.














Do we buy back in right before it goes up??

Buy low and sell high. At least you’d have the sell high part right. Unless, of course, the market continues to rise. I’m now semi-retired and holding steady about 50% stock and 50% bond mutual funds in my retirement accounts. In my stock trading (non-retirement money account) I am holding what I have but not buying. I’m keeping dividend income in a money market account with the brokerage as dry powder to be used in a correction situation.

I think we have pullback at 17k (5% mkt drop). May look at correction mid 2015 when "interest rates rise" so the Fed says. I don't think the correction will be more than 20% though. The mkt tried to have a correction in Jan-Feb, but what you saw is a lot of big companies/hedge funds doing exactly what your doing. They were cash heavy and waiting on the drop. So when the market hit -7% they all bought back in and raised the mkt back up. I think you will continue to see that trend as well.

What you need to watch for though is "dumb money" going into E-Trade type accounts. When there is a mass influx of money going into these accounts, then typically institutional money is flowing out and selling. We're not quite there yet, forward P/E's still show the market is at a discount even though we're at the top of the market.

For the record though, buy and hold is the only proven way.

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The strategy guarantees a profit when done in the right circumstances.

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That is how I see it, particularly for when you want to hold a stock and you think the market is ready to correct.

Bout a week after I decide to go all in....SELL!!!