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Statisticians: What is the % that calling TO with 20 seconds would've affected
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:37 pm
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:37 pm
Not excusing what happened and would have loved any chance.
But, what is the % chance that calling a time out with 20 or so seconds would have changed the outcome? We would have been without any more time outs and starting likely starting well on out side of the field.
Gotta think it would have been pretty extreme long shot.
But, what is the % chance that calling a time out with 20 or so seconds would have changed the outcome? We would have been without any more time outs and starting likely starting well on out side of the field.
Gotta think it would have been pretty extreme long shot.
26
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:39 pm to Methuselah
Sure it's an extreme long shot. But he basically guaranteed that we had a 0 percent chance of winning if they made the field goal. It really can't be defended.
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:39 pm to Methuselah
I'm no statistician, by I'm pretty confident that the outcome wouldn't have changed.
There is always something that people have to point to and say "If this was different, we would have won the game!" I think that 20 seconds is the weakest attempt.
There is always something that people have to point to and say "If this was different, we would have won the game!" I think that 20 seconds is the weakest attempt.
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:39 pm to Methuselah
3.7%
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:39 pm to Methuselah
Not a statistician, but we would've had a razor thin chance to win. That's the worst part of this, we were probably going to lose anyway. Miles just gave the masses more fuel, even if it was pointless. Dumb move, but we still lose in that situation.
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:40 pm to Methuselah
5% chance it would have changed the outcome
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:42 pm to Methuselah
quote:
Statisticians: What is the % that calling TO with 20 seconds would've affected
It was closer to thirty seconds than twenty. In any event, irrespective of the exact probabilities, failing to call the TO was indefensible stupidity.
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:42 pm to Methuselah
The difference is exponential. 20 seconds is 3 pass attempts, a spike, and a field goal attempt. It would make for a long shot, but it would be a shot. It bumps LSU's chances up from .1% to probably around 20%.
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:46 pm to Methuselah
He should've called it sooner but whatever.
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:46 pm to Methuselah
Miles inferred that our best chance, in his opinion, was to ice the kicker and block the kick.
How common is it to block field goals? IDK, but not great, and even more rare to block two in one game.
IMO, 20 seconds to get roughly 45 yards with no time outs > blocking an easy field goal. Of course, that assumes the team would be organized enough to run that kind of hurry up offense and rush the field goal unit in on time.
How common is it to block field goals? IDK, but not great, and even more rare to block two in one game.
IMO, 20 seconds to get roughly 45 yards with no time outs > blocking an easy field goal. Of course, that assumes the team would be organized enough to run that kind of hurry up offense and rush the field goal unit in on time.
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:51 pm to Methuselah
The man is a game day idiot.
Plain and simple.
Plain and simple.
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:54 pm to Methuselah
I don't care if it's a 5% chance, it sure beats zero. OBJ returning kicks, Mett, Landry and OBJ going against prevent defense. I'd say it's better than nothing.
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:56 pm to Methuselah
think about this. what if he missed the fg and les didn't call time out. ball would have been at the 35 with 30 seconds left. enough time for a few passes and shot at delahouysse knocking in a long kick. but without les calling timeout you leave no time for options. 
Posted on 10/21/13 at 5:04 pm to Methuselah
Would you rather a 5% chance or a 0% chance. Pretty simple.
We have the only coach in the country dumb enough to not call a timeout there and instead focus on setting up the FG block. Something he could have done during the timeout in the first place.
Then he calls one with 6 seconds left instead of making Ole Miss call one. I'm sorry but Les is an idiot.
We have the only coach in the country dumb enough to not call a timeout there and instead focus on setting up the FG block. Something he could have done during the timeout in the first place.
Then he calls one with 6 seconds left instead of making Ole Miss call one. I'm sorry but Les is an idiot.
Posted on 10/21/13 at 5:11 pm to Methuselah
I bet Kentucky wished they would have called time out with 6 sec left in 2002. Point being anything can happen
Posted on 10/21/13 at 5:20 pm to Methuselah
We converted a third and twenty three at Georgia. What was the percentage on that? What was the blue grass miracle percentage? I know one percentage. Les is a 100% tard.
Posted on 10/21/13 at 5:41 pm to Methuselah
Shouldn't have even called a timeout. Let them use theirs and the clock run down. If they snap poorly or hold, we go to overtime. Way better chance of that happening.
But since you're all experts then I'll just stay out of it.
But since you're all experts then I'll just stay out of it.
Posted on 10/21/13 at 6:19 pm to Methuselah
While everyone is bitching about that (because is was obviously wrong), the real problem was that we didn't eat all the clock on out last drive.
Posted on 10/21/13 at 6:24 pm to Methuselah
Probably better odds on driving and scoring than odds on icing the kicker working.
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