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![locked post](https://www.tigerdroppings.com/images/layout/lock.gif)
BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:15 pm
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:15 pm
COACHES POLL
HARRIS POLL
BCS STANDINGS
My Updated Thoughts:
1) REMATCH Bama looks to be in much better shape now with the weekend upsets, but I still think Oklahoma State could pass them with a win over OU - it would be close in my opinion. Ok State's computer score would be much better than Bama's and Oklahoma State would only need ~25% of voters to give them the nod over Bama and that doesn't seem like a hard sell when Bama didn't win their division and already lost to LSU. Losses by Va Tech and Stanford might HURT Alabama because they are stealing some anti-Bama votes from OSU right now.
I think Va Tech's computer score is too weak right now to knock out Bama. But the ACC does have 4 games left against the SEC and a clean sweep could valult Va Tech's computer ranking (not sure it would be enough). Stanford has no real shot unless they maybe squeak in the Pac12 title game - and even then not really.
2) SECCG loss It should be definite now that LSU could lose the SECCG to Georgia and finish 12-1 and easily make the NC game. I can't fathom LSU being left out. I am not even sure we need to show up.
3) 3-WAY SECW TIE?If Arky beats LSU, there will be a 3-way tie to go to the SECCG (provided Bama beats AU). What LSU needs is for Arky to finish third of 3 in the BCS so they get eliminated from the tie breaker and we would go to the SECCG. It doesn't matter if Bama finishes 1st and us 2nd, we would go because of the win over Bama.
While my bet is still on LSU squeaking in, I am more nervous now with the new computer scores. Arky really closed the gap on Alabama and I think could pass Bama in at least a couple computers. LSU would still be solidly above both in the computers, but would it be enough to overcome whatever the human polls do? I still say yes. I would think the difference in the 3 teams in the human polls are razor thin with Bama getting a slight edge because they beat Arky by 24. Then LSU has BY FAR the best resume, but Arky has the most recent win. As long as Bama has a small edge over Arky in the polls and LSU keeps it relatively close (and I mean like 10-20% of voters put LSU over Arky), LSU should be fine. So A blowout loss would be no good.
Now, bad things could happen. We want LSU's and Bama's computer score to be higher than Arky's so other games need to go our way. We would pull for:
1. Bama over AU
2. Texas over A&M
3. Clemson over SC
4. PSU over Wisconsin
5. Oregon over OSU
6. WVU over Pitt (that game never means anything to LSU)
etc.
In the end, if I were a betting man and LSU lost to Arky by less than a TD I would say 75% chance LSU, 20% Bama, 5% Arky
HARRIS POLL
BCS STANDINGS
My Updated Thoughts:
1) REMATCH Bama looks to be in much better shape now with the weekend upsets, but I still think Oklahoma State could pass them with a win over OU - it would be close in my opinion. Ok State's computer score would be much better than Bama's and Oklahoma State would only need ~25% of voters to give them the nod over Bama and that doesn't seem like a hard sell when Bama didn't win their division and already lost to LSU. Losses by Va Tech and Stanford might HURT Alabama because they are stealing some anti-Bama votes from OSU right now.
I think Va Tech's computer score is too weak right now to knock out Bama. But the ACC does have 4 games left against the SEC and a clean sweep could valult Va Tech's computer ranking (not sure it would be enough). Stanford has no real shot unless they maybe squeak in the Pac12 title game - and even then not really.
2) SECCG loss It should be definite now that LSU could lose the SECCG to Georgia and finish 12-1 and easily make the NC game. I can't fathom LSU being left out. I am not even sure we need to show up.
3) 3-WAY SECW TIE?If Arky beats LSU, there will be a 3-way tie to go to the SECCG (provided Bama beats AU). What LSU needs is for Arky to finish third of 3 in the BCS so they get eliminated from the tie breaker and we would go to the SECCG. It doesn't matter if Bama finishes 1st and us 2nd, we would go because of the win over Bama.
While my bet is still on LSU squeaking in, I am more nervous now with the new computer scores. Arky really closed the gap on Alabama and I think could pass Bama in at least a couple computers. LSU would still be solidly above both in the computers, but would it be enough to overcome whatever the human polls do? I still say yes. I would think the difference in the 3 teams in the human polls are razor thin with Bama getting a slight edge because they beat Arky by 24. Then LSU has BY FAR the best resume, but Arky has the most recent win. As long as Bama has a small edge over Arky in the polls and LSU keeps it relatively close (and I mean like 10-20% of voters put LSU over Arky), LSU should be fine. So A blowout loss would be no good.
Now, bad things could happen. We want LSU's and Bama's computer score to be higher than Arky's so other games need to go our way. We would pull for:
1. Bama over AU
2. Texas over A&M
3. Clemson over SC
4. PSU over Wisconsin
5. Oregon over OSU
6. WVU over Pitt (that game never means anything to LSU)
etc.
In the end, if I were a betting man and LSU lost to Arky by less than a TD I would say 75% chance LSU, 20% Bama, 5% Arky
This post was edited on 11/20/11 at 9:14 pm
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:16 pm to lsumatt
We beat Arky we go to the show! No matter what happens in the ATL!
Gotta live our chances!
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Icongeauxtigers.png)
Gotta live our chances!
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Icongeauxtigers.png)
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:18 pm to lsumatt
I see the next BCS standings as...
LSU
Bama
Arky
OSU
VT
But the top 4 mean more than 5-
LSU
Bama
Arky
OSU
VT
But the top 4 mean more than 5-
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:20 pm to lsumatt
I think Arkansas will be in the BCS title game if they beat LSU and Bama beats Auburn. That will move Arkansas up and they won't have to play UGA in the SECCG.
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:21 pm to lsumatt
Can't wait to see what happens after Bama loses to Auburn
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:21 pm to lsumatt
What does it all mean!!!!!!
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/IconLOL.gif)
This post was edited on 11/25/11 at 1:21 pm
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:23 pm to lsumatt
If we are dealing in the hypothetical that LSU loses on Friday, I think today was a bad day. We needed Oregon and Oklahoma to be ranked in the top five, because voters would not have moved LSU below Arkansas if Arkansas were ranked 5th or 6th prior to the game. But with them ranked 3rd, I could easily see the rankings being Bama, Arky, LSU after Arky and Bama wins next weekend.
Are you saying that if Arky is 2 in the polls and LSU is 3, that our computer advantage would outweigh that and still put us at 2 in the BCS?
Are you saying that if Arky is 2 in the polls and LSU is 3, that our computer advantage would outweigh that and still put us at 2 in the BCS?
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:26 pm to lsumatt
OSU is loved by the computers. I fear thier human vote just took a major hit though. Matt, how badly if at all do you believe the human vote will be opposed to a re-match? That, I believe, will be the determining factor. If voters are split between bama and OSU, the cowboys computer score should vault them. Logical assumption?
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:28 pm to lsumatt
quote:
ACC does have 4 games left against the SEC
Florida, Georgia, USCe...
Which one am I missing??
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:29 pm to lsumatt
I'll say that it is now a complete possibility that I wrote off last nite that it could be an LSU/Arky rematch in the BCS
Arky beats LSU
OU beats OSU
You have to choose between Bama and LSU to go. I believe we would have the computer edge over Bama. The pollsters SHOULD rank us ahead of Bama since we beat them.
Who knows.
Have to see what happens. But it sure is fun to talk about
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/IconLOL.gif)
Arky beats LSU
OU beats OSU
You have to choose between Bama and LSU to go. I believe we would have the computer edge over Bama. The pollsters SHOULD rank us ahead of Bama since we beat them.
Who knows.
Have to see what happens. But it sure is fun to talk about
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:30 pm to lsumatt
I still think OSU might end up #3 tomorrow. They'll likely be #2 in at least 4 out of the 6 polls from what I could tell (Colley, Sagarin, Billingsley, and Wolfe) because their leads in those are so big from Bama.
Furthermore, Arky will not be #4 on average in the computers. They will be #5 or worse in 3 of them.
The question tonight will depend on how the voters place Okie State after the loss. If they get at least fully 4th in the human polls, they'll still remain ahead of an Arkansas that is likely more than 2 full spots behind in the computer rankings.
If LSU beats Arky and UGA, and OSU beats OU, then I don't think people will put OSU behind VT, Boise, or Stanford and they'll clearly be #3. Then it will come down to those for and against a rematch. If OSU gets a solid #2 in the computers (which is likely), they'll only need 25%+1 of the voters in both human polls to put them in over Bama.
Furthermore, Arky will not be #4 on average in the computers. They will be #5 or worse in 3 of them.
The question tonight will depend on how the voters place Okie State after the loss. If they get at least fully 4th in the human polls, they'll still remain ahead of an Arkansas that is likely more than 2 full spots behind in the computer rankings.
If LSU beats Arky and UGA, and OSU beats OU, then I don't think people will put OSU behind VT, Boise, or Stanford and they'll clearly be #3. Then it will come down to those for and against a rematch. If OSU gets a solid #2 in the computers (which is likely), they'll only need 25%+1 of the voters in both human polls to put them in over Bama.
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:37 pm to lsumatt
quote:
Bama looks to be in good shape now for a rematch
I'm willing to wager that there will be no Alabama-LSU rematch if there is another one-loss BCS conference champion available.
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:51 pm to lsumatt
Voters could give OSU a little love after the plane crash and death of the OSU coaches two days ago..
Posted on 11/19/11 at 11:58 pm to lsumatt
If LSU wins out, we are in.
No one is really talkin about VaTech, but they COULD sneak in if human polls are so against the rematch. They are at 10-1, probably at 5 or 6 this week, have to play a surprisingly good UVA this weekend, Arky will lose and VaTech will be around 4. THEN they have to play a 12 or 13 ranked Clemson in the ACCCG. Win that, they are 12-1, won a conference championship game, and ranked very high...
No one is really talkin about VaTech, but they COULD sneak in if human polls are so against the rematch. They are at 10-1, probably at 5 or 6 this week, have to play a surprisingly good UVA this weekend, Arky will lose and VaTech will be around 4. THEN they have to play a 12 or 13 ranked Clemson in the ACCCG. Win that, they are 12-1, won a conference championship game, and ranked very high...
Posted on 11/20/11 at 12:12 am to lsumatt
Ok St loses and falls one sot in the BCS. Sounds familiar. Okie state did lose on the road. That counts for something (And in OT Too!)
Posted on 11/20/11 at 2:42 am to lsumatt
Crazy stuff, but LSU doesn't lose to the Pigs. (or UGGA) I doubt Auburn beats AL but they're playing at home and I would think will put forth a good effort. All the results of yesterday tell me is how much better LSU is than the rest of college football this year -- OU and Oregon go down, and AL gives up 3 TDs to freakin' Ga. Southern. Really, after LSU wins these next 2 games the Tigers should be declared national champions by public acclamation. ![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/IconPimp.gif)
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/IconPimp.gif)
Posted on 11/20/11 at 6:40 am to lsumatt
Tough on who? That is now becoming the question by the college football world this season. Instead of, ” Is LSU tough enough to keep beating the good college football team on this 2011 LSU schedule." The truth had a way of rising into the sun light. Les Miles trained this LSU team double time to play a hard game against Oregon. They won that first game 40-27. And now we all know that because of that spring & fall training. This 2011 LSU fighting tiger team is a very tough bunch on the LSU opponents.
When the other teams comes to play this year LSU football team. The obvious answer to the question will be ” the LSU football game is going to be tough on you”
The great talent depth on this LSU football team is remarkable. And they have indeed been trained for victory.
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Iconcheers.gif)
When the other teams comes to play this year LSU football team. The obvious answer to the question will be ” the LSU football game is going to be tough on you”
The great talent depth on this LSU football team is remarkable. And they have indeed been trained for victory.
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Iconcheers.gif)
Posted on 11/20/11 at 7:09 am to lsumatt
Matt...thanks again for great discussion on the BCS. I repeatedly asked for your BCS Discussion yesterday to be stickied, and kept bumping it to the top, but this one is even better since it's updated.
I very much appreciate what you do and your thoughtful analysis that is included in your posts.![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Iconcheers.gif)
I very much appreciate what you do and your thoughtful analysis that is included in your posts.
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Iconcheers.gif)
Posted on 11/20/11 at 10:00 am to lsumatt
Thanks for your insight...and the headache after reading through all of this. Hopefully, the Tigers win out! ![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Icongeauxtigers.png)
![](https://images.tigerdroppings.com/Images/Icons/Icongeauxtigers.png)
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