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Started By
Message
re: No Flow Rates, Levee System failure scenario.. quite possible
Posted on 5/21/11 at 10:38 am to TNhillbilly
Posted on 5/21/11 at 10:38 am to TNhillbilly
quote:
Here's a site I just found. Hover over the dots to get info. Not all gage stations have flow rate.It is in the 1.4's in BR.
Flow rates were widely available on many websites until last week. They started dropping off one by one, and now I have not been able to find any site that shows flow rates.
The critical flow rate is the one at Natchez. Knowing that rate tells you how much they have to pull off at ORCS and Morganza to keep Baton Rouge below 1.5 and New Orleans below 1.25. If anyone knows where to find that datum point, I would like to see it.
3
Posted on 5/21/11 at 11:24 am to JudgeHolden
It's human nature to laugh or poke fun at things which bother us even a little. Hell, I do it all the time.
There a a ton of funny replies on here, and I'm laughing with you all.
BUT
No one has psoted a reply that in any way discredits most of his statements.
Laugh at his CAPS LOCK issue or his spelling or even the wacky terrorist comment, but none of you have any real information that take away his credibility on the flow rate/levee structure/flood stress or all of them combined.
All I've come up with is that JudgeH has basically proven teh guy correct on the posting of the flow rate issues.
And for all you morons that think the feds can take care of anything designed forty years ago, take a drive down the nearest paved road.
I would have to believe that the levees were constructed in the same principle design that failed in New Orleans under a LOT LESS stress.
Do you really think these are all stable under the most stress they have ever encountered?
There a a ton of funny replies on here, and I'm laughing with you all.
BUT
No one has psoted a reply that in any way discredits most of his statements.
Laugh at his CAPS LOCK issue or his spelling or even the wacky terrorist comment, but none of you have any real information that take away his credibility on the flow rate/levee structure/flood stress or all of them combined.
All I've come up with is that JudgeH has basically proven teh guy correct on the posting of the flow rate issues.
And for all you morons that think the feds can take care of anything designed forty years ago, take a drive down the nearest paved road.
I would have to believe that the levees were constructed in the same principle design that failed in New Orleans under a LOT LESS stress.
Do you really think these are all stable under the most stress they have ever encountered?
Posted on 5/21/11 at 11:30 am to shaunmccarron29
Translation: When the levee breaks, we'll have no place to stay.
It's not exactly news.
In fact, it's as German as Zeppelins.
It's not exactly news.
In fact, it's as German as Zeppelins.
This post was edited on 5/21/11 at 11:35 am
Posted on 5/21/11 at 11:39 am to JudgeHolden
quote:
The critical flow rate is the one at Natchez. Knowing that rate tells you how much they have to pull off at ORCS and Morganza to keep Baton Rouge below 1.5 and New Orleans below 1.25. If anyone knows where to find that datum point, I would like to see it.
This site shows a chart of "Current High Water Flows". It's supposed to be showing in real time but as far as I can see it seems to be only updated once or twice a day. I hope that helps.
Posted on 5/21/11 at 11:44 am to lsuwahmom
So the guys estimations/rates in his OP are accurate?
Posted on 5/21/11 at 12:10 pm to the LSUSaint
quote:
none of you have any real information that take away his credibility on the flow rate/levee structure/flood stress or all of them combined.
What credibility does he have? He hasn't proven anything. Just tin foil on head speculation.
quote:
for all you morons that think the feds can take care of anything designed forty years ago, take a drive down the nearest paved road
Are you trying to compare pavement design to levee design?
Posted on 5/21/11 at 12:41 pm to DollaChoppa
Posted on 5/21/11 at 12:47 pm to lsuwahmom
quote:
This site shows a chart of "Current High Water Flows". It's supposed to be showing in real time but as far as I can see it seems to be only updated once or twice a day. I hope that helps.
Does that add up? Natchez is below capacity, as is Morganza. So the difference between the maxflow at Natchez plus the excess capacity at Morganza plus the EXTRA being pulled off at ORCS and Boneet Carre should be the amount BELOW which New Orleans is below capacity. I ran the numbers in my head and could not make them work, but I have been up for about 22 hours. Could someone straighten me out? I must be missing something.
Posted on 5/21/11 at 12:54 pm to JudgeHolden
Vicksburg is at 2.31 per the web link I gave on pg1. Subtract the .65 or so for Old river locks and .15-ish for Morganza (didn't take the time to look up the current real values) and that gets you pretty close to the 1.5 number for BR.
Posted on 5/21/11 at 1:22 pm to TNhillbilly
Who let's these USL grads on the Internet?
Posted on 5/21/11 at 1:28 pm to agdoctor
quote:Where?
Flow rates are posted around the clock
It's been several days now that the -999 flow rate has been showing for the gauges on the Mississippi River by this National Weather Service web site (water.weather.gov) - for example:
Mississippi River at Red River Landing
Posted on 5/21/11 at 1:47 pm to shaunmccarron29
quote:The damage to the Old River Control Structure in 1973 was similar to the phenomenon discussed in that video.
You will see that what the real danger lies in the fact that with the Flow Rate being so high for an extended period of time (weeks maybe months), Erosion of the levee system is inevitable.
NOAA report SR/SSD 98-9:
FLOODS ON THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI: AN HISTORICAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
quote:
It was in 1973 that the strain of record high volume flow nearly caused failure of the Old River Control Structure,
Scouring almost caused the failure of ORCS and it's one of the effects that can undermine levees.
Times Picayune, May 5, 2011
quote:
Jindal also said the Corps of Engineers and area levee districts will move into a daily inspection of area levees to guard scouring or sand boils that could harm the integrity of the levees.
Posted on 5/21/11 at 1:52 pm to DollaChoppa
quote:This.
DollaChoppa
Posted on 5/21/11 at 2:38 pm to DollaChoppa
quote:
What credibility does he have? He hasn't proven anything. Just tin foil on head speculation.
Well, tell me something that you know that says this process doesn't happen as discussed. I can know for sure he has spent more time studying the levee situation thatn you have.
quote:
Are you trying to compare pavement design to levee design
NO, I'm comparing the governing body in charge of both, which is one and the same. THE GOVERNMENT.
So my question is, Name something that the Feds control for over forty years that isn't a failure and/or broke (either physically or monetarily)?
This post was edited on 5/21/11 at 2:39 pm
Posted on 5/21/11 at 3:03 pm to the LSUSaint
LSU Saint.
You are making the same points I would. No one is addressing the issues in the OP and no one answered my previous question.
Because they don't know.
It's easier to post funnies.
And I am with you about all this great trust in the government. I am shocked anyone has any faith in it anymore.
You are making the same points I would. No one is addressing the issues in the OP and no one answered my previous question.
Because they don't know.
It's easier to post funnies.
And I am with you about all this great trust in the government. I am shocked anyone has any faith in it anymore.
This post was edited on 5/21/11 at 3:07 pm
Posted on 5/21/11 at 3:21 pm to Tigertown in ATL
quote:
And I am with you about all this great trust in the government.
Ants are gonna march..
Posted on 5/21/11 at 3:24 pm to the LSUSaint
quote:
I can know for sure he has spent more time studying the levee situation thatn you have.
And I can know for sure that the ACOE has spent more time studying the levee situation than he has.
quote:
So my question is, Name something that the Feds control for over forty years that isn't a failure and/or broke (either physically or monetarily)?
Well I'd have to say that the levees seem to be in good condition since they are doing their job right now.
Also, roads aren't design for 40 years of service life without maintenance.
Your government rant reflects poorly on whatever argument you are trying to make.
Posted on 5/21/11 at 6:27 pm to shaunmccarron29
MAYBE I'LL CATCH THEIR ATTENTION WITH LARGE CAPITAL LETTERS
Posted on 5/21/11 at 6:31 pm to shaunmccarron29
Posted on 5/21/11 at 7:11 pm to Tigertown in ATL
quote:
is there no validity to any of it?
He hypothesizes that 100% of the Vicksburg flow goes to New Orleans. That is incorrect. The ORCS can handle 620,000 cfs of water and the Morganza, at full capacity, can absorb 600,000 cfs. That allows less than 1.5M to flow by Baton Rouge, and combined with the Bonnet Carre, New Orleans only sees 1.1 to 1.2M cfs.
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