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Started By
Message
portfolio allocations when us debt is 100% of gdp and climbing
Posted on 4/20/26 at 6:42 pm
Posted on 4/20/26 at 6:42 pm
debt levels approaching danger zone
PSA: the brilliant jeffrey gundlach recently suggested debt levels, dollar debasement and the end of the petrodollar as serious macro trends investors need to consider.
He suggested:
20% cash
15 -20 in hard assets (gold preferred, real estate an option)
30% in stocks, preferred non-us and currency hedged if possible
35% in a 1-5 (max) bond ladder,
plan accordingly
PSA: the brilliant jeffrey gundlach recently suggested debt levels, dollar debasement and the end of the petrodollar as serious macro trends investors need to consider.
He suggested:
20% cash
15 -20 in hard assets (gold preferred, real estate an option)
30% in stocks, preferred non-us and currency hedged if possible
35% in a 1-5 (max) bond ladder,
plan accordingly
6
Posted on 4/20/26 at 7:12 pm to biscuitsngravy
55% in cash or short duration bonds wouldn’t be my prescription for financial repression. Maybe that’s a suggestion for the ultra wealthy?
Posted on 4/20/26 at 8:37 pm to biscuitsngravy
I’m ~60% S&P index, ~40% individual stocks, 0 cash.
I just don’t see the benefit of holding cash at my age
ETA: It would have helped to disclose my age, 37. I tried holding my cash, but just can’t pass on Salesforce, Adobe, Nike and Paypal. Been putting every extra dollar into these.
I just don’t see the benefit of holding cash at my age
ETA: It would have helped to disclose my age, 37. I tried holding my cash, but just can’t pass on Salesforce, Adobe, Nike and Paypal. Been putting every extra dollar into these.
This post was edited on 4/20/26 at 8:44 pm
Posted on 4/20/26 at 9:36 pm to biscuitsngravy
He has been saying that for years. Following his advice thus far would be nothing short of disastrous.
Posted on 4/20/26 at 9:38 pm to biscuitsngravy
quote:
dollar debasement
quote:WTF is this dude an idiot? Dollar will debase. Oh btw, hold 20% of your portfolio in those debasing dollars.
20% cash
Posted on 4/20/26 at 11:15 pm to biscuitsngravy
OK beartard
Posted on 4/21/26 at 6:09 am to CecilShortsHisPants
quote:
I’m ~60% S&P index, ~40% individual stocks, 0 cash.
I just don’t see the benefit of holding cash at my age
ETA: It would have helped to disclose my age, 37
I was your age in 2008 and had the same mindset. It will test your mettle to watch everything you’ve invested in get cut in half. TLT and short bonds jumped as there was a flight to safety. Markets eventually came roaring back but at that point in time nobody knew what was going to happen.
As per the OP, it’s a complicated question. If there’s a major financial shock everything but cash will crash. 100% correlation for stocks, bonds, metals, etc. Then having cash to buy in would be helpful when we’re at maximum blood in the streets. In 2008 the Fed cutting rates to damn near zero was the solution. Not sure that works with a debt crisis.
If it’s slow debasement then blue chip stocks seem the safest haven. Overlay what the S&P has done since we closed the gold window in 1971. If we have a true currency crisis I would imagine intl blue chips and commodity stocks would as safe a place as anywhere
Posted on 4/21/26 at 7:57 am to biscuitsngravy
quote:Pretty much sounds like standard Gundlach fare. He's a fixed income guy.
He suggested:
20% cash
15 -20 in hard assets (gold preferred, real estate an option)
30% in stocks, preferred non-us and currency hedged if possible
35% in a 1-5 (max) bond ladder,
But he's also right, that as foreign reticence to invest in relatively low ROI US debt instruments grows, there obviously will be upward pressure on rates. Upward pressure will be exacerbated if drawdown on the SSTF is unabated over the next few years. So it's a reasonable argument, and especially worth considering as individual risk tolerance gains in priority over ROI, e.g., toward retirement.
In my experience, if you can weather volatility, stocks outperform bonds. So fwiw, I'm ~75% stocks 15% FI/RE 10% cash.
Posted on 4/21/26 at 8:12 am to beaverfever
quote:
55% in cash or short duration bonds wouldn’t be my prescription for financial repression
This!
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