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Started By
Message
Oil Prices Still Up, But Rig Count Dropped Week over Week
Posted on 3/28/26 at 8:34 am
Posted on 3/28/26 at 8:34 am
quote:
The total number of active drilling rigs for oil and gas in the United States fell this week, according to new data that Baker Hughes published on Friday, bringing the total rig count in the US to 543, down 49 from this same time last year.
The number of active oil rigs fell by 5 to 409 during the latest reporting period, according to the data. This is 75 below this same time last year. The number of gas rigs fell by 4, sinking to 127, which is 24 more than this time last year. The miscellaneous rig count stayed the same at 7.
The latest EIA data showed that weekly U.S. crude oil production fell for the fifth week in a row during week ending March 20. US crude oil production averaged 13.657 million bpd during the reporting period—a 11,000 bpd dip from the week prior, and 205,000 bpd under the all-time high.
quote:
The number of active drilling rigs in the Permian Basin fell by 2, reaching 241, which is 56 rigs under year-ago levels. The count in the Eagle Ford stayed the same at 42, which is 6 fewer than this same time last year.
Oil prices remain elevated amid the conflict in the Middle East, with tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz still effectively stalled. Brent crude is currently trading $111.80 (+3.39%) per barrel, while WTI is holding above $98.
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Posted on 3/28/26 at 9:39 am to ragincajun03
truck nuts [CONFUSED] on off
Posted on 3/28/26 at 9:41 am to ragincajun03
Capital is not (allocated) so dynamic nor are rig lease contracts. What is scheduled today was planned for last year or earlier.
This post was edited on 3/28/26 at 9:42 am
Posted on 3/28/26 at 9:48 am to ragincajun03
Everyone with any sense knows that oil prices aren't staying up and Trump will get them down way before mid-terms. He is going to keep them in the 60's until he thinks the economy is ready, inflation is under control and we get rate cuts, then he'll allow them to come up and stabilize between $70-80, but mostly average $72-75. With that price stability and Iran neutered, you'll see drill baby drill. Also, leaner times forces producers to become leaner and more efficient creating an environment where they can make bank at lower levels.
Posted on 3/28/26 at 9:56 am to SmackoverHawg
You put a lot of faith in a man controlling something that has typically been controlled by nothing but chaos. I hope you're right though.
The way I see it, unless the people in Iran stand up for themselves we're in a long drawn out war to do it for them or else it just devolves to it's previous state. Iran will continue to do it's best to spite the rest of the world in the process.
The way I see it, unless the people in Iran stand up for themselves we're in a long drawn out war to do it for them or else it just devolves to it's previous state. Iran will continue to do it's best to spite the rest of the world in the process.
Posted on 3/28/26 at 10:14 am to AllDayEveryDay
It's made me literally millions over the past year+. Just like April 4th last year when he said "Today is a good day to buy stocks and make a lot of money." I loaded up. For the past year, it prices got below $60, he do or say something to bring them up. Near $70 or over, the reverse would be true. He's said in the past he thought mid $70's (WTI) was the sweet spot and most everyone I know in O&G agrees.
It's certainly not scientific, but he always has a plan whether the public sees it or not. I'm up over 100% on the energy stocks I bought last March and April. I'll hold some in case I'm wrong, but my gut has served me well for 2 decades. I've lost some weight though. Not sure if that makes it dumber or smarter. I also anticipate people that bought the big dip last year taking profits as they go long term. I'd been planning for a dip this time this year since last year. Even before Iran kicked off, so I'm well positioned with plenty of cash and I have enormous amount of O&G stocks going long term April 7th and 8th. I'm hoping they'll take another leg up like they did this week before then. I'm also hoping everything else takes a shite, to make it easier to see where to re-deploy my profits.
It's certainly not scientific, but he always has a plan whether the public sees it or not. I'm up over 100% on the energy stocks I bought last March and April. I'll hold some in case I'm wrong, but my gut has served me well for 2 decades. I've lost some weight though. Not sure if that makes it dumber or smarter. I also anticipate people that bought the big dip last year taking profits as they go long term. I'd been planning for a dip this time this year since last year. Even before Iran kicked off, so I'm well positioned with plenty of cash and I have enormous amount of O&G stocks going long term April 7th and 8th. I'm hoping they'll take another leg up like they did this week before then. I'm also hoping everything else takes a shite, to make it easier to see where to re-deploy my profits.
Posted on 3/28/26 at 10:24 am to ragincajun03
Energy prices stacked
People fricked.
People fricked.
Posted on 3/28/26 at 10:24 am to Everyday Is Saturday
This.....i have one client that will wait a few months for a better rig after this pad. We been dealing with the shite rig for 6 months now
This post was edited on 3/28/26 at 10:25 am
Posted on 3/28/26 at 10:35 am to SmackoverHawg
quote:
He's said in the past he thought mid $70's (WTI) was the sweet spot and most everyone I know in O&G agrees.
The President has said he wants oil at $50. But yes, I agree mid 70s would be a nice sweet spot, though that doesn’t appear to be what he was aiming for.
Posted on 3/28/26 at 11:26 am to ragincajun03
Quick price fluctuation won’t change rig financing
Posted on 3/28/26 at 11:56 am to ragincajun03
quote:
He's said in the past he thought mid $70's (WTI) was the sweet spot and most everyone I know in O&G agrees.
The President has said he wants oil at $50. But yes, I agree mid 70s would be a nice sweet spot, though that doesn’t appear to be what he was aiming for.
That's more recent comments. Short term to get inflation and rates down. The $70 comments were before he even ran the first time. He's said it since with the qualifier of when the economy is doing well. COVID threw a monkey wrench in everything. I'm still long on energy, but think we'll get some bargains this summer and fall.
Posted on 3/28/26 at 12:33 pm to ragincajun03
Talked to a buddy who said drilling pipe and supplies are falling off due to where they are manufactured
Posted on 3/28/26 at 12:39 pm to SmackoverHawg
quote:This was the bottom last year if anyone was curious.
April 7th and 8th
Posted on 3/28/26 at 12:44 pm to SmackoverHawg
quote:
going to keep them in the 60's until he thinks the economy is ready
Outside of a global recession/export ban, you’re cuckoo if you think we see $60/bbl oil. I don’t hate Trump, but he’s just flailing in the wind right now and is clueless how to extricate himself from this mess.
Even prior to this little expedition capex has been dwindling, as well as oil in storage. At some point in the future if we don’t start drilling, there’s going to be major problems. I’m not even aware of any planned large GOA projects.
This post was edited on 3/28/26 at 12:48 pm
Posted on 3/28/26 at 1:14 pm to TJG210
quote:
Outside of a global recession/export ban, you’re cuckoo if you think we see $60/bbl oil. I don’t hate Trump, but he’s just flailing in the wind right now and is clueless how to extricate himself from this mess.
Even prior to this little expedition capex has been dwindling, as well as oil in storage. At some point in the future if we don’t start drilling, there’s going to be major problems. I’m not even aware of any planned large GOA projects.
Time will tell. Like I said, I'm long on oil and gas. Even if I lock in profits now, I'll still have substantial holdings. Every time I hear he's clueless and flailing, he pulls a rabbit out of his arse and things recover.
Clueless? Nah. Just because he doesn't tell everyone his plan doesn't mean there isn't one. What good is it to panic and fret over something you have no control over any way?
A month and a day ago, all the exports were blathering about an oil glut and oversupply crashing prices into the $40's and even $30's. 4 weeks later, it's gloom and doom the opposite way.
Posted on 3/28/26 at 1:19 pm to ragincajun03
$100 oil today is only $65 oil in 2008, around the last time she hit $100.
So, yea, it’s not the same “boom” that was experienced then.
It would need to get to $154 to match up. This is why energy companies are not even thinking about ramping up capex , and therefore service companies also are not ramping up capex either . In fact , both sectors are still letting people go
Another thing to think of. In the 2008 boom, energy was wide open. The price was being determined by demand. Now, the price is being determined by supply. Energy leaders know that supply will come back once this Middle East conflict is over, so why make big investments
So, yea, it’s not the same “boom” that was experienced then.
It would need to get to $154 to match up. This is why energy companies are not even thinking about ramping up capex , and therefore service companies also are not ramping up capex either . In fact , both sectors are still letting people go
Another thing to think of. In the 2008 boom, energy was wide open. The price was being determined by demand. Now, the price is being determined by supply. Energy leaders know that supply will come back once this Middle East conflict is over, so why make big investments
This post was edited on 3/28/26 at 2:10 pm
Posted on 3/28/26 at 2:07 pm to SmackoverHawg
quote:
A month and a day ago, all the exports were blathering about an oil glut and oversupply crashing prices into the $40's and even $30's. 4 weeks later, it's gloom and doom the opposite way.
That was a narrative, but I follow several industry accounts with numbers that didn’t show that at all. Demand is growing, supply is trending down….Permian production is trending down, gulf of America hasn’t had a major discovery in awhile…
Like you, I’ve positioned myself well for this and what I feel the future likely holds.
quote:
Clueless? Nah. Just because he doesn't tell everyone his plan doesn't mean there isn't one. What good is it to panic and fret over something you have no control over any way?
Other than an export ban, what tools does he have? Having the treasury shorting oil is only going to cause the opposite effect eventually if things don’t come to a conclusion.
Posted on 3/28/26 at 2:24 pm to evil cockroach
quote:
This is why energy companies are not even thinking about ramping up capex , and therefore service companies also are not ramping up capex either
I agree with that, however, given the length of time from planning to first oil, I don’t know this is a great strategy. At some point we’ll realize we’re in a supply deficit and at that point it will be too late. I think part of this problem stems from the giant gap between the two parties regarding energy and CEO’s not wanting to get caught with their pants down if/when the White House changes hands. Alan Armstrong Former CEO of WMB bristled when Trump mentioned reviving a northeast pipeline project due to the fact they could conceivably invest a billion into the project, only for politicians to shut it down.
Posted on 3/28/26 at 2:48 pm to SmackoverHawg
quote:
Clueless? Nah. Just because he doesn't tell everyone his plan doesn't mean there isn't one. What good is it to panic and fret over something you have no control over any way?
He’s also been lying constantly in attempts to tamp down the price, if he had better options I’m sure he’d be using them.
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