WSJ:Crime is way down, it could be anything... except immigration enforcement...

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What’s Behind the Historic Drop in U.S. Crime
Explanations for the fall range from tougher policing to societal changes like less alcohol consumption and more time spent alone

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Last year, homicide rates slid below 2015 levels to the lowest rate in a decade in more than half of 58 cities tracked by the Major Cities Chiefs Association.
Steep drop-offs extended to cities that still have some of the country’s highest per capita homicide levels. From 2020 to 2025, the homicide rate plunged 59% in Baltimore, 43% in St. Louis and 39% in New Orleans. Honolulu, El Paso and Austin, Texas, were the only cities among the 58 where homicide rates rose for the period.

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Rafael Mangual, a fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank, attributes falling crime in the U.S. partly to people’s changing behavior, including diminished alcohol use.

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In terms of policy, he emphasized a rightward shift. “There has been a general trend toward more arrests, more enforcement, more stops, higher rates of prosecution and obviously an increase in the prison population,” he said.

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To veteran researcher John Roman, the crime reduction is a national story with a handful of broad explanations. He cited a return to normal routines following the pandemic, and an easing of volatility in illicit drug markets post-Covid. In addition, he credited the influx of billions of dollars in federal pandemic aid that restored more than one million local government jobs.

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