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Ever have an investment you can never time right?
Posted on 2/11/26 at 10:52 am
Posted on 2/11/26 at 10:52 am
I sat with Palantir for a couple of years ‘21-23 (I think) hearing about how it was the next big thing as it went sideways. Finally bailed on it breaking about even, losing nothing but opportunity cost. Then it starts to go up and I get in again and it almost immediately tanks (on a percentage basis). I felt personally responsible.
Similar story with a small investment in bitcoin. Got in in late 2022. Went more or less sideways for a year or so then jumped out. Went up again, so stuck my toe back in to a falling knife.
Cant complain too much as neither was a large position, but for some reason I just can’t win with these investments. I’m holding both now and accepting they may never go up but at least I won’t have to watch them rise from the sidelines.
Similar story with a small investment in bitcoin. Got in in late 2022. Went more or less sideways for a year or so then jumped out. Went up again, so stuck my toe back in to a falling knife.
Cant complain too much as neither was a large position, but for some reason I just can’t win with these investments. I’m holding both now and accepting they may never go up but at least I won’t have to watch them rise from the sidelines.
9
Posted on 2/11/26 at 11:23 am to PNW_TigerSaint
I think we all feel that way.
Posted on 2/11/26 at 11:26 am to PNW_TigerSaint
Ever have an investment you can never time right?!!!
I married her!
I married her!
Posted on 2/11/26 at 11:38 am to PNW_TigerSaint
quote:
losing nothing but opportunity cost
So much to reflect upon in your post. A couple reflections...
The argument against timing the market is one of respecting opportunity cost. I have found opportunity cost to be worth more than the timed investment most of the time. Therefore, I don't do it (anymore).
Compounding cash is a beautiful thing (1+k)^n - timing the market is k. Don't underestimate n. Time (not timing) is an investment tool that is often underestimated, powerful and smooths out the swings & misses. Its boring (eg, DCA). But it is damn effective.
That said, have some fun investment money for the big swings to create amplitude where DCA smooths it out. Life is short.
Just keep in balance.
In summary, F you, timing.
Posted on 2/11/26 at 12:08 pm to PNW_TigerSaint
Monday, I was up big mid-afternoon with some tech holdings I'd had for a short time, so I took the profits. Well CRDO was one of them, and it was some hyperscaler like GOOG or AMZN who announced a massive capex commitment in their earnings that afternoon and CRDO ballooned on the news, up to like 19% after hours and kept rallying the next day 
This post was edited on 2/11/26 at 1:51 pm
Posted on 2/11/26 at 1:23 pm to PNW_TigerSaint
“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
My Salesforce shares are down 5% today because Benioff made an ICE joke at an event yesterday.
My Salesforce shares are down 5% today because Benioff made an ICE joke at an event yesterday.
Posted on 2/11/26 at 2:05 pm to PNW_TigerSaint
I’m the best at timing the wrong.
Bought SLI at $12.30’s and Soun and $10.50
Bought SLI at $12.30’s and Soun and $10.50
Posted on 2/11/26 at 2:09 pm to PNW_TigerSaint
You should not buy an individual stock unless you are willing to hold it for 5 years. if you buy quality stocks, you will almost always catch a nice run up in the 5 year period.
Posted on 2/11/26 at 3:34 pm to PNW_TigerSaint
I usually make a pretty big investment in my index funds at the beginning of the year and I feel like too often the last few years a precipitous, albeit short lived, drop immediately follows.
This post was edited on 2/11/26 at 3:35 pm
Posted on 2/11/26 at 5:24 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
quote:
I usually make a pretty big investment in my index funds at the beginning of the year and I feel like too often the last few years a precipitous, albeit short lived, drop immediately follows.
Link to the world worst market timer.
LINK
Posted on 2/11/26 at 5:50 pm to makersmark1
quote:
Link to the world worst market timer.
Ya, a rather well known (or should be) example.
Posted on 2/11/26 at 6:00 pm to Rize
quote:
Soun and $10.50
I have SOUN at $10.64
Posted on 2/11/26 at 6:49 pm to SidewalkTiger
quote:
I have SOUN at $10.64
I’ll be buying more soon and save some if it goes down further.
Posted on 2/12/26 at 7:06 am to PNW_TigerSaint
Sounds more like a trade than an investment
Posted on 2/13/26 at 9:18 am to SidewalkTiger
quote:
I have SOUN at $10.72
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