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RPI Rant
Posted on 2/12/09 at 2:37 pm
Posted on 2/12/09 at 2:37 pm
As many of you know, I am big fan of computer polls in football. They aren't perfect, but they are objective and they average 6 of them together. They are pretty good about treating a #75 team almost equally with a #120 team, which I think is good.I never followed RPI much, but I always thought it gave screwy results. It seems you are waaaaay better off playing really bad teams than really awful teams for your SOS (I contend you ought to beat either one). Moreover, it seems to give too much influence to SOS.
Here's the kicker, and I might be wrong, but I just did some back-of-the-envelope math and I think if you replace LSU's win over Alcorn State for example with a LOSS to Duke, our RPI goes up. So how does LOSING to a really good team make you a better team? Me and 4 of my buddies could lose to Duke.
Now, I know LSU has played an easy schedule and they don't deserve to be put with other 4-loss teams that played tough ones. But I think LSU's RPI is a little deflated due to some oversimplified RPI formulas
Here's the kicker, and I might be wrong, but I just did some back-of-the-envelope math and I think if you replace LSU's win over Alcorn State for example with a LOSS to Duke, our RPI goes up. So how does LOSING to a really good team make you a better team? Me and 4 of my buddies could lose to Duke.
Now, I know LSU has played an easy schedule and they don't deserve to be put with other 4-loss teams that played tough ones. But I think LSU's RPI is a little deflated due to some oversimplified RPI formulas
This post was edited on 2/12/09 at 2:39 pm
6
Posted on 2/12/09 at 2:42 pm to lsumatt
It depends on where the teams play wrt your Duke example.
Posted on 2/12/09 at 2:44 pm to lsumatt
quote:
but I just did some back-of-the-envelope math and I think if you replace LSU's win over Alcorn State for example with a LOSS to Duke, our RPI goes up.
I remember in 2000 when we were RPI watching, St Johns lost a mid-season game at Duke by 35 and their RPI went up the next week.
Posted on 2/12/09 at 2:45 pm to lsumatt
One could make the argument that losing to Duke, rather than beating a cream puff shows some amount of effort and risk-taking (to play a tougher schedule) that should perhaps be rewarded.
By the way, always enjoy your math posts.
By the way, always enjoy your math posts.
Posted on 2/12/09 at 2:47 pm to lsumatt
i have zero problem withe formulation. In a tourney that must select from 300+ DI teams this is a necessary evil to ensure that every team with a nice record against shithole competition doesn't make it to the dance. I also like that in theory it should reward fans with interesting OOC matchups.
Posted on 2/12/09 at 2:50 pm to lsumatt
quote:
Moreover, it seems to give too much influence to SOS.
Definitely. Football doesn't factor it in enough, basketball does too much I think. We should work on making our own computer poll that's an extension of the RPI
Posted on 2/12/09 at 3:50 pm to lsumatt
quote:
Here's the kicker, and I might be wrong, but I just did some back-of-the-envelope math and I think if you replace LSU's win over Alcorn State for example with a LOSS to Duke, our RPI goes up.
I was seriously wondering the other day whether our loss at home to Xavier was helping our RPI more than our win at Tennessee. Since the SOS only counts winning percentages and doesn't count what the team's ranking is, we don't get much credit for beating Tennessee even though they are highly ranked in the RPI ratings because their record is mediocre.
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