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Started By
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Latest GDP forecast for the third quarter up 4.2%
Posted on 11/20/25 at 2:09 am
Posted on 11/20/25 at 2:09 am
quote:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 4.2 percent on November 19, up from 4.1 on November 17. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 4.9 percent to 4.8 percent was more than offset by an increase in the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth from 0.57 percentage points to 0.78 percentage points.
Inflation at 2.4%
Inflation has not outpaced wage growth since January. And wages grow when there is a demand for American workers.
BLS surveys say, even by laying off thousands of govt workers, we have gained nearly 2 million jobs for native born workers.
Foreign Direct investment in the 2nd quarter was the highest in 3 years and increasing.
Im having a hard time understanding some of the doom and gloom posting to say the least.
8
Posted on 11/20/25 at 3:30 am to trinidadtiger
Roger will be here at some point to call you a progressive and explain things. Just hold tight.
Posted on 11/20/25 at 3:40 am to trinidadtiger
Cost of energy going down is allowing businesses to start making a profit.
As for the doom and gloomers, it’s about the price of beef with them + allowing the media to manipulate them.
As for the doom and gloomers, it’s about the price of beef with them + allowing the media to manipulate them.
Posted on 11/20/25 at 5:11 am to trinidadtiger
quote:
Latest GDP forecast for the third quarter up 4.2%
We are running a 2.0 trillion deficit. Keynesian economics at its finest.
Posted on 11/20/25 at 5:17 am to trinidadtiger
quote:
BLS surveys say, even by laying off thousands of govt workers, we have gained nearly 2 million jobs for native born workers
This right here makes the dems and panicans tremble with rage.
He. Can't. Keep. Getting. Away. With. It!
Posted on 11/20/25 at 5:17 am to frogtown
Actually froggy its down versus YAG and the 4.2% GDP is versus last year. So what you are saying is even with less govt spending the economy is growing faster. Gotcha.
The dems also make you want to believe the tax cuts were the problem......the tax cuts have been there for years, the BBB stopped them from twilighting, now if that had happened, whoa nelly.
The dems also make you want to believe the tax cuts were the problem......the tax cuts have been there for years, the BBB stopped them from twilighting, now if that had happened, whoa nelly.
This post was edited on 11/20/25 at 5:20 am
Posted on 11/20/25 at 5:23 am to trinidadtiger
quote:
Actually froggy its down versus YAG and the 4.2% GDP is versus last year.
Well what is the final deficit going to be genius? The BBB added to the deficit. If Trump has to give back the tariffs that will add more. If Trump does his $2K stimulus that will add more.
I will say the deficit for both 2025 and 2026 will still be $2.0 trillion. Make your prediction.
This post was edited on 11/20/25 at 5:25 am
Posted on 11/20/25 at 5:29 am to tigerfan 64
It certainly does make the dems angry. Note how they keep hammering the soft job numbers, over and over. Well that kind of happens when you send millions of illegals home.
Im actually amazed the overall job number is positive each month, then you see the survey and realize its because Americans are getting jobs and taking up the slack.
Think about it, if the job market was truly that soft, why on earth would employers be giving 4.2-4.3% wage increases?
Im actually amazed the overall job number is positive each month, then you see the survey and realize its because Americans are getting jobs and taking up the slack.
Think about it, if the job market was truly that soft, why on earth would employers be giving 4.2-4.3% wage increases?
Posted on 11/20/25 at 5:37 am to frogtown
Thanks I did score near mensa in math for my gmats, but Im no genius.
The deficit last year was 1.8 trillion and its running a little less this year and the economy is growing now at over 4%. So that means with no incremental govt spend the economy is growing at a great clip.
I say again the big boogie man in the BBB was the tax cuts. But there were no tax cuts, they just made the ones from years ago permanent, they were already baked in. It was just a shiny object for the dems, and apparently some on this board.
The dems shut down the govt because they wanted to put back in all the things DOGE had cut out, including the fraudulent scheme states were using to rip off medicaid/care for untold billions. So if you want to get angry about deficits.....Id start with those old fellas.
The deficit last year was 1.8 trillion and its running a little less this year and the economy is growing now at over 4%. So that means with no incremental govt spend the economy is growing at a great clip.
I say again the big boogie man in the BBB was the tax cuts. But there were no tax cuts, they just made the ones from years ago permanent, they were already baked in. It was just a shiny object for the dems, and apparently some on this board.
The dems shut down the govt because they wanted to put back in all the things DOGE had cut out, including the fraudulent scheme states were using to rip off medicaid/care for untold billions. So if you want to get angry about deficits.....Id start with those old fellas.
Posted on 11/20/25 at 5:38 am to frogtown
quote:My prediction is Trump will take deficit reduction as far as Congress will allow. Right now, there is neither interest nor appetite to do anything but spend more in Congress.
I will say the deficit for both 2025 and 2026 will still be $2.0 trillion. Make your prediction.
Posted on 11/20/25 at 6:23 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
My prediction is Trump will take deficit reduction as far as Congress will allow
They had them and chose not to use them already. Cuts were in the Fiscal Responsibility Act. Johnson/Trump chose the BBB instead. We could have enacted these cuts in either 2024 or 2025.
The Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) of 2023 is estimated by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to reduce projected budget deficits by approximately $1.5 trillion over the 2024-2033 period, primarily through spending cuts. When including projected net interest savings, the total deficit reduction is estimated at around $1.5 trillion.
The main components contributing to this value are:
Discretionary Spending Caps: The primary source of savings comes from imposing caps on most discretionary funding for fiscal years (FY) 2024 and 2025. This provision alone is expected to account for about $1.3 trillion of the total savings over ten years. These caps also affect projections for future years because subsequent spending levels are assumed to grow with inflation from a lower base.
Rescission of Unobligated COVID-19 Funds: The act rescinds approximately $28 billion in unobligated funds from various pandemic-related spending bills.
Rescission of IRS Funding: The law cuts about $1.4 billion from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) enforcement funding that was originally provided by the Inflation Reduction Act.
Changes to Work Requirements: The act modifies work requirements for recipients of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) benefits, which contributes a minor amount to the overall savings.
Student Loan Repayment: The legislation codified the end of the federal student loan payment pause and interest accrual (effective August 31, 2023), which had cost approximately $4.3 billion per month.
This post was edited on 11/20/25 at 6:55 am
Posted on 11/20/25 at 6:39 am to frogtown
quote:
I will say the deficit for both 2025 and 2026 will still be $2.0 trillion. Make your prediction.
$1.8 trillion for 2025 and $1.5 trillion for 2026.
I am assuming Trump does NOT send out those stupid checks, and the economy grows at between 4% and 5%.
Posted on 11/20/25 at 7:53 am to trinidadtiger
This is good news. I really hope we start seeing positive economic news like this before midterms
Posted on 11/20/25 at 7:55 am to trinidadtiger
quote:
Inflation at 2.4%
This is gonna make many posrers on the MoneyBoard lose it
Posted on 11/20/25 at 7:57 am to Rebel
quote:
it’s about the price of beef
Remember when the economy was clearly in the shitter because of the price of eggs?
Posted on 11/20/25 at 8:00 am to SDVTiger
quote:
This is gonna make many posrers on the MoneyBoard lose it
Pack of idiots over there.
Posted on 11/20/25 at 8:11 am to frogtown
quote:The Fiscal Responsibility Act passed Congress and was signed into law by Potatobrain in 2023.
Cuts were in the Fiscal Responsibility Act. Johnson/Trump chose the BBB instead. We could have enacted these cuts in either 2024 or 2025.
The Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) of 2023
Posted on 11/20/25 at 8:15 am to trinidadtiger
The increase in gdp is from all the insurance premiums going up
Posted on 11/20/25 at 8:17 am to trinidadtiger
quote:
Im having a hard time understanding some of the doom and gloom posting to say the least.
The GDPnpw mode is wildly inaccurate but it is a good indicator.
A significant portion of those investments and the growth is related to AI. Most other sectors of the economy are down significantly and are in cost-cutting modes.
But more importantly, there doesn’t seem to be any significant momentum building towards 2026 being a gangbuster year….just more of the same.
But if you think the economy is awesome, good for you.
Posted on 11/20/25 at 8:19 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
The Fiscal Responsibility Act passed Congress and was signed into law by Potatobrain in 2023.
That is right. We had two years to use the leverage in the bill which would have called upon Mike Johnson in 2024 or Johnson/Trump in 2025.
The primary, legally binding spending caps established by the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) last for two fiscal years, specifically FY2024 and FY2025. These binding caps are set to expire on September 30, 2025, which is the end of FY2025.
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