Trump's $100K H1B fees is not going to make much difference

Many people participating in the other thread on this board are celebrating Trump's $100 H1B fee as a major victory. It is not.

I thought I will share some counterpoints.

Full disclosure - I personally was on a H1B visa for a long time, I am originally from India, and am very aware of some of the loopholes and abuses.

Here is the actual proclamation - LINK

The way this is currently written, it's not going to change much.

1) This only applies to H1B holders entering the country. So if you are already in USA on an H1B it is business as usual.

2) If you are already in USA on a H1B visa and extending and renewing your visa, this $100K fees does not apply. After the visa extension or renewal, if the visa holder goes back to their country, then they have to get a new visa stamp before they come back to USA. During that entry, this fees will indeed apply. But what this essentially means is that existing H1B visa holders within the United States simply wouldn't exit the country. They will wait out the Trump years with the hope that the rules will change post Trump presidency. This was already happening with most Indians on H1B. The reason is there's an extreme wait for scheduling visa appointments in US consulates in India.

3) This does not apply to L1 or L2 visas. So the big Indian IT firms will continue to use that too bring people onsite.

4) This does not apply to change of status cases. So, an international student studying in United States on a F1 Visa can still change their status to an H1B visa after completion of their course work. So Indian students staying MS courses in US universities will now essentially become the candidate pool for Indian IT companies. So essentially, the F1 to H1B pipeline still exists and there is no change there.

5) Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick had it wrong during the press conference when he said this fees will have to be paid every year. The proclamation says it is a one time fee.

6) This does not change anything regarding H4 EADs.

7) This does not change anything about OPT EAD and OPT STEM extension.

What will really change things is if the prevailing wage is significantly increased. Trump administration has said they plan to do that, and do the H1B lottery based on wage levels, instead of it being a random one. But implementation details of that are not yet available.

Even if the prevailing wage is upped, there is potential of abuse. Many Indian IT consultancies will pay the higher wage on paper, and then the employee will give back a part of the salary under the table. That already happens in some of the more shady Indian IT consultancies right now.

I'm sure there are many other H1B related loopholes that I'm not even aware of.

Editing to add WH Press Secretary's tweet about this. I still stand by everything I have said above.