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Started By
Message
Will the Feds lower rates? Give opinions... the cut is .25
Posted on 9/16/25 at 12:20 pm
Posted on 9/16/25 at 12:20 pm
I do not think they will based on past experience and the fact that the fired Fed, Lisa Cook, will still be in her position.
Appeals court ruled that Trump can not fire her before the FOMC meeting.
LINK
Appeals court ruled that Trump can not fire her before the FOMC meeting.
LINK
quote:
A federal appeals court ruled that President Donald Trump cannot fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook before the central bank’s policy committee votes on whether to lower interest rates.
The ruling means that Cook, a member of the Fed’s board of governors, can participate in the pivotal two-day meeting starting Tuesday morning.
This post was edited on 9/17/25 at 1:02 pm
16
Posted on 9/16/25 at 12:22 pm to BCreed1
I think they cave to political pressure and drop by 0.25
Posted on 9/16/25 at 12:36 pm to BCreed1
Its for sure a .25
Powells mouthpiece Timaros has spoken
Its hilarious to see posters like Paradox call it political pressure vs reality of a cut needed
Powells mouthpiece Timaros has spoken
Its hilarious to see posters like Paradox call it political pressure vs reality of a cut needed
quote:
Nick Timiraos
@NickTimiraos
The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 bps on Wednesday, with all eyes on how many officials pencil in three cuts for the year, implying consecutive cuts in October and December
Posted on 9/16/25 at 12:38 pm to SDVTiger
I with you on that, but I don't think they will. I purchased 500 contracts on them not.
Posted on 9/16/25 at 12:41 pm to BCreed1
I thought that a cut was a foregone conclusion and the debate was if it will be .25 or .50,
If they shock the world and don't cut at all then look out below.
If they shock the world and don't cut at all then look out below.
Posted on 9/16/25 at 12:49 pm to BCreed1
Aren’t the odds 100% for a rate cut right now?
Posted on 9/16/25 at 12:56 pm to BCreed1
quote:
I with you on that, but I don't think they will. I purchased 500 contracts on them not.
Timaros says exactly what they will be doing
Miran is voting so he offsets Cook its gonna be a .25 when it should be a .5
Posted on 9/16/25 at 1:06 pm to SDVTiger
If it turns out to be zero..... it won't offset my losses, but these 500 contracts will make me $500. If they do lower it, then I will have spent $15 on those contracts
Posted on 9/16/25 at 1:10 pm to BCreed1
I would not be surprised if they do not drop it. The Fed egos are a thing.
Posted on 9/16/25 at 1:40 pm to DarthRebel
I think we see a .25% cut this week, another one in Oct. and very likely a 3rd cut in Dec.
I think Powell's statement after he meeting will be the big market mover.
I think Powell's statement after he meeting will be the big market mover.
Posted on 9/16/25 at 1:45 pm to BCreed1
They were late to hike rates in 2021-2022, then tried to cram 2 years worth of increases in a short period of time, triggering issues with banks like SVB.
So they need to lower rates, but they'll probably be late and at a pace that will likely cause panic and frustration.
So they need to lower rates, but they'll probably be late and at a pace that will likely cause panic and frustration.
This post was edited on 9/16/25 at 1:47 pm
Posted on 9/16/25 at 1:46 pm to BCreed1
As I said on the other thread, I think we see 25bps to try to stabilize things post tariff frickery. Hopefully it doesn't spike inflation much, and hopefully we see little to no tariff frickery going forward. If we see one but not the other, we'll hurt a bit but be ok. If we see neither, we likely have serious problems.
Posted on 9/16/25 at 1:49 pm to DarthRebel
quote:
I would not be surprised if they do not drop it.
This.
I have very low confidence in this system. They are either using data with too much latency or they are cherry picking data to support a decision that they are making for reasons that are not transparent to everyone until the pressure gets too intense.
I'd love to be wrong and see a 50 basis point drop now and consideration of another 25 basis point drop in Dec.
This post was edited on 9/16/25 at 1:57 pm
Posted on 9/16/25 at 1:57 pm to BCreed1
I feel like the rate cut has been a foregone conclusion. Inflation increasing 20 bps means it will likely be .25, not .5%.
People are pricing in 2 more cuts, but if inflation goes above 3%, I’m not sure that happens.
People are pricing in 2 more cuts, but if inflation goes above 3%, I’m not sure that happens.
Posted on 9/16/25 at 2:03 pm to Suntiger
quote:
I feel like the rate cut has been a foregone conclusion. Inflation increasing 20 bps means it will likely be .25, not .5%.
People are pricing in 2 more cuts, but if inflation goes above 3%, I’m not sure that happens.
Agreed. I think the BLS revisions and the continued slow creep of unemployment is making Jerry more nervous than that return of the growth of inflation. If inflation pushes above 3% though (which is likely), I think it becomes more of a focus when weighing the possibility of further cuts (or, at least, it should).
Posted on 9/16/25 at 2:25 pm to Bard
Hold the rates!!
Posted on 9/16/25 at 3:27 pm to BCreed1
I think they will pass and use the inflation argument.
Posted on 9/16/25 at 4:25 pm to BCreed1
Nothing screams "time to cut rates" like runaway inflation and the stock market at an all time high.
But hey, how else are the 1% going to become the 0.1% ?
But hey, how else are the 1% going to become the 0.1% ?
Posted on 9/16/25 at 4:50 pm to BCreed1
Powell will cut 25 bps, that's not even a question at this point. The real question is if the Fed's comments are Dovish or Hawkish on a go-forward basis. Everything hangs in the balance of the FOMC's tone.
Posted on 9/16/25 at 6:25 pm to BCreed1
quote:Yep. 25BPS.
Will the Feds lower rates? Give opinions
Should go 50BPS, but they won't.
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