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March ‘24 to March ‘25 job revision coming tomorrow
Posted on 9/8/25 at 8:09 pm
Posted on 9/8/25 at 8:09 pm
The whisper number is that total jobs created is going to be revised lower by 1 million.
The “expected” revision is 600-700k lower.
One year ago today, the March 23 to March 24 downward revision was enough for feds to take action
The “expected” revision is 600-700k lower.
One year ago today, the March 23 to March 24 downward revision was enough for feds to take action
5
Top RepliesPosted on 9/9/25 at 9:03 am to slackster
Breaking:
March 24 to March 25 jobs revised down by 911k
March 24 to March 25 jobs revised down by 911k
This post was edited on 9/9/25 at 9:04 am
All Replies (23)
Posted on 9/8/25 at 8:30 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
If this happens it will say a lot. First, that all the job growth under Biden was a massive fraud. Second, that Trump’s firing of the guy heading this up was fully justified. Oh, and I saw Senator Warner on one of the Sunday shows describing these numbers as the “gold standard.”
Posted on 9/8/25 at 8:44 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
What was inflation doing while these jobs didn’t exist?
Timing is the key here.
If they raised rates to combat inflation and the economy hit the brakes, that would be somewhat expected…at least in terms of temporal precedence.
If inflation was high/rising WHILE those jobs didn’t exist…well, that’s 2/3 of the 3 horsemen of stagflation.
Timing is the key here.
If they raised rates to combat inflation and the economy hit the brakes, that would be somewhat expected…at least in terms of temporal precedence.
If inflation was high/rising WHILE those jobs didn’t exist…well, that’s 2/3 of the 3 horsemen of stagflation.
Posted on 9/8/25 at 9:00 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
It will just prove the Fed has been making decisions of shitebag data like i have said
They might be forced to a .5% cut and more after if its really a big number
Longhorn can cry about it all he wa ts
They might be forced to a .5% cut and more after if its really a big number
Longhorn can cry about it all he wa ts
Posted on 9/8/25 at 9:13 pm to SloaneRanger
quote:
Senator Warner
Quickly moving up to Schiff level of hatrid.
Posted on 9/8/25 at 9:14 pm to SDVTiger
quote:Jumbo, here we come!!!
They might be forced to a .5% cut and more after if its really a big number
Posted on 9/8/25 at 11:45 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
One year ago today, the March 23 to March 24 downward revision was enough for feds to take action
I’m not really sure the revision tomorrow or a year ago really mattered a whole lot. It was pretty well telegraphed for a couple weeks before all of that. They were cutting in September regardless, both in 2024 and 2025. Chances were basically 100% for a month or so before the meeting.
Posted on 9/9/25 at 9:03 am to slackster
Breaking:
March 24 to March 25 jobs revised down by 911k
March 24 to March 25 jobs revised down by 911k
This post was edited on 9/9/25 at 9:04 am
Posted on 9/9/25 at 9:11 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
March 24 to March 25 jobs revised down by 911k
Isnt that larger than Barrys of like 2013
It has to be a .5 cut now
Posted on 9/9/25 at 9:20 am to SDVTiger
Now we know why Trump fired the job counter, seems like they were Politically active in trying to get a Dem elected., feel kind of sorry for Trump and America, they didn’t deserve this…
Posted on 9/9/25 at 9:23 am to CamdenTiger
Whatever the methodology that BLS is using....it must be changed. These revisions mean the data they are publishing is effectively useless (regarding job creation or lack thereof).
Posted on 9/9/25 at 9:24 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
March 24 to March 25 jobs revised down by 911k
The data is total garbage and can’t be relied upon. It’s been that way for a while. Trump’s firing of the BLS guy has been vindicated.
Posted on 9/9/25 at 9:31 am to CamdenTiger
Thats close to 2mil jobs
The BLS also uses a household survey for rents thats almost 50% of the CPI report
Those numbers are wayyy off
The entire system needs an overhaul
The BLS also uses a household survey for rents thats almost 50% of the CPI report
Those numbers are wayyy off
The entire system needs an overhaul
Posted on 9/9/25 at 9:37 am to SDVTiger
quote:
It has to be a .5 cut now
Rates slightly higher across the entire curve today. Probability of a 50 basis point cut down over 24 hours. Ho-hum.
Posted on 9/9/25 at 9:38 am to SDVTiger
quote:
The entire system needs an overhaul
See you’re right every so often.
Posted on 9/9/25 at 9:41 am to slackster
quote:
Rates slightly higher across the entire curve today. Probability of a 50 basis point cut down over 24 hours. Ho-hum.
You said the same shite 12mnths ago and we all know how that turned out
Posted on 9/9/25 at 10:09 am to Longhorn Actual
quote:
What was inflation doing while these jobs didn’t exist?
Timing is the key here.
Indeed. When the Fed made their .5 cut around this time last year, inflation was on its way down. It reversed after the cuts then proceeded back up for the rest of the year (which covered two more cuts, at .25 each).
Currently we have sticky inflation, with PCE and CPI having stayed at the same well-above-the-2%-target rate for June and July. This week's PPI and CPI are likely to play a big role in decision-making next week.
Posted on 9/9/25 at 10:11 am to SDVTiger
What's more insane is they also revised that March 2023 to March 2024 number. Initial revision last year was 818k fewer jobs, it was revised back in Feb to 598k fewer jobs. Almost 2 years (from March 2023 to Feb 2025) of yo yoing these numbers up and down and back up again.
The household survey is closer to 1/3rd of CPI, but it is borderline criminally bad in the way it collects data for OER (Owner Equivalent Rent). BLS has it on their website, for renters it is a very direct question of "how much did you pay in rent this month, including parking fees etc but inviting any subsidies". For OER the question is "if someone were to rent you home today, how much do you think it would rent for monthly, unfurnished and without utilities?". One of those questions has a concrete, objective answer that the person (the renter) is going to know. The other is very subjective, like do I say just my mortgage? Would it rent for mortgage plus taxes and insurance? Gosh do I need to make a profit by renting this? Etc etc etc
It's basically an open ended question that hands the BLS a block of subjective data that they then have to make a bunch of assumptions about to create anything from. So yeah, bad data that is entirely subject to interpretation and weighting by the BLS and then somehow we expect policy makers to make good decisions from that.
The household survey is closer to 1/3rd of CPI, but it is borderline criminally bad in the way it collects data for OER (Owner Equivalent Rent). BLS has it on their website, for renters it is a very direct question of "how much did you pay in rent this month, including parking fees etc but inviting any subsidies". For OER the question is "if someone were to rent you home today, how much do you think it would rent for monthly, unfurnished and without utilities?". One of those questions has a concrete, objective answer that the person (the renter) is going to know. The other is very subjective, like do I say just my mortgage? Would it rent for mortgage plus taxes and insurance? Gosh do I need to make a profit by renting this? Etc etc etc
It's basically an open ended question that hands the BLS a block of subjective data that they then have to make a bunch of assumptions about to create anything from. So yeah, bad data that is entirely subject to interpretation and weighting by the BLS and then somehow we expect policy makers to make good decisions from that.
Posted on 9/9/25 at 10:12 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
Feds can make big cuts and it'll do very minimal for job creation. Companies will just squeeze out more profits without intention of more hiring.
Posted on 9/9/25 at 10:16 am to AUin02
quote:
The household survey is closer to 1/3rd of CPI, but it is borderline criminally bad in the way it collects data for OER (Owner Equivalent Rent)
Its my favorite one. Hey what do you think you can rent yout home for fully furnshied. 10k a mnth. Sounds great!!
Versus real time rents
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