- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Coaching Changes
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
Fed Rate cut prediction Sept edition
Posted on 9/8/25 at 2:51 pm
Posted on 9/8/25 at 2:51 pm
What do you think the cut will be
Right now is 89% at a .25 and about 11% n rising for a .5% cut
If the QCEW revisions are near the million I think Too Late has and will cut a .5%
We have the PPI and CPI reports which will show inflation "rising" most likely which could be an excuse for only a .25. But a .25 cut is not plan from the FED
Whats the thoughts from this sites top posters of the MB?
Right now is 89% at a .25 and about 11% n rising for a .5% cut
If the QCEW revisions are near the million I think Too Late has and will cut a .5%
We have the PPI and CPI reports which will show inflation "rising" most likely which could be an excuse for only a .25. But a .25 cut is not plan from the FED
Whats the thoughts from this sites top posters of the MB?
8
Posted on 9/8/25 at 2:52 pm to SDVTiger
SDVCuck still on here wishcasting for rate cuts 
Posted on 9/8/25 at 2:56 pm to SDVTiger
I think it's .25%. The question is will we have2 cuts or 3 this year.
Posted on 9/8/25 at 3:11 pm to bigjoe1
quote:
I think it's .25%. The question is will we have2 cuts or 3 this year.
If he goes .25 there will be massive pressure for two more .25%s
Tomorrows revsision could be massive
quote:
SDVCuck still on here wishcasting for rate cuts
Only a complete moron could post this
Posted on 9/8/25 at 3:12 pm to SDVTiger
I think it's .25 right now, but let's revisit after PPI and CPI come out later this week.
Posted on 9/8/25 at 3:18 pm to Bard
quote:
I think it's .25 right now, but let's revisit after PPI and CPI come out later this week.
If it rises as expected do you think too late would be bold enough to go no cut?
Miran will be voting. Waller and Bowman will vote cuts
Too Late just said the job market was booming so I could see him saying no cut just to make ppl go nutz in the Admin
They might all get arrested if he does
Posted on 9/8/25 at 4:26 pm to SDVTiger
Unfortunately, because of tariff frickery, I think Powell likely feels compelled to eat an increase in inflation, so I would predict 25bp. With that said, I would say that 0bp is more likely than 50bp.
This post was edited on 9/8/25 at 4:26 pm
Posted on 9/8/25 at 4:41 pm to Joshjrn
quote:
Unfortunately, because of tariff frickery, I think Powell likely feels
Powell just changed his tune again and admitted Tariffs are not inflationary
They are one time hikes
Posted on 9/8/25 at 6:07 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
Powell just changed his tune again and admitted Tariffs are not inflationary They are one time hikes
A single, stable tariff increase will create short term inflation (a single “hike” priced in over a span six to twelve months as inventories turn over). Multiple, unstable tariffs do the same thing, except indefinitely.
Posted on 9/8/25 at 6:50 pm to SDVTiger
Anyone want to get on the "cut more than 25 bps" with me. Last week Robinhood had it at 8 cents probability, last time I checked it went up to $0.17.
I bought 1000 contracts at 10 cents and kind of hoping it gets to about 40 cents where I can just sell before the announcement for a cool $300 minus RH's fees which are a little steep for these prediction market contracts.
Eta: Why does OP have 0 upvotes, this is very much a real-time thread on the sudden shift to where Powell might very well give us 50. Here OP, have an upvote to balance out these Money Board a holes.
I bought 1000 contracts at 10 cents and kind of hoping it gets to about 40 cents where I can just sell before the announcement for a cool $300 minus RH's fees which are a little steep for these prediction market contracts.
Eta: Why does OP have 0 upvotes, this is very much a real-time thread on the sudden shift to where Powell might very well give us 50. Here OP, have an upvote to balance out these Money Board a holes.
This post was edited on 9/8/25 at 6:54 pm
Posted on 9/8/25 at 7:26 pm to FizzyPop
quote:
Eta: Why does OP have 0 upvotes, this is very much a real-time thread on the sudden shift to where Powell might very well give us 50. Here OP, have an upvote to balance out these Money Board a holes.
They just dont like me cause I keep proving them wrong
They all have TDS as well. I would place that bet on .5 cut for sure
This post was edited on 9/8/25 at 7:27 pm
Posted on 9/8/25 at 7:31 pm to SDVTiger
All I want to know how much mortgage rates will change!?!?
Posted on 9/8/25 at 7:37 pm to Sterling Archer
Well they look great today
10yr is almost under 4%
We probably get a other .25 off if they cut
10yr is almost under 4%
We probably get a other .25 off if they cut
Posted on 9/8/25 at 8:40 pm to SDVTiger
Nobody will take you seriously on the topic of economics/finance until you can manage to string together a couple of coherent thoughts, formulate a few sentences articulating those thoughts, and manage to do it without using silly arse nicknames.
As it is, you sound like a dumbass trying his best to regurgitate someone else’s thoughts while not understanding the subject matter at all.
As it is, you sound like a dumbass trying his best to regurgitate someone else’s thoughts while not understanding the subject matter at all.
Posted on 9/8/25 at 8:41 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
If it rises as expected do you think too late would be bold enough to go no cut?
I don't think he does but it will be depending on how much increase there is. CPI rose from April's 2.3% to June's 2.7% and then held steady for July. During this time PPI swung back and forth as businesses scrambled to buy as much resources as possible to carry them through a few months (at least that's the theory). PPI jumped .9 in July. If PPI is up .4 or more for August and CPI comes in at .1, I think a lot of butts pucker in that meeting. If PPI comes in at .1 or .2 and CPI holds again, I think the cut still goes through. If CPI is up .2 or more, I think they hold.
This post was edited on 9/8/25 at 8:46 pm
Posted on 9/8/25 at 9:28 pm to Bard
quote:
April's 2.3% to June's 2.7
Just like the jobs report this is not accurate cause they are not using real time rents
Walller said so
Posted on 9/8/25 at 9:29 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
They just dont like me cause I keep proving them wrong
You literally haven’t been right yet, and somehow keep being an arrogant count about it while
quote:
They all have TDS as well.
Saying that over and over again. I didn’t downvote your OP, but this post is a pretty good explanation as for why others did. Though I have to give you credit: I can’t think of anyone else who gets so thoroughly and consistently dunked on on both the MT and the PT
Posted on 9/8/25 at 9:32 pm to Bard
quote:
If PPI is up .4 or more for August and CPI comes in at .1, I think a lot of butts pucker in that meeting. If PPI comes in at .1 or .2 and CPI holds again, I think the cut still goes through. If CPI is up .2 or more, I think they hold.
Posted on 9/8/25 at 9:32 pm to Joshjrn
quote:
You literally haven’t been right yet,
How specifically havent i been right?
Posted on 9/8/25 at 9:35 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
How specifically havent i been right?
Being right is an affirmative, not a negative. Please point out when you have been.
Page 1 of 3
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News