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Batting average with RISP and pinch-hitting BA. (season to date)

Posted on 6/5/25 at 1:11 pm
Posted by notbilly
alter
Member since Sep 2015
6234 posts
Posted on 6/5/25 at 1:11 pm
I always like monitoring BA w/ RISP b/c it shows who is better under pressure. For example, Frey's BA jumps up 77 points when someone is in scoring position. Brown jumps up 58 points. Bras and Hernandez jump 44 & 42 points. Larson has a lot fewer at-bats, but his BA jumps 97 points w RISP.

Frey is our most clutch hitter, and I hope he stays in the 2 hole.

BA w/ RISP
.436 Frey
.370 Brown
.353 Larson
.352 Curiel
.349 Jones
.333 Beck
.329 Dickinson
.318 Hernandez
.286 Arrambide
.286 John Pearson
.278 Reaves
.268 Stanfield
.260 Milam
.250 Braswell
.212 Josh Pearson

Pinch Hit Batting Average
.545 Brown
.500 Braswell
.400 Frey
.400 Arrambide
.364 Josh Pearson
.333 Beck
.312 John Pearson
.258 Larson
.200 Reaves
.000 Hernandez


***This is based on season stats to date. I only used people who played in the last 3 games b/c I get this from the "live stats". Also, it doesn't show how many hits and ABs, so Bras could be 1 for 2 and Luis could be 0 for 1.
Posted by lsu711
Member since Sep 2003
14379 posts
Posted on 6/5/25 at 1:16 pm to
quote:

.212 Josh Pearson

I’m not sure I would have guessed within 100 points of that.

Posted by jamarr
Member since Jul 2019
983 posts
Posted on 6/5/25 at 1:18 pm to
its random. players don't actually try harder and not try at other times.

pearson is not a bad clutch hitter. its just random.

with enough data the clutch numbers and normal numbers are the same
This post was edited on 6/5/25 at 1:20 pm
Posted by josh336
baton rouge
Member since Jan 2007
80585 posts
Posted on 6/5/25 at 1:33 pm to
Yep, pretty useless data set
Posted by Yeti_Chaser
Member since Nov 2017
10175 posts
Posted on 6/5/25 at 2:14 pm to
quote:

its random

Not really. Hitters get pitched to differently with RISP. It shows who can hit tougher pitching and often times who hits breaking balls the best. The PH is more a function of L/R splits
Posted by josh336
baton rouge
Member since Jan 2007
80585 posts
Posted on 6/5/25 at 2:17 pm to
Im willing to change my opinion. Can you provide proof over multiple seasons using mlb players?
Posted by Nutriaitch
Montegut
Member since Apr 2008
9857 posts
Posted on 6/5/25 at 2:18 pm to
quote:

its random. players don't actually try harder and not try at other times.


it's definitely not just random.

nobody is saying the effort level changes (trying harder or not as hard, etc.)

but for one, players will be pitched to differently than they would with nobody out and the bases empty. Defense will also line up differently.

both of those changes will have an effect on the hitters chances for success.

plus a hitter's own approach will change based on specific situation.
what a batter is looking to do with runner on 3rd less than 2 outs vs runner on 2nd with 2 outs will be completely different.







Posted by Chicken
Jackassistan
Member since Aug 2003
24604 posts
Posted on 6/5/25 at 2:19 pm to
does this exclude non-conference games?
Posted by MOT
Member since Jul 2006
29611 posts
Posted on 6/5/25 at 2:28 pm to
quote:

it's definitely not just random.
It definitely is, and most of you are missing the point as to why it is.
Posted by Yeti_Chaser
Member since Nov 2017
10175 posts
Posted on 6/5/25 at 2:33 pm to
No I'm not going to put in the effort. But I assume you've watched baseball a few times? Do you disagree that pitchers pitch differently based on the situation? Are you more likely to get a fastball in a 3-0 count? Is an 8 hole hitter more likely to see better pitches than a leadoff hitter? Now what if there's a runner on 2nd?

Idk if the aggregate data supports it or not, but if not I can think of a few reasons. As the poster above mentioned a hitter is trying to do something different with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs. Also some pitchers won't throw a ball in the dirt with a runner on 3rd (maybe not in the MLB but at certain levels of college it is true)
This post was edited on 6/5/25 at 2:35 pm
Posted by Lakeboy7
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2011
25875 posts
Posted on 6/5/25 at 2:36 pm to
quote:

does this exclude non-conference games?


I think thats the whole season (could be wrong).
Posted by Kajuncook
St.Francisville
Member since Mar 2011
604 posts
Posted on 6/5/25 at 2:38 pm to
Good stuff— thank you!!!
Posted by josh336
baton rouge
Member since Jan 2007
80585 posts
Posted on 6/5/25 at 2:39 pm to
quote:

Do you disagree that pitchers pitch differently based on the situation?

Nope, i dont disagree. Theyll do that to hitters all the time.


quote:

Are you more likely to get a fastball in a 3-0 count?

What does this have to do with runners in scoring position?

quote:

Is an 8 hole hitter more likely to see better pitches than a leadoff hitter?

Depends on several factors.

quote:

Now what if there's a runner on 2nd?

Only on 2nd?
What score?
Because if all else is even, with a runner at 2nd, and a favorable count, the pitcher is going to throw his best pitch regardless of you being the 4 hole or the 7 hole


Posted by notbilly
alter
Member since Sep 2015
6234 posts
Posted on 6/5/25 at 2:41 pm to
quote:

does this exclude non-conference games?



No. This is from all games.
Posted by Nutriaitch
Montegut
Member since Apr 2008
9857 posts
Posted on 6/5/25 at 2:46 pm to
quote:

It definitely is, and most of you are missing the point as to why it is.



if by random, you mean that you can't predict what particular situation a guy will face from at bat to at bat, then sure.

but if you're insinuating that a hitter had roughly equal number of at bats in situation A and situation B that his results would also be roughly equal, then you're wrong.
Posted by LC4Tigers
Lake Charles
Member since Oct 2007
788 posts
Posted on 6/5/25 at 2:46 pm to
Over a large data set, the average with RISP is higher than without for all players. This more a result of pitching from the stretch, defense moving to hold runners on, infield in, worse pitchers being in more RISP scenarios, etc. The difference is not huge though. It’s not a worthwhile statistic in which you should use to make decisions.
Posted by LSUButt
Lowcountry
Member since Jan 2006
15402 posts
Posted on 6/5/25 at 3:00 pm to
Imo, I don’t think it is just “random”, and it isn’t that players try harder or don’t in situations.

Being clutch is a thing. It’s a mental thing that can’t be measured very well in any sport, but baseball is the closest because of how in depth the stats are. Some guys just have that “it” factor, others really shorten their swings, or slightly change their approach and become more contact hitters etc. Tommy White was a great example. He obviously could crush, but his 2-strike approach with runners on base was amazing. No stride, just trying to go oppo and get a base hit.

Not exactly the same, but I view hitting with RISP similar to game winning football drives or basketball players performing late in games

Back to OP, nothing crazy but seeing Frey’s so high is eye popping. Not going to happen or really suggesting it should, but Curiel being an OBP machine and mostly a singles/gap to gap hitter…then Dickinson last 6+ weeks becoming more of a contact guy (outside of game 1 regional)…I wouldn’t mind seeing Curiel/Dickinson/Frey with his ability to drive in runs

Thanks for sharing OP
Posted by Mandtgr47
Member since Aug 2024
6327 posts
Posted on 6/5/25 at 3:09 pm to
Wtf made you the baseball voice on here? If I'm OPi just ignore you like most people normally do. You try and act like you are some expert when most know that you are just an emotional poster on here that is always trying to sound like you know more than the average poster. Some of you people on here it is comical. I can't imagine what you would be like if you had witnessed all 7 national championships real time....like some of us.

Posted by notbilly
alter
Member since Sep 2015
6234 posts
Posted on 6/5/25 at 3:16 pm to
quote:

its random. players don't actually try harder and not try at other times.



I don't think anyone would argue that it's about trying harder. Some guys handle pressure better, and that's in any sport. Well, it's not limited to sports either.
Posted by josh336
baton rouge
Member since Jan 2007
80585 posts
Posted on 6/5/25 at 3:19 pm to
why are you so mad?
Ive witnessed 6 of the 7.

Not sure your problem with me. I disagree with the OP, im going to comment on it. Deal with it
This post was edited on 6/5/25 at 3:24 pm
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