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Peace in Ukraine ... an exercise in how it might look
Posted on 3/3/25 at 12:25 pm
Posted on 3/3/25 at 12:25 pm
Two "Givens"
1. Russia has taken a lot of Ukrainian territory, and it is unlikely to give any of it back.
2. Ukraine is convinced (with good cause) that Russia remains a threat for future aggression, even if Ukraine agrees that Russian can keep everything it has stolen thus far.
=====
What if all parties agree that Russia keeps what it has stolen, but Ukraine gets to join NATO as an Article V guarantee that Russia will not attempt to take another bite at the Ukrainian apple in the future?
1. Russia has taken a lot of Ukrainian territory, and it is unlikely to give any of it back.
2. Ukraine is convinced (with good cause) that Russia remains a threat for future aggression, even if Ukraine agrees that Russian can keep everything it has stolen thus far.
=====
What if all parties agree that Russia keeps what it has stolen, but Ukraine gets to join NATO as an Article V guarantee that Russia will not attempt to take another bite at the Ukrainian apple in the future?
30
Posted on 3/3/25 at 12:27 pm to AggieHank86
I mean yea that would do it but it's already been well established form both sides that NATO membership for Ukraine isn't even in the realm of possibility. Russia would never agree to it
Posted on 3/3/25 at 12:27 pm to AggieHank86
How about no, that’s the reason for the war in the first place
Alternative: depose Zelenskyy, hold new elections to end the war and Russia gives us a brand new minerals deal
Alternative: depose Zelenskyy, hold new elections to end the war and Russia gives us a brand new minerals deal
Posted on 3/3/25 at 12:28 pm to AggieHank86
quote:
but Ukraine gets to join NATO as an Article V guarantee that Russia will not attempt to take another bite at the Ukrainian apple in the future?
If we get the frick out of NATO, I got no beefs with that.
Posted on 3/3/25 at 12:29 pm to AggieHank86
quote:NEVER going to happen. Putin’s red line. Said over and over
but Ukraine gets to join NATO
Glad to cover this for the millionth time
Posted on 3/3/25 at 12:29 pm to AggieHank86
Europe can always pay their fair share for defense.
But it means they might have to move money from all the other programs they spend way more of their gdp on.
But it means they might have to move money from all the other programs they spend way more of their gdp on.
This post was edited on 3/3/25 at 12:32 pm
Posted on 3/3/25 at 12:30 pm to Proximo
Yes to all except the mineral deal with Russia. For one big reason majority of the minerals we want is still in Ukraine controlled territory.
Posted on 3/3/25 at 12:36 pm to AggieHank86
quote:
but Ukraine gets to join NATO
That's the best way to make sure peace never happens.
Posted on 3/3/25 at 12:36 pm to LARancher1991
No on NATO. Not because of Putin but because of Article 5. We also have to be very careful of globalists doing the same in NATO member Romania that it has done in Ukraine, essentially using them as a tool for proxy war or WW3.
Any peace deal IMO also has to include an exiled Zelensky.
Any peace deal IMO also has to include an exiled Zelensky.
This post was edited on 3/3/25 at 12:40 pm
Posted on 3/3/25 at 12:37 pm to AggieHank86
quote:
What if all parties agree that Russia keeps what it has stolen, but Ukraine gets to join NATO as an Article V guarantee that Russia will not attempt to take another bite at the Ukrainian apple in the future?
Putin rejected that idea from day 1.
Posted on 3/3/25 at 12:37 pm to AggieHank86
There is a simple offer that will end the war. US leaves NATO and normalizes relations with Russia in exchange for Russia ending any further land conquest
Posted on 3/3/25 at 12:38 pm to AggieHank86
A minerals deal should be more than enough re: future aggression deterrent. NATO and Article V shouldn't even be on the table
Posted on 3/3/25 at 12:39 pm to Von
quote:A "peace deal" is only as good as it is enforceable.quote:That's the best way to make sure peace never happens.
but Ukraine gets to join NATO
Without NATO membership (or something very much like it), what is the guarantee against future Russian aggression?
Posted on 3/3/25 at 12:41 pm to AggieHank86
NATO membership is a deal-breaker for Russia. We didn't want Russia in Cuba. Russia will not agree to NATO bases, specifically US troops with weapons in Urkraine.
I just posted this, that I think Russia (& Ukraine) would agree to a passive/distant US threat & would stop the war. Meaning, if rare earth deals are signed by Ukraine and/or Russia, American workers get to go there & mine their minerals. If one of them breaks their agreement & resumes fighting, and one American hair is touched, the might of the US military will cross oceans & continents to protect/defend our citizens.
I just posted this, that I think Russia (& Ukraine) would agree to a passive/distant US threat & would stop the war. Meaning, if rare earth deals are signed by Ukraine and/or Russia, American workers get to go there & mine their minerals. If one of them breaks their agreement & resumes fighting, and one American hair is touched, the might of the US military will cross oceans & continents to protect/defend our citizens.
Posted on 3/3/25 at 12:43 pm to LSUFreek
quote:So, you are suggesting American Blue Helmets, without the helmets. Basically, American miners as a tripwire?
I think Russia (& Ukraine) would agree to a passive/distant US threat & would stop the war. Meaning, if rare earth deals are signed by Ukraine and/or Russia, American workers get to go there & mine their minerals. If one of them breaks their agreement & resumes fighting, and one American hair is touched, the might of the US military will cross oceans & continents to protect/defend our citizens.
Posted on 3/3/25 at 12:43 pm to BeepBopBoop
NATO is the big concern but I would be concerned about them joining the EU as well. This would essentially make Ukraine a NATO country by proxy because of the EU's version of article 5. Ukraine joins the EU and is attacked, the EU's version of article 5 goes into play. An EU country that is also in NATO (majority of them) is attacked, and boom NATO is drawn into the war.
Posted on 3/3/25 at 12:45 pm to AggieHank86
There are some basic table-stakes that need to be agree upon before a peace deal can be made.
1. Russia keeps the conquered land
2. Ukraine can not join NATO
3. Russia has to make a rock solid agreement to no longer move west
NATO is the biggest sticking point for Russia. Putin clearly described the why behind this in an exhaustive history lesson in interviews. He doesn't want western military installments at his doorstep. Maybe, if the U.S. leaves NATO, they may be tenable to letting Ukraine join NATO. That would be an interesting twist.
Without common agreement on those there's no need to bother getting into the intricate details.
1. Russia keeps the conquered land
2. Ukraine can not join NATO
3. Russia has to make a rock solid agreement to no longer move west
NATO is the biggest sticking point for Russia. Putin clearly described the why behind this in an exhaustive history lesson in interviews. He doesn't want western military installments at his doorstep. Maybe, if the U.S. leaves NATO, they may be tenable to letting Ukraine join NATO. That would be an interesting twist.
Without common agreement on those there's no need to bother getting into the intricate details.
Posted on 3/3/25 at 12:46 pm to RolltidePA
quote:
3. Russia has to make a rock solid agreement to no longer move west
And that's enforced how?
Posted on 3/3/25 at 12:46 pm to AggieHank86
quote:
A "peace deal" is only as good as it is enforceable. Without NATO membership (or something very much like it), what is the guarantee against future Russian aggression?
There are no guarantees on that besides not electing a democrat president.
Posted on 3/3/25 at 12:46 pm to AggieHank86
quote:
What if all parties agree that Russia keeps what it has stolen, but Ukraine gets to join NATO as an Article V guarantee that Russia will not attempt to take another bite at the Ukrainian apple in the future?
Or we could just let Ukraine wither on the vine. Nato expansion is what started this fiasco. Nato agreed not to add any countries that border Russia and they agreed. Then NATO (really the US) went back on its word, but WE LIE ALL THE TIME. So everyone should have expected it.
People want to say that Putin wont keep his word but when has the US?
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