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Started By
Message
Oil Stocks/ETFS in 2025
Posted on 12/23/24 at 12:40 pm
Posted on 12/23/24 at 12:40 pm
Anyone think Oil related Stocks/ETFs (ie...USO) will start moving upward in January as Trump gets in?
I hear that his drill baby drill approach could have some negative effects due to driving the price down below, but what might be some good trades that people remember from the first Trump admin. Or any other newer options that can benefit from "drill baby drill." Or is shorting the best option?
I have no clue what can or not happen, so a discussion to learn is always welcome too. TIA!
I hear that his drill baby drill approach could have some negative effects due to driving the price down below, but what might be some good trades that people remember from the first Trump admin. Or any other newer options that can benefit from "drill baby drill." Or is shorting the best option?
I have no clue what can or not happen, so a discussion to learn is always welcome too. TIA!
8
Posted on 12/23/24 at 1:10 pm to HagaDaga
Cvx screams buy to me oersonally
Posted on 12/23/24 at 1:18 pm to tigerbacon
Why did their stock price drop sharply over the last 3 months? Any news that caused it? Looks like XOM dropped somewhat comparably so maybe it's just standard industry stuff.
Posted on 12/23/24 at 1:28 pm to tigerbacon
The other one is a good question, but why is Chevron standing out to you for 25 over say Exxon (XOM), ConocoPhilips (COP) or BP?
Posted on 12/23/24 at 1:42 pm to HagaDaga
quote:The world cannot really accommodate additional US light barrels, and as of now anything the US taps into will gassier and wetter than previous. We're already awash in natty and liquids, so drill baby drill won't be a thing.
I hear that his drill baby drill approach could have some negative effects due to driving the price down below, but what might be some good trades that people remember from the first Trump admin. Or any other newer options that can benefit from "drill baby drill." Or is shorting the best option?
Market is going up
-US likely gains 0 barrels exit-to-exit in cal-25 & non-OPEC+ isn't going to grow like most assume
-EIA has changed how they report production #, which has masked already stagnating US shale production
-Global crude & total product stocks are at untenably low levels
-Energy has been getting sold relentlessly as funds have pivoted to mag7 in recent months
The only caveat is Chinese demand. If their demand falls off a cliff (which I'm dubious of short term given their stimulus mandates), the above becomes meaningless.
COP & XOM are my favorite of the big caps for 25.
This post was edited on 12/23/24 at 3:11 pm
Posted on 12/23/24 at 1:44 pm to HagaDaga
Since 2019...since before covid market crash
XOM is up 50%
SHEL is up 4%
BP is down 25%
CVX is up 18%
MPC is up 120%
COP is up 49%
XOM is up 50%
SHEL is up 4%
BP is down 25%
CVX is up 18%
MPC is up 120%
COP is up 49%
This post was edited on 12/23/24 at 1:45 pm
Posted on 12/23/24 at 2:16 pm to HagaDaga
Drill baby drill will create supply in excess of demand and prices will fall. Earnings will compress. Good for citizens. May not be so good for O&G stock prices. Dunno
Posted on 12/23/24 at 2:28 pm to HagaDaga
Check out MTDR. I got in them thanks to a tip from this board when it was still under $2. Very well managed company and currently undervalued.
Posted on 12/23/24 at 2:29 pm to HagaDaga
We are already drilling as much as we can. We are producing way more domestic oil than we ever did under the first trump admin.
Posted on 12/23/24 at 4:01 pm to HagaDaga
If you have some common sense deregulation, especially with the EPA, companies can make just as much or more profit at lower price levels. I 100% don't agree with letting oil producers destroy the environment, but the current EPA regs on a clean up are ridiculous. There's a middle ground that can be reached if people that actually know wtf they are doing and have no political motivations are making the decisions.
Posted on 12/23/24 at 4:04 pm to JohnnyKilroy
Watch, more is coming and it’s gonna hurt producers.
Posted on 12/23/24 at 7:21 pm to tigerbacon
quote:
Cvx screams buy to me personally
Bought a good bit in the 140's a while back waiting to get into 130's to add.
Posted on 12/24/24 at 9:39 am to SmackoverHawg
quote:
Check out MTDR. I got in them thanks to a tip from this board when it was still under $2. Very well managed company and currently undervalued.
Thanks. Damn good buy though
it's in the low 50s range right. What makes you think it's undervalued?Posted on 12/24/24 at 9:43 am to Ballstein32
quote:
XOM is up 50%
SHEL is up 4%
BP is down 25%
CVX is up 18%
MPC is up 120%
COP is up 49%
Are you saying that cvx has room to move up or it's not that good of a play if it hasn't moved like others?
I'm a legit amateur so trying to learn.
Posted on 12/24/24 at 9:50 am to Louie T
Thanks for your response though I don't understand most of it.
Will more WFH and a better (hopefully) economy under Trump help tick demand higher? Or not sufficient enough to think it's good.
I guess I'm wondering if there's any potential for a small company to really breakout and grow in the next Trump era. Like a MTDR did since 2020. Or is just going to be established companies maintaining steady growth as small ones are swallowed up, vanish or stay stagnant.
quote:
The only caveat is Chinese demand. If their demand falls off a cliff (which I'm dubious of short term given their stimulus mandates), the above becomes meaningless.
Will more WFH and a better (hopefully) economy under Trump help tick demand higher? Or not sufficient enough to think it's good.
I guess I'm wondering if there's any potential for a small company to really breakout and grow in the next Trump era. Like a MTDR did since 2020. Or is just going to be established companies maintaining steady growth as small ones are swallowed up, vanish or stay stagnant.
Posted on 12/24/24 at 9:51 am to SmackoverHawg
quote:
the current EPA regs on a clean up are ridiculous
Correct. Can’t wait until some of this gets corrected. Applies across the entire economy but rarely as restrictive as o&g
Posted on 12/24/24 at 10:15 am to HagaDaga
quote:History has shown near zero correlation between Rep / Dem being in office with production figures or energy earnings.
Will more WFH and a better (hopefully) economy under Trump help tick demand higher? Or not sufficient enough to think it's good.
quote:I'm not in equity research, so I won't speculate on small or mid cap E&P. I have wagered on WTI & Brent moving much higher from current prices based on some of the macro factors I've listed above.
I guess I'm wondering if there's any potential for a small company to really breakout and grow in the next Trump era. Like a MTDR did since 2020. Or is just going to be established companies maintaining steady growth as small ones are swallowed up, vanish or stay stagnant.
This post was edited on 12/24/24 at 10:19 am
Posted on 12/24/24 at 10:34 am to Louie T
RefinIng capacity might go up.
It’s hard to get excited about a huge investment in new refining capacity when one side wants all electric by 2035.
It’s hard to get excited about a huge investment in new refining capacity when one side wants all electric by 2035.
Posted on 12/24/24 at 10:35 am to Louie T
quote:
History has shown near zero correlation between Rep / Dem being in office with production figures or energy earnings.
Got it. Don't know how to use that either way, but good tidbit to keep in mind.
quote:
I'm not in equity research, so I won't speculate on small or mid cap E&P. I have wagered on WTI & Brent moving much higher from current prices based on some of the macro factors I've listed above.
Noted. Thanks for the info. We all carve out our own approaches so thanks for sharing yours. So the ETFs that mix it up with those would be another option I guess.
Posted on 12/24/24 at 10:55 am to HagaDaga
Good luck! The energy space has been a red headed stepchild for a while, but I think it'll be in a better place soon with disappointing US prod, OPEC+ unity, and current crude & product stocks.
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