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How does Vegas do it? David Montgomery’s season total rushing prop was set at 775.5 yards

Posted on 12/17/24 at 7:23 am
Posted by SPEEDY
2005 Tiger Smack Poster of the Year
Member since Dec 2003
86950 posts
Posted on 12/17/24 at 7:23 am
Posted by Le Tenia
Member since Feb 2015
4952 posts
Posted on 12/17/24 at 7:27 am to
Pay him a $1m to have seat.
Posted by SECSolomonGrundy
Slaughter Swamp
Member since Jun 2012
18016 posts
Posted on 12/17/24 at 7:43 am to
quote:

Pay him a $1m to have seat.


Dont be stupid.
Posted by Dawg7730
Member since Mar 2021
2841 posts
Posted on 12/17/24 at 7:44 am to
Sports almanac from “back to the future” is real, man.
Posted by TigerBR1111
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2014
8226 posts
Posted on 12/17/24 at 7:50 am to
Posted by alajones
Huntsvegas
Member since Oct 2005
35716 posts
Posted on 12/17/24 at 8:10 am to
This is a cool little factoid, but I don’t think they “do it” at all. Vegas throws numbers out there and sees how the betting market responds.

I’ve been picking Vegas favorites for the entirety of the CFB and NFL seasons and my record sucked.
This post was edited on 12/17/24 at 12:27 pm
Posted by Bjorn Cyborg
Member since Sep 2016
33900 posts
Posted on 12/17/24 at 8:15 am to
For every one of these there is a dozen that aren't even close. You just notice the close ones.
Posted by Indigold
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2013
1713 posts
Posted on 12/17/24 at 8:39 am to
"Worst beat ever?" is pretty dumb. Half the money was on the under, so a bunch of people are thinking it's the best beat ever.
Posted by WhiteMandingo
Member since Jan 2016
7438 posts
Posted on 12/17/24 at 9:04 am to
Money line and the ling game I'm up 58 wins on ML bets , the odds on some are terrible so it cuts into the profit but the % is high.
Ml bets and player props are the way to go the spread is to fn hard
Posted by D011ahbi11
Member since Jun 2007
13679 posts
Posted on 12/17/24 at 9:22 am to
quote:

Pay him a $1m to have seat.


I doubt there’s even enough money risked on season long rushing totals for Vegas to give a shite one way or another

It’s a nothingburger
Posted by JW
Los Angeles
Member since Jul 2004
5157 posts
Posted on 12/17/24 at 9:47 am to
How do they do it ?
He would have sailed over that number if not for the injury.

Now if it was week 18 and that is where he landed, then sure it's worth a "how do they do it", but that was a dumb take.

Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
93125 posts
Posted on 12/17/24 at 10:13 am to
They use Madden Season Sim and takes those stats
Posted by PeteRose
Hall of Fame
Member since Aug 2014
17823 posts
Posted on 12/17/24 at 10:26 am to
quote:

How does Vegas do it?



I tend to notice people bring up how Vegas is pin point accurate when the outcome warrants it. But for each outcome that Vegas gets right on these, they’re way off 10 other lines.
Posted by PeteRose
Hall of Fame
Member since Aug 2014
17823 posts
Posted on 12/17/24 at 10:29 am to
Duplicate
This post was edited on 12/17/24 at 10:29 am
Posted by DownSouthCrawfish
Lift every voice and sing
Member since Oct 2011
40522 posts
Posted on 12/17/24 at 10:46 am to
Wow that’s actually disgusting
Posted by bad93ex
Walnut Cove
Member since Sep 2018
34042 posts
Posted on 12/17/24 at 11:17 am to
quote:

How does Vegas do it? David Montgomery’s season total rushing prop was set at 775.5 yards


Occam's Razor

Posted by LSUGrad9295
Baton Rouge
Member since May 2007
36912 posts
Posted on 12/17/24 at 11:51 am to
The Montgomery thing just goes to show you that in sports betting you can run, but you can't hide from the hook. It lurks and will find you in the strangest of places.

I had South Carolina's women's basketball team -64.5 in a game last year. Bitch from the other team hits a bucket with like 25 seconds left to make it a 64 point game, then SC dribbled out the remaining time on the clock without shooting. After unloading a few f-bimbs, all you can do at that point is throw your hands up and laugh at it.
Posted by JohnnyKilroy
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
40212 posts
Posted on 12/17/24 at 12:05 pm to
quote:

I had South Carolina's women's basketball team -64.5 in a game last year


Degeneracy.
Posted by SammyTiger
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2009
78178 posts
Posted on 12/17/24 at 1:00 pm to
To be fair it’s a bad bear and it’s also an amazing win if you didn’t believe in Montgomery.

but he has had over 800 yards every year as a pro.

If the money is good these may be solid bets for RB to take the under and hope for an injury.
Posted by goldennugget
NIL Ruined College Sports
Member since Jul 2013
26025 posts
Posted on 12/17/24 at 1:59 pm to
PhDs with IQs of 185 are the ones setting the odds

It's why I laugh at the average joe who thinks he is smarter than them and can win money betting on sports
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