Good News for NE2 for Trump

The other huge factor at play here is not just the 10k lower Dem adv vs 2020 but there is also 16k LESS indy early votes as well, making a MUCH smaller cushion for Dems. Rs have 9k more net reg since 2020 for total lead of 14k. All they have to do is show up.

I had this as a toss up before but looking at early ED data coming in from FL (Rs showing up 2 to 1 vs dems and indy modeled data from
@DataRepublican
showing indys turning out nearly 2 to 1 R as well - based on county analysis) if NE2 sees even a FRACTION of that behavior it will not be a close race.

I'm calling it, 60/40 liklihood NE2 goes RED. I'm keeping my Dem range from yesterday but expanding the Rs for a net of +1kD-+7kR

Imagine Trump already being able to win the election with 269 and every other state pick up would just be gravy.

Here’s to another glorious night on this board.

And I saw my reflection in the snow covered hills
'Til the landslide brought me down

Ok Gotcha

If NE2 goes for Trump, he only needs AZ and NV for the tie.


Holy
fricking
shite


Please let this happen!!!!!!!!

Polls had it Harris +12 here, which I think is too high by 5-6 is probably right. I think Harris will probably improve Biden's margins in suburbs by a few points, but get slaughtered in the rurals and have lower urban margins. This is a heavily suburban district with unfavorable demographics for Trump.

With Nevada looking better than the blue wall this race is huge. Wish we had put more effort into it

I hope this works out for NE-2 (R) Rep candidate Tang Williams. She lit her (D) opponent on fire in their last debate.