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The +3 Harris Iowa Poll - Are you guys insane?
Posted on 11/2/24 at 8:54 pm
Posted on 11/2/24 at 8:54 pm
Let’s actually think about this for a second.
Those of you who believe that that poll is legit, are you willing to stand by it?
If it is a real and accurate poll, the state that Trump won with a wider margin than TX and FL is now in Harris’ column.
That means that Trump’s loss would be every swing state, TX, FL, GA, and probably only a win in LA, MS, AL.
Are yall insane?
Anyone want to take a lifetime ban bet on this?
If Trump wins Iowa by 6 pts or less, I will ban myself for life.
Anyone willing?
Those of you who believe that that poll is legit, are you willing to stand by it?
If it is a real and accurate poll, the state that Trump won with a wider margin than TX and FL is now in Harris’ column.
That means that Trump’s loss would be every swing state, TX, FL, GA, and probably only a win in LA, MS, AL.
Are yall insane?
Anyone want to take a lifetime ban bet on this?
If Trump wins Iowa by 6 pts or less, I will ban myself for life.
Anyone willing?
This post was edited on 11/2/24 at 8:56 pm
32
Posted on 11/2/24 at 8:55 pm to Scruffy
They have zero critical thinking skills
Posted on 11/2/24 at 8:55 pm to Scruffy
The democrats paid her to release that poll to gain some positive press.
It's pathetic.
It's pathetic.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 8:55 pm to Scruffy
I feel like polls were too good for Trump and people were too comfortable. We needed some shitty poll 2016 dragon energy injected into Trump supporters to wake them up. Now we're ready to frick them up on Tuesday.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 8:56 pm to Scruffy
It’s so insane that it’s really not worth posting to be honest.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 8:58 pm to Scruffy
I believe the selzer poll. Earlier today I took my wife’s son to the park while the missus was busy, and multiple people at the park were talking about all the momentum Harris is getting because Trump threatened to execute Liz Cheney. You can feel the electricity in the air.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 8:58 pm to Cornpoptiger
quote:Insane isn’t even a good enough description.
It’s so insane that it’s really not worth posting to be honest.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 8:58 pm to Scruffy
Neither Trump or Harris has campaigned in Iowa. If Iowa was close you would have seen 100 Trump rallies in Iowa already.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 8:59 pm to GumboPot
quote:If Iowa was close, the rest of the country would be voting for Harris.
Neither Trump or Harris has campaigned in Iowa. If Iowa was close you would have seen 100 Trump rallies in Iowa already.
There would be zero point in having rallies at all.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 9:00 pm to Scruffy
Nobody was talking Iowa before this poll. Hell, I don’t know if Harris has even been to Iowa. If her internals thought she could win Iowa, Harris would be in Iowa. This poll is an outlier.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 9:00 pm to Scruffy
I have to imagine it's people who are already prone to doomposting, and inexperienced with reading polls and detecting outliers based on data that doesn't make sense.
This group gets way too caught up in brand name and we only really know Selzer nationally because of the Wisconsin D+17 poll last year (ie. Selzer was the primary one to dispute it)
This group gets way too caught up in brand name and we only really know Selzer nationally because of the Wisconsin D+17 poll last year (ie. Selzer was the primary one to dispute it)
Posted on 11/2/24 at 9:01 pm to Scruffy
They’ve got to be brain dead.
Trump won in 2020 by 8 points, republicans were down 12 points in early voting turnout.
2024, it’s essentially tied in early voting turnout and we’re also dealing with a more red electorate now.
Yet somehow Trump is going to do worse than 2020 or lose?
Trump won in 2020 by 8 points, republicans were down 12 points in early voting turnout.
2024, it’s essentially tied in early voting turnout and we’re also dealing with a more red electorate now.
Yet somehow Trump is going to do worse than 2020 or lose?
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 11/2/24 at 9:03 pm to Bunta
quote:I am honestly starting to think they may be retarded.
They’ve got to be brain dead.
And not in an insulting way.
Like, they are actually mentally retarded.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 9:04 pm to Scruffy
If it’s indicative of waning support in key demos for midwestern states and he *only* wins Iowa by 4-5 points, then he’s probably in trouble in the grand scheme
It’s an outlier from a very good pollster, it’s not gospel.
You seem to think it must be dead on accurate to be a useful data point and that just isn’t how to evaluate these things
It’s an outlier from a very good pollster, it’s not gospel.
You seem to think it must be dead on accurate to be a useful data point and that just isn’t how to evaluate these things
Posted on 11/2/24 at 9:06 pm to NawlinsTiger9
Agreed. Harris sold me on SNL tonight. I can’t wait for a return to normal
Posted on 11/2/24 at 9:07 pm to NawlinsTiger9
quote:
If it’s indicative of waning support in key demos for midwestern states and he *only* wins Iowa by 4-5 points, then he’s probably in trouble in the grand scheme
This was just as true this morning as it is now. The point is that you can't take anything useful from this poll because the sample is garbage.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 9:07 pm to Scruffy
This is to draw eyes and resources off something else they're planning.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 9:08 pm to NawlinsTiger9
quote:So, accept my bet then.
If it’s indicative of waning support in key demos for midwestern states and he *only* wins Iowa by 4-5 points, then he’s probably in trouble in the grand scheme
quote:It is an outlier in relation to every other pollster.
It’s an outlier from a very good pollster, it’s not gospel.
quote:No, I think that if it is even within 5-6 points of being accurate, Trump loses every single swing state, TX, FL, GA, and every state short of LA, MS, AL.
You seem to think it must be dead on accurate to be a useful data point and that just isn’t how to evaluate these things
Again, you believe it shows that Trump won’t win Iowa by more that 5-6 points.
Accept my ban bet.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 9:08 pm to Scruffy
Don't do it. I generally like you. I absolutely don't expect it to happen, but it's election season. Alot of crazy shite happens.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 9:09 pm to Scruffy
These dumbasses are willing to drop billions to even odds in some dumb betting poll, of course they will pay for a fake poll.
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