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Started By
Message
Nevada early voting is now complete, looks like 6 EV for the good guys
Posted on 11/2/24 at 12:31 am
Posted on 11/2/24 at 12:31 am
Republicans gained another 5K today, lead is now up to 49k.
Just for comparison sake...
2020 - Dems held an overall 70k ballots returned lead after early voting was completed. Their final winning margin was 34k votes.
2024 - For the first time in 20 years in a Presidential election, Republicans lead after early voting is complete in Nevada, leading by 49,272
Dems are gaining about 2k a day in mail ballot returns so expect that lead to go down maybe 8-10k'ish before election day. 40k is insurmountable without cheating though.
The math simply isn't there for Dems. Even if you account for an abnormally high amount of Republican defections and winning the independents by an insane margin (20%+) Dems still fall short.
Just for comparison sake...
2020 - Dems held an overall 70k ballots returned lead after early voting was completed. Their final winning margin was 34k votes.
2024 - For the first time in 20 years in a Presidential election, Republicans lead after early voting is complete in Nevada, leading by 49,272
Dems are gaining about 2k a day in mail ballot returns so expect that lead to go down maybe 8-10k'ish before election day. 40k is insurmountable without cheating though.
The math simply isn't there for Dems. Even if you account for an abnormally high amount of Republican defections and winning the independents by an insane margin (20%+) Dems still fall short.
12
Posted on 11/2/24 at 12:35 am to StansberryRules
Whew that’s a lot of confidence. Might be fun to revisit this post next week lol
Posted on 11/2/24 at 12:36 am to StansberryRules
From your keyboard to God's ears
Posted on 11/2/24 at 12:38 am to StansberryRules
Jon Ralston has tapped out. Not even doing a blog tonight 
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 11/2/24 at 12:39 am to wareagle7298
NV seems more tilted towards the democrats in presidential races. I don't see how a 2 point or more win for teump doesn't translate to a solid electoral win for trump nationally. NV is a national bellwethwer
Posted on 11/2/24 at 12:40 am to Mickey Goldmill
quote:
Whew that’s a lot of confidence. Might be fun to revisit this post next week
You are going to be in a world of pain next Tuesday
Posted on 11/2/24 at 12:42 am to Mickey Goldmill
quote:
Whew that’s a lot of confidence.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 12:43 am to StansberryRules
quote:
without cheating
It’s their only way.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 12:48 am to John Barron
quote:
You are going to be in a world of pain next Tuesday
I’ve already said l think Trump will win…and my life will not change one bit.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 12:51 am to Mickey Goldmill
quote:
Might be fun to revisit this post next week lol
Might be fun to revisit THIS post next week.
Lol.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 12:53 am to Mickey Goldmill
quote:
and my life will not change one bit.
Oh, it’s gonna change. But for the better.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 12:54 am to John Barron
quote:
You are going to be in a world of pain next Tuesday
What JB really meant to say was C U Next Tuesday
Posted on 11/2/24 at 12:55 am to StansberryRules
A lot of dems are voting for Trumpmalso.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 1:16 am to Mickey Goldmill
quote:
and my life will not change one bit.
Watch that 401K skyrocket over the next 2 years and THEN say that...
Posted on 11/2/24 at 1:27 am to Mickey Goldmill
Then why the comment about next week? You say one thing to cover your arse but believe another. Proof is in the posts. We all know the democrats have spent more than 3:1 and they are now buying elections. Will it be enough is the question.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 1:33 am to Mickey Goldmill
quote:
I’ve already said l think Trump will win…and my life will not change one bit.
Should vote for him then so you can be on a winning team for once
Posted on 11/2/24 at 1:46 am to Mickey Goldmill
quote:
Trump will win…and my life will not change one bit.
I mean, if he reversed some of the stupidity put in play by the Dems, your life should improve some, even if only marginally.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 2:44 am to John Barron
quote:
You are going to be in a world of pain next Tuesday
It’s so funny watching Republicans so confident they’re gonna win just based on vibes lmao.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 3:05 am to StansberryRules
It makes me uneasy to hear early results before election day. It just helps Democrats know how many illegals they need to take to the polls on Election day and other ways to steal the election. Having knowledge before election day helps them plan the last minute steal like 2020.
This post was edited on 11/2/24 at 3:09 am
Posted on 11/2/24 at 3:26 am to Bonkers119
quote:
It’s so funny watching Republicans so confident they’re gonna win just based on vibes lmao.
The polling average in Nevada say Trump is ahead. The betting markets say Trump is ahead in Nevada. Nate Silver's model say Trump is ahead in Nevada. The early voting data says Trump is likely to win.
Every bit of actual data says Trump is winning Nevada. That's the exact opposite of vibes.
Is it a guaranteed sure thing? No. The data we have is incomplete, but it all points towards Trump. Anything else at this point is vibes.
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