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Exit polls show Trump with a higher share of early votes in PA than 2020
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:21 am
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:21 am
This CNN article from a couple of days ago pretty much says Harris is ahead everywhere, but buried down in the bottom was this nugget
The big IF here is whether or not those early R votes are subtracting from Tuesday or not. If not, he's got a great shot and winning PA
quote:
Those who say they have already cast ballots are included in each poll’s group of likely voters, and across all three states they break heavily in Harris’ favor (61% to 35% in Michigan, 60% to 38% in Wisconsin and 57% to 40% in Pennsylvania). Should those Pennsylvania numbers hold, they would reflect a significant shift in Trump’s favor compared with by-mail ballots cast in the 2020 election: Biden carried 76% of those votes to Trump’s 23%, according to the state’s election results.
The big IF here is whether or not those early R votes are subtracting from Tuesday or not. If not, he's got a great shot and winning PA
7
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:22 am to OldManRiver
They will cannabilze Tuesday some but I think overall will still be a net positive for republicans, personally
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:23 am to OldManRiver
Can't trust exit polls, or polls in general, IMO. Nothing is adding up leading up to election day. Early voting looks good, though. Just gotta vote.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:26 am to OldManRiver
Dems have cast 800k less early votes in PA than 2020
Repubs have cast 100k less
That should be nothing short of alarming for Democrats. Anything else is a fanfiction cope.
Repubs have cast 100k less
That should be nothing short of alarming for Democrats. Anything else is a fanfiction cope.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:37 am to The Boat
Under normal circumstances I would agree but what no one can estimate is the Covid factor, what portion of the Covid “decrease” from 2020 is affecting dems versus republicans. I agree with your overall thoughts but am curious about this
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:37 am to The Boat
It really just depends on election day turnout. Dems have a nearly 400,000 vote lead right now.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:38 am to OldManRiver
quote:That's the eternal question. I think it will a bit, because more republicans are early voting.
The big IF here is whether or not those early R votes are subtracting from Tuesday or not
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:39 am to blueboy
Go vote again, frick it
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:39 am to JumpingTheShark
I’m not buying that it means Dems will vote on Election Day. GOP early votes would be down the same proportion as well. The thing about these early votes is GOP isn’t increasing their early vote from 2020, they’re basically running even. It’s the Dems that are down big from their 2020 early vote.
It signals horrible Dem enthusiasm and GOP enthusiasm on par with 2020.
It signals horrible Dem enthusiasm and GOP enthusiasm on par with 2020.
This post was edited on 11/1/24 at 9:43 am
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:39 am to PraiseBCS
Day of. The pillow guy convinced me.pa voting is fricked. I got a letter thanking for a vote…. for a girl that hasn’t lived here ever. Same address. I reached out. Wasted time. 5 plus years of living here.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:39 am to Mickey Goldmill
quote:
It really just depends on election day turnout. Dems have a nearly 400,000 vote lead right now.
Yes exactly. That’s the whole point
Democrats are great at that, right?
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:41 am to The Boat
quote:
Dems have cast 800k less early votes in PA than 2020
Repubs have cast 100k less
That should be nothing short of alarming for Democrats. Anything else is a fanfiction cope.
WOW. I didn't know this. I love democrats thinking their lead is safe
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:42 am to Mickey Goldmill
quote:
It really just depends on election day turnout. Dems have a nearly 400,000 vote lead right now.
Dems had a 1.1 million early vote lead in 2020 and won the state by 80,000 votes.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:43 am to OldManRiver
Those exit polls have to be way off on early voting results. I think early voting is close to 50/50 in Wisconsin and probably 55 Harris/ 45 Trump in Michigan. Rural turnout in the early vote in Wisconsin and Michigan is through the roof.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:43 am to The Boat
quote:
Dems had a 1.1 million early vote lead in 2020 and won the state by 80,000 votes.
Sorry Dems … there’s not enough printers
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:46 am to OldManRiver
Hoping for a black woman who is in control of votes to flip.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:48 am to The Boat
quote:
Dems had a 1.1 million early vote lead in 2020 and won the state by 80,000 votes.
Yes, in 2020 mail voting was the preferred method of voting for many Dems. Comparing this election to 2020 seems a little foolhardy.
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:50 am to Mickey Goldmill
What are the numbers compared to 2016?
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:51 am to Gifman
Yeah - 400,000 vote lead right now seems to be far from enough.
If you take the people who have voted this cycle but did not vote in 2020 - which is 8.5% of the Penn vote - can you break them up by party affiliation?
If you take the people who have voted this cycle but did not vote in 2020 - which is 8.5% of the Penn vote - can you break them up by party affiliation?
Posted on 11/1/24 at 9:54 am to The Boat
quote:
It signals horrible Dem enthusiasm and GOP enthusiasm on par with 2020.
I really hope you are right.
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