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Breaking: Republicans continue to surge in Nevada
Posted on 10/23/24 at 11:17 pm
Posted on 10/23/24 at 11:17 pm
6
Posted on 10/23/24 at 11:20 pm to John Barron
Posted on 10/23/24 at 11:23 pm to John Barron
"About 400,000 people have voted, and with mail, GOP statewide lead almost 20,000 ballots.
Unheard of at this point in any other presidential cycle."
Unheard of at this point in any other presidential cycle."
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Posted on 10/23/24 at 11:24 pm to John Barron
All these early voting numbers are fun....but
How do we know we're not supplementing early voting by taking away from election day voting?
Maybe I'm wrong but there's no way to tell if these are additional voters or the same voters that We would have depended to vote on election Day already.
Just not sure why everybody is getting so pumped up about this, given the fact that Trump has told voters to vote early. It's not like it's some surprise
How do we know we're not supplementing early voting by taking away from election day voting?
Maybe I'm wrong but there's no way to tell if these are additional voters or the same voters that We would have depended to vote on election Day already.
Just not sure why everybody is getting so pumped up about this, given the fact that Trump has told voters to vote early. It's not like it's some surprise
Posted on 10/23/24 at 11:25 pm to John Barron
Posted on 10/23/24 at 11:28 pm to SportTiger1
quote:
Maybe I'm wrong but there's no way to tell if these are additional voters or the same voters that We would have depended to vote on election Day already.
There is a way to tell in some states. And in those states, the Republicans are getting more low propensity/new voters to vote more than Democrats.
It's why people like Halperin are saying that the race will be decided before election day if the current voting trends don't change.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.This post was edited on 10/23/24 at 11:37 pm
Posted on 10/23/24 at 11:37 pm to SportTiger1
You can track how much people vote in Nevada and that guy tracking the state says that Republicans have way more low propensity voters voting than the Dems do. GOP still looks to have a strong Election Day turnout like usual.
Posted on 10/23/24 at 11:41 pm to Jwho77
Correct, Low Propensity voters are turning out for Republicans in the early vote and High Propensity are turning out for Democrats
Posted on 10/24/24 at 12:27 am to John Barron
If I read that right, 400K plus have voted already in a state of 3.1 million. THAT'S high for this early.
Now straight from the state of Nevada from 2020:
2020 General Election Total
Active Registered Voters 1,822,166
Total Turnout 1,407,761 (77.26%)
Now straight from the state of Nevada from 2020:
2020 General Election Total
Active Registered Voters 1,822,166
Total Turnout 1,407,761 (77.26%)
Posted on 10/24/24 at 12:30 am to John Barron
Lets Gooooo! I sure do hope Trump pulls off an upset. I am also afraid that Democrats won't hand over power willingly. They will claim that the election wasn't "legitimate".
Posted on 10/24/24 at 12:43 am to Jwho77
quote:ah, there's the part I was missing. That's great news
There is a way to tell in some states. And in those states, the Republicans are getting more low propensity/new voters to vote more than Democrats.
Posted on 10/24/24 at 12:48 am to John Barron
Posted on 10/24/24 at 12:50 am to John Barron
Jon Ralston being an honest broker
Posted on 10/24/24 at 1:09 am to SportTiger1
quote:
How do we know we're not supplementing early voting by taking away from election day voting?
This, and the assumption that the pollsters have not corrected their past errors and are still undercounting Trump voters, are what have me worried.
quote:
There is a way to tell in some states. And in those states, the Republicans are getting more low propensity/new voters to vote more than Democrats.
quote:
Jwho77
I hope that’s it!
This post was edited on 10/24/24 at 1:13 am
Posted on 10/24/24 at 1:15 am to Jwho77
quote:
There is a way to tell in some states. And in those states, the Republicans are getting more low propensity/new voters to vote more than Democrats
Yes sir
Pruser has noted there are still plenty of more reliable GOP voters who still haven't voted yet. They could provide what he describes as a "backside pop" on election day.
Now we can quibble about use of terms and connotations and such, but the point remains.
This post was edited on 10/24/24 at 1:16 am
Posted on 10/24/24 at 4:04 am to Penrod
I don’t have the time to do it but someone could probably pull cross tabs and other things on these public polls and see if any significant changes were made.
I think I saw something essentially that 16 and 20 they were off while doing better in 18 and 22 without Trump.
The real question is do the numbers get more accurate without any change if more people are outspoken about being a Trump supporter.
I have made the assumption on these tied or close polls they are still off 2 points. I don’t want to say it’s whatever the avarage miss is. I’d rather under estimate and be pleased with the results.
I think I saw something essentially that 16 and 20 they were off while doing better in 18 and 22 without Trump.
The real question is do the numbers get more accurate without any change if more people are outspoken about being a Trump supporter.
I have made the assumption on these tied or close polls they are still off 2 points. I don’t want to say it’s whatever the avarage miss is. I’d rather under estimate and be pleased with the results.
Posted on 10/24/24 at 6:32 am to SportTiger1
quote:
Maybe I'm wrong but there's no way to tell if these are additional voters or the same voters that We would have depended to vote on election Day already.
They probably are but them voting early gives the campaign time to target low propensity voters. So the benefit is both that it is psychologically beneficial to you, and devastating to Dems, to go into Election Day with a lead; and also you then you get to turn out the dumbest people on your side which can be the difference
Posted on 10/24/24 at 6:36 am to John Barron
Does Nevada typically have that many independents?
Posted on 10/24/24 at 6:36 am to MAADFACTS
That’s another part of it and part of the early push is to then direct resources to the rest.
Now best news would be a lot of early voting R are new voters/ones that rarely vote and then you have high Election Day turnout.
Curious how they define low participation for a voter.
Every 4 years or is it a longer period.
Now best news would be a lot of early voting R are new voters/ones that rarely vote and then you have high Election Day turnout.
Curious how they define low participation for a voter.
Every 4 years or is it a longer period.
Posted on 10/24/24 at 6:37 am to RougeDawg
I think Nevada has always had a lot of independents. It feels like a state that would have a lot
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