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Harris now the comfortable betting favorite on all sites; wtf is going on?

Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:06 am
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91480 posts
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:06 am
I don’t put a ton of stock in polls, but the betting markets are a different animal IMO. Harris has now moved to the favorite across the board. Here’s to hoping it’s just a honeymoon phase…



RCP Betting Markets


This post was edited on 8/13/24 at 7:07 am
Posted by LSUGreg
Gonzales
Member since Jan 2006
684 posts
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:07 am to
quote:

wtf is going on


Democrats mismanage money.
Posted by oldskule
Down South
Member since Mar 2016
23942 posts
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:08 am to
Oddsmakers know there will be fraudulent activity and that favors the DEMS!
Posted by Knight of Old
New Hampshire
Member since Jul 2007
12789 posts
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:08 am to
Go back to your handlers…
Posted by Bunk Moreland
Member since Dec 2010
66986 posts
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:08 am to
I had the same exchange with a friend yesterday. He was freaking out about the odds. I said that I absolutely believe the polls are skewed now and will reflect reality closer to the election, but that I would have thought betting markets would sniff out the BS.
Posted by Rtowntiger
Member since Dec 2012
2622 posts
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:08 am to
Makes zero sense. She is objectively horrible and has zero no platform and is currently trying to switch every stance she has ever had.
Posted by udtiger
Over your left shoulder
Member since Nov 2006
113538 posts
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:09 am to
Money can influence betting lines quicker and more effectively than polling. It's also not subject to any FEC restrictions/caps or oversight.

This is the Dem leaning dark money trying to create an air of inevitability.
Posted by aTmTexas Dillo
East Texas Lake
Member since Sep 2018
23246 posts
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:09 am to
If true? If really true then Trump really only was acceptable to 40 something% of the population.

And we will find out.
Trump needs to work hard. Harris hasn't.
Posted by Seldom Seen
Member since Feb 2016
48737 posts
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:10 am to
Gamblers are people with poor judgement - tune in for more news at 11
Posted by Night Vision
Member since Feb 2018
19881 posts
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:10 am to
Posted by TrueTiger07
Madison, MS
Member since May 2007
3105 posts
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:10 am to
Trump has the strongest 40% base of all time, and he can’t get out of his own way with the 10-12% that matters.
Posted by Penrod
Member since Jan 2011
53359 posts
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:11 am to
WTF is going on is that Trump is a historically unpopular candidate who is about to lose the popular vote for the third time. This was masked when the opposition was a dementia patient, but now it’s a vibrant, smiling, positive candidate.

Maybe Trump can force Kamala into extemporaneous speaking, and maybe she turns out to be as incompetent as we hope, but if not, Trump will be slaughtered in the popular vote, and he will have to hope for a narrow electoral victory.

ETA: What TrueTiger says in the post just above is 100% correct.
This post was edited on 8/13/24 at 7:12 am
Posted by llfshoals
Member since Nov 2010
20794 posts
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:11 am to
quote:

Trump needs to work hard. Harris hasn't.
Trump is working hard.

Harris won’t have to, she has the media doing everything for her
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
470122 posts
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:12 am to
quote:

Trump really only was acceptable to 40 something% of the population.


I'd be a LOT of money he won't get 50% of the popular vote in November, win or lose.
Posted by Furious
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2023
1326 posts
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:12 am to
Fakest news of all time
Posted by Gaston
Dirty Coast
Member since Aug 2008
41694 posts
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:12 am to
You would actually put money on a bet that the Democrats aren’t going steal this election? You could just give it to me instead…I’ll buy you a drink at least.
Posted by aTmTexas Dillo
East Texas Lake
Member since Sep 2018
23246 posts
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:13 am to
quote:

Trump has the strongest 40% base of all time, and he can’t get out of his own way with the 10-12% that matters.


It's a broken record but we can't underestimate the dirty, sinister, unAmerican effect of a corrupt media protected by the First Amendment.
Posted by Lou Pai
Member since Dec 2014
29497 posts
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:13 am to
I wouldn't call that a comfortable betting favorite but:

Relief wave among dems and left of center independents from Biden not being the nominee

RFK fading

Media propping her up and creating the perception of hype, which can lead to actual hype among sheep

Massive financial resources from fundraising over past few weeks

Trump barely laying a glove on her at all and letting her be redefined by the dem machine and media, unscathed

Trump kicking back after the convention and playing golf 5x a week, not rallying or doing events in swing states
Posted by LuckyTiger
Top 1% On Onlyfans
Member since Dec 2008
51495 posts
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:13 am to
A democracy is only as good as the people voting and you get the government you deserve in a democracy?
Posted by RaginCajunz
Member since Mar 2009
7100 posts
Posted on 8/13/24 at 7:14 am to
The collective media controls it all.

Biden was unassailable for years, then on a dime 2-3 weeks of “he must go.”

He’s now gone and Kamala is benefiting from the same power, only positive kid glove treatment.

Reality at the polls in November? Who knows
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