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What are the odds of another tech crash coming?
Posted on 6/27/24 at 8:08 am
Posted on 6/27/24 at 8:08 am
If China decides to take Taiwan after the election (assuming Biden wins/cheats), I can see the tech sector suffering for a bit while the industry tries to figure out what to do about the chip shortage. Am I ignorant here or is this a real possibility?
9
Posted on 6/27/24 at 8:27 am to TDsngumbo
Why is China waiting until after the election?
Posted on 6/27/24 at 8:38 am to TDsngumbo
I don't think China is in a hurry here. In all likelihood neither of the candidates debating tonight will be president if/when that occurs.
Posted on 6/27/24 at 8:40 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
Why is China waiting until after the election?
Posted on 6/27/24 at 8:46 am to TDsngumbo
Why haven't they tried to take taiwan at any point in the last 3.5 years?
You seem to think they need Biden to be president for them to feel confident invading Taiwain. Biden is president now. Why are they waiting until after he may no longer be president?
You seem to think they need Biden to be president for them to feel confident invading Taiwain. Biden is president now. Why are they waiting until after he may no longer be president?
Posted on 6/27/24 at 8:53 am to TDsngumbo
If/when China takes Taiwan, the industry has already started moving to other countries (Japan and SK, primarily) so the hit will likely not last as long as many fear as those facilities (and others) ramp up to make up the loss. I'm not saying it won't hurt (new car sales, for example) but it will likely resolve itself within 3-5 years.
The closest thing tech has to an incoming crash is the boom/bust cycle of hiring moving into the "bust" category as tech companies begin to divest themselves of excess positions. Prolonged high inflation and high consumer debt-creation (at historically high interest rates, in some cases) has started eating into tech consumption so they have been cutting excess positions (the longer this last, the more we will begin seeing this in other industries as well).
AI is proving to not be the panacea to the world's ills (see also: EVs) like the proponents had been promoting, but it's still strong. We may see the industry slowly deflate instead of crash (as there is definite utility there) from that.
The closest thing tech has to an incoming crash is the boom/bust cycle of hiring moving into the "bust" category as tech companies begin to divest themselves of excess positions. Prolonged high inflation and high consumer debt-creation (at historically high interest rates, in some cases) has started eating into tech consumption so they have been cutting excess positions (the longer this last, the more we will begin seeing this in other industries as well).
AI is proving to not be the panacea to the world's ills (see also: EVs) like the proponents had been promoting, but it's still strong. We may see the industry slowly deflate instead of crash (as there is definite utility there) from that.
Posted on 6/27/24 at 9:08 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
What are the odds of another tech crash coming?
If China decides to take Taiwan
You’re asking about a single tree (sector), when that scenario would actually affect the entire forest.
Posted on 6/27/24 at 9:10 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
If China decides to take Taiwan
Are you thinking China would invade Taiwan with military force? Rather than using monetary and political pressure?
Posted on 6/27/24 at 9:16 am to TDsngumbo
It will happen....at some point in the future.
Posted on 6/27/24 at 10:04 am to TDsngumbo
The odds of a tech crash are 100%.
The “when” is the question you should be asking?
The “when” is the question you should be asking?
Posted on 6/27/24 at 10:56 am to slackster
We are probably in a mini tech bubble, but I don't think it's anything like the .com era. A lot of those companies didn't make any money.
Most of these companies are wildly profitable, they just seem to be a little over their skis from a valuation standpoint.
Most of these companies are wildly profitable, they just seem to be a little over their skis from a valuation standpoint.
Posted on 6/27/24 at 11:51 am to Bard
quote:I agree with this. Some of the big companies almost seem to be running charities for their employees. We watched Twitter lay off like 70% of their "workers" - and the sky didn't seem to fall (despite media predictions of such). I think we will see a lot of layoffs (especially older employees).
The closest thing tech has to an incoming crash is the boom/bust cycle of hiring moving into the "bust" category as tech companies begin to divest themselves of excess positions. Prolonged high inflation and high consumer debt-creation (at historically high interest rates, in some cases) has started eating into tech consumption so they have been cutting excess positions (the longer this last, the more we will begin seeing this in other industries as well).
But actual earnings are just too crushing for a price crash, IMO. Sure, maybe valuations can come down.
quote:Not a panacea, but they ain't stopping.
AI is proving to not be the panacea to the world's ills
Posted on 6/27/24 at 12:07 pm to TDsngumbo
I could be wrong, but if China takes Taiwan, I don't think tech stock performance is at the top of the list of things to worry about.
Posted on 6/27/24 at 2:41 pm to FinleyStreet
quote:China won't be taking Taiwan
I could be wrong, but if China takes Taiwan, I don't think tech stock performance is at the top of the list of things to worry about.
Posted on 6/27/24 at 7:05 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:22.837513368%
What are the odds of another tech crash coming?
Posted on 6/27/24 at 11:06 pm to LSURussian
quote:
3.5000000%
fixed
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