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Home prices will go down this summer as sellers can't postpone listing any longer

Posted on 6/11/24 at 6:39 pm
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
179210 posts
Posted on 6/11/24 at 6:39 pm
Home prices will go down this summer as sellers can't postpone listing any longer, Redfin CEO says

quote:

Home prices will fall this summer as owners cave to selling pressure, according to Redfin's CEO.

The real estate brokerage is anticipating a 1% price drop by the end of the year.

Homes in Florida and Texas are already beginning to see "major price cuts," the firm said.




quote:

House prices will drop this summer as homeowners trying to wait out high mortgage rates are realizing they can't postpone moving any longer, according to Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman.

The chief executive of the online real estate brokerage pointed to signs that the housing market is starting to get more affordable.

Homes in key metros, like Florida and Texas, are already seeing "major price cuts," Kelman said. Meanwhile, over 6% of US home sellers issued a price cut in May, the largest proportion recorded in over a year, Redfin found in a recent report.

The decline in prices is due to homeowners giving up on trying to wait out high mortgage rates. As more owners opt to list their home after a year or more of waiting, supply of available inventory is growing and prices are beginning to budge, Kelman said.

"A lot of our customers are folks who got a divorce last year, and the husband and the wife are driving each other crazy, or they own a townhouse, and they've had a third child, and they're just bursting at the seams," he said in a recent interview on The David Lin Report. "At some point, even though people don't want to sell, they have to sell."

According to Redfin data, the supply of available homes rose to 1.6 million in April, up 13.7% from the same time last year. Meanwhile, the number of newly listed homes for sale rose to 621,000, up 17.4% from last year.

"We really saw, in the first three or four months of the year, new listing accelerate. Now there's just a large number of active listings," Kelman said. "When homes sit on the market, you start to see prices soften."

Redfin is predicting US home prices will fall 1% by the end of the year. That price decline could take time, though, Kelman said.



1% is optimistically conservative IMO
Posted by grizzlylongcut
Member since Sep 2021
14277 posts
Posted on 6/11/24 at 6:41 pm to
quote:

Homes in key metros, like Florida and Texas, are already seeing "major price cuts," Kelman said.


I’m in the market to buy right now in the DFW metro and this is what I’m seeing as well
This post was edited on 6/11/24 at 6:42 pm
Posted by kciDAtaE
Member since Apr 2017
17447 posts
Posted on 6/11/24 at 6:41 pm to
…says redfin CEO
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
179210 posts
Posted on 6/11/24 at 6:43 pm to
quote:

I’m in the market to buy right now and this is what I’m seeing as well


I have seen reports of places in FL already seeing as high as 30% price cuts by builders in areas like Cape Coral.

Austin has reportedly been hit hard by cuts as well.

Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
179210 posts
Posted on 6/11/24 at 6:43 pm to

quote:

…says redfin CEO



OK?

Posted by Dawgfanman
Member since Jun 2015
25811 posts
Posted on 6/11/24 at 6:47 pm to
Won’t almost every person described in this article be both a seller and a buyer at some point this summer? How will that help inventory or lower demand/increase supply?
Posted by kciDAtaE
Member since Apr 2017
17447 posts
Posted on 6/11/24 at 6:51 pm to
Let me guess. Halliburton CEO is bullish on oil futures. Buy our stock now!
Posted by TROLA
BATON ROUGE
Member since Apr 2004
14370 posts
Posted on 6/11/24 at 6:53 pm to
quote:

I have seen reports of places in FL already seeing as high as 30% price cuts by builders in areas like Cape Coral.


I’ll be curious if it reaches 08 timeframe levels percentage wise. As you mentioned, lots of new builds seeing cliff style drops and existing homeowners worried about what they think they have. I hope the locked in rates for many will keep the overall market from collapse
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
179210 posts
Posted on 6/11/24 at 6:55 pm to
quote:

Won’t almost every person described in this article be both a seller and a buyer at some point this summer?


Some people sell and choose to rent. It happens. We have a record number of multi family being completed this year


quote:

How will that help inventory or lower demand/increase supply?



Outside of the multi-family SFH inventory is on the rise too.


Twitter Link


Then there is this


4M baby boomer homes should hit market each year until 2032



Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
93083 posts
Posted on 6/11/24 at 6:55 pm to
quote:

Home prices will fall this summer as owners cave to selling pressure, according to Redfin's CEO.


maybe Miami Condos and Boise Idaho

Equity is on pace for another 6%
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
179210 posts
Posted on 6/11/24 at 6:57 pm to
quote:

Let me guess. Halliburton CEO is bullish on oil futures. Buy our stock now!



Your comparison is a horrible one. How does predicting a market correction help Redfin? 1% isn't enough to get the market moving if the prediction is correct.
Posted by SelaTiger
Member since Aug 2016
21196 posts
Posted on 6/11/24 at 6:57 pm to
Homes in SELA seem to have been dropping already. Interest rates and insurance as high as giraffe pussy killing homeowners looking to sell.
Posted by kciDAtaE
Member since Apr 2017
17447 posts
Posted on 6/11/24 at 7:00 pm to
quote:

Your comparison is a horrible one. How does predicting a market correction help Redfin? 1% isn't enough to get the market moving if the prediction is correct.


The entire premise of the article is more people will be listing homes. Who benefits from more homes on the market? Perhaps Redfin
Posted by Dawgfanman
Member since Jun 2015
25811 posts
Posted on 6/11/24 at 7:00 pm to
quote:

4M baby boomer homes should hit market each year until 2032


First paragraph of that link:

Aging baby boomers leaving their existing homes either through downsizing or death will have minimal impact on housing inventory and prices over the next decade and beyond, a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association's Research Institute for Housing America found.

Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
179210 posts
Posted on 6/11/24 at 7:01 pm to
quote:

The entire premise of the article is more people will be listing homes


This happens every year during the Summer. It's not a groundbreaking prediction. The premise is that prices will drop due to a smaller pool of buyers.
Posted by Porpus
Covington, LA
Member since Aug 2022
2623 posts
Posted on 6/11/24 at 7:01 pm to

quote:

Home prices will go down this summer as sellers can't postpone listing any longer


JohnCandySureSure.gif
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
179210 posts
Posted on 6/11/24 at 7:03 pm to
quote:

First paragraph of that link:



Yes as a stand-alone statistic. When you add it to the increase in multi-family, and new construction is where it all makes a difference.

I like how you skipped the graph showing the increase in new homes, though.

Inventory leveling out is still a ways off but increasing.
Posted by auwaterfowler
Alabama
Member since Jan 2020
2866 posts
Posted on 6/11/24 at 7:03 pm to
I can assure you there will be no price drops in Auburn
Posted by Teddy Ruxpin
Member since Oct 2006
40554 posts
Posted on 6/11/24 at 7:05 pm to
quote:

Austin has reportedly been hit hard by cuts as well.


Relative to what, list?

That market would probably have to fall 50% at current valuations to get to 2020 values.

I'll add even with property tax relief passed last year, and with the 10% cap on increases year over year, it will still take like a decade for property taxes to stop going up if valuations stayed flat.
This post was edited on 6/11/24 at 7:08 pm
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
179210 posts
Posted on 6/11/24 at 7:07 pm to
quote:

Relative to what, list?


They usually look at it quarterly and/or YOY


quote:

That market would probably have to fall 50% at current valuations to get to 2020 values.



Where did anyone say it was going to see 2020 values?


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