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Started By
Message
How Much would y'all Hedge?
Posted on 5/25/24 at 10:38 pm
Posted on 5/25/24 at 10:38 pm
Got really lucky this week and have a 1,600 win ticket for Davis Riley at the Schwab.
Scottie is +125 going into tomorrow
Everybody else down to 8 shots back is 30-1 or more and can cover those what ifs with enough to take away something for $100 combined.
Question is, how much would you hedge on Scottie?
Leaning toward $320 to win 400
leaves most of the risk on Riley, but won't walk away completely empty handed either if Scottie, well, goes all Scottie.
Scottie is +125 going into tomorrow
Everybody else down to 8 shots back is 30-1 or more and can cover those what ifs with enough to take away something for $100 combined.
Question is, how much would you hedge on Scottie?
Leaning toward $320 to win 400
leaves most of the risk on Riley, but won't walk away completely empty handed either if Scottie, well, goes all Scottie.
6
Posted on 5/25/24 at 10:40 pm to adamau
Posted on 5/25/24 at 10:43 pm to adamau
How is he only +125 being 4 strokes back? That feels nuts. I would hedge my original bet by enough to break even and let it ride.
Posted on 5/25/24 at 10:43 pm to North Dallas Tiger
You bet $1600 on Davis Riley to win before the event!? Or your payout is $1600?
Posted on 5/25/24 at 10:44 pm to AZTiger7072
If your payout is $1600
I would probably wager at least $500 on Scotty and guarantee myself $1000
I would probably wager at least $500 on Scotty and guarantee myself $1000
Posted on 5/25/24 at 10:45 pm to AZTiger7072
Payout... hell it's a $4 bet. He was 400-1. Total free roll deal.
Posted on 5/25/24 at 10:47 pm to adamau
I guess that would be guaranteeing yourself $600 or so… honestly I would just live bet it
Posted on 5/25/24 at 10:54 pm to AZTiger7072
quote:
I honestly I would just live bet it
I've had that thought... my one fear is Scheffler comes out hot and he'll be so expensive you can't do anything with it. He's just priced so crazy right now
Posted on 5/25/24 at 11:00 pm to adamau
Just put 400 on Scottie and guarantee yourself a nice day. Stress free. Either win 500 or 1200
Posted on 5/25/24 at 11:41 pm to WareagleTD
quote:
Just put 400 on Scottie and guarantee yourself a nice day. Stress free. Either win 500 or 1200
Thanks, decided to go this route. Will cover anyone further down live if the need arises.
Posted on 5/26/24 at 12:04 am to adamau
Field is -125 vs. Riley. I would take that over +125 Scottie.
Winner has come from way back twice in the last 3 years. I know it’s a redesign but when it gets firm and fast on Sunday afternoon at Colonial I think you want to be in the clubhouse.
Scottie obviously your biggest threat but if Riley shoots 75 tomorrow which seems at least possible, Finau/Sungjae/Straka etc are only 3-4 behind Scottie and will be playing an hour earlier in some cases.
I would go something like $600 to win $480 on the field.
Winner has come from way back twice in the last 3 years. I know it’s a redesign but when it gets firm and fast on Sunday afternoon at Colonial I think you want to be in the clubhouse.
Scottie obviously your biggest threat but if Riley shoots 75 tomorrow which seems at least possible, Finau/Sungjae/Straka etc are only 3-4 behind Scottie and will be playing an hour earlier in some cases.
I would go something like $600 to win $480 on the field.
Posted on 5/26/24 at 12:10 am to adamau
I would just calm your self down and let it ride.
Posted on 5/26/24 at 2:34 am to volfan30
Yes absolutely go field instead of Scheffler if it’s an option
I hope you didn’t just leave yourself totally exposed if those two guys don’t win.
I hope you didn’t just leave yourself totally exposed if those two guys don’t win.
This post was edited on 5/26/24 at 2:37 am
Posted on 5/26/24 at 4:30 am to TheWalrus
You also now have to account for the risk of Scottie Scheffler getting arrested before he is able to tee off lol
Posted on 5/26/24 at 6:09 am to WareagleTD
Gonna laugh if somehow someone like Tony Finau wins lol
Posted on 5/26/24 at 7:13 am to adamau
frick hedging
Posted on 5/26/24 at 9:01 am to TheWalrus
quote:
I hope you didn’t just leave yourself totally exposed if those two guys don’t win.
Covered everybody down to Finau at -7 for $80
The odds on those guys all being more than 30-1 made that part easy.
Also anybody at -6 getting home would be in the historic range, so just gonna monitor those guys to hit live if needed
Posted on 5/26/24 at 9:17 am to adamau
Hedging is dumb. You’re finally in line to likely cash in on a big odds bet but you handicap your payout by making another -EV bet.
Posted on 5/26/24 at 9:19 am to Jon Ham
quote:
Hedging is dumb. You’re finally in line to likely cash in on a big odds bet but you handicap your payout by making another -EV bet.
Do you even Scottie Scheffler?
ETA: all jokes aside...if it wasn't the best golfer on earth nipping at his heels, i think a lot harder about letting it ride. But in the end, i'm gonna use the leverage of a 4 dollar freeroll to walk away with a solid pop one way or another. I've made worse decisions. I know i my 400-1 drops to either 300-1 or 100-1, but in the end I'll take every single guaranteed 100-1 I can lay my hands on.
This post was edited on 5/26/24 at 9:29 am
Posted on 5/26/24 at 9:20 am to adamau
quote:
Covered everybody down to Finau at -7 for $80 The odds on those guys all being more than 30-1 made that part easy.
This was how I’d go about it. Still in line to win ~$1,500 but guaranteeing about 10x your original bet.
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