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Started By
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Well...real or puffed up BS, job numbers = no rate cut
Posted on 4/5/24 at 7:39 am
Posted on 4/5/24 at 7:39 am
B(S)LS reporting 303k jobs added last month (versus 200k expected).
UE ticks down to 3.8%
Of course, there are a bunch of devils in these details, but this definitely will delay (at best) any rate cuts by the FED.
UE ticks down to 3.8%
Of course, there are a bunch of devils in these details, but this definitely will delay (at best) any rate cuts by the FED.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 7:44 am to udtiger
It is kind of funny.
The Biden administration keeps pumping out high job numbers (see the revisions) which is not what Powell wants to see.
The Biden administration keeps pumping out high job numbers (see the revisions) which is not what Powell wants to see.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 7:45 am to udtiger
And now we wait to see what the revisions show
Posted on 4/5/24 at 7:46 am to udtiger
The market is already unhooked from reality. Why do they even care about rates at this point? It’s all play money.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 8:12 am to wheelr
quote:
The Biden administration keeps pumping out high job numbers (see the revisions) which is not what Powell wants to see.
There's been LOTS of speculation (not entirely unjustified) that JPow will drop rates regardless of anything outside of an extreme inflation growth, just to help Biden and the Dems in November.
From his actions (as opposed to his words), I don't think that's going to be the case. Yes, he's stated the desire for three cuts this year (which the market wildly interpreted as six - lmfao) and has stayed on the optimistic end of his rhetoric, but rates haven't been raised. In fact, one of the Fed chairs this week was speaking strongly on holding onto the pause for the rest of the year.
I'm still of the same belief I was going into Q4 of last year: we need at least another quarter-point hike. The continued stickiness of inflation proves my point.
Based on the trending of the numbers and the time of year, IF there's a rate cut this year, it won't happen until the September meeting. More likely, as consumers get out and about more and as refineries move over to summer blends, pump prices are going to rise and that's going to drive inflation upward (along with the continued strong job creation in healthcare, government and leisure/hospitality) to the point where we may see another hike well before any cuts.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 8:16 am to Bard
Those numbers get revised down almost every month. They shouldn't eyen report the number until they know the final tally.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 8:20 am to wareagle7298
quote:
Those numbers get revised down almost every month.
Sometimes yes, sometimes no. While February has been revised down 5k (from 275k to 270k), January was revised upward BIGLY (up 27k from 229k to 256k).
While Feb was down, it was by such a small amount as to be negligible, especially when weighed against expectations.
quote:
They shouldn't eyen report the number until they know the final tally.
That's why they are called "initial" reports. The media glosses over that, touting them as concrete and that muddies the waters for most people. All that said, I don't necessarily disagree with you.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 8:20 am to wareagle7298
No rate cuts in fall
Powell (Trump appointee)
Should of been raising rates in fall 2020
He did not
Import Container pricing in 2020 went from 3500 to
$35k and Powell sat on his hands
He’s a passive guy
Powell (Trump appointee)
Should of been raising rates in fall 2020
He did not
Import Container pricing in 2020 went from 3500 to
$35k and Powell sat on his hands
He’s a passive guy
Posted on 4/5/24 at 8:22 am to udtiger
Hiring illegals to cut the grass shouldn't be included.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 8:22 am to Tmcgin
Powell isnt a Trump guy clown
Govy Jobs for all
Govy Jobs for all
Posted on 4/5/24 at 8:24 am to Tmcgin
I glance at some alt economic libertarian types and one of the guys I enjoy respects Powell and seems to think he is pressured by everyone to cut, but doesn't want to do it.
This post was edited on 4/5/24 at 8:26 am
Posted on 4/5/24 at 8:27 am to OysterPoBoy
quote:
The market is already unhooked from reality. Why do they even care about rates at this point? It’s all play money.
The US added over $800 billion of debt in the 1st quarter........that's encouraging.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 2:01 pm to PUB
Confirmed. Jobs were to illegals and part time.
This government is full of shite and corrupt. Purposely destroying the country.
300 days is more than enough time for this country to be 100% communist. There is no turning back either.
This government is full of shite and corrupt. Purposely destroying the country.
300 days is more than enough time for this country to be 100% communist. There is no turning back either.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 2:02 pm to OysterPoBoy
quote:
The market is already unhooked from reality. Why do they even care about rates at this point?
I feel like I've been saying this for a long, long time.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 2:03 pm to Bard
quote:
The media glosses over that, touting them as concrete and that muddies the waters for most people.
Duh.
That’s the entire point of the government even releasing them.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 2:08 pm to Bard
quote:
January was revised upward BIGLY (up 27k from 229k to 256k).
This is strange. In March they stated the following:
The department cut 124,000 payroll gains from the 353,000 jobs initially reported for January. The revised total was just 229,000 .
So January was first reported as 353,000 jobs.
Then in March they revised it DOWN 124,000 to 229,000
Now this month revised again - Up 27,000
Posted on 4/5/24 at 2:33 pm to udtiger
Part timers and illegals that make up the #'s
Posted on 4/5/24 at 2:34 pm to Bass Tiger
quote:
The US added over $800 billion of debt in the 1st quarter........that's encouraging.
Exactly. Interest rates aren't a magic bullet. Especially when the government is dumping trillions of dollars into the economy.
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