How likely is it we see the Balkanization of the States in our lifetime?

I think there is a good chance.

It will require a significant crisis to trigger it.

I would wager war or finances as most likely.

There are a few low-friction ways that a hyper-partisan governor can functionally secede from other states -- not recognizing professional licensures, degrees/ credentials, disallowing expenditures of state funding.

Anything decided by an appointed "state board".

Division of the people re basic beliefs and allegiances always results in war. War first and then the establishment of ("Balkanization") 'states/nations/etc'. I think a lot of people believe and hope that the 'war' period can be skipped, but that is highly unlikely given that the disagreements are core principles wherein there is little space for compromise and coexistence. Think Marxism vs Constitutional Principle or Jewish State vs Hamas/Islamism.

IMO, we are very close to the 'war' period. Enjoy this Holiday time with loved ones, and if you are Christian, pray for Jesus' mercy and vision in the coming years. Herding cats in not the ticket to utopia. Educating the cats is, albeit many 'cats' are unable to know/see, for various reasons.

Lord have mercy on them who worship Love.

Considering my age I kind of doubt I'll see it though I'm not totally sure of that but if things stay on the current path they are on you younger folks here might.

The variable is you just never know for sure what events the future may hold

Zero likelihood.

The Missouri Compromise was rolled out in 1820 .
It took 40 years for Gen. Beauregard to start firing on Union forces at Ft. Sumter.

I believe that we are at the point of the Dred Scott Decision because of what the Colorado supreme court did a couple of days ago. We are balkanized now.

10 democrat states kept Lincoln off the ballot in their states. dems are back in the Slave Trade with the illegal immigrants and traffiking the illegal minors around the country.

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How likely is it we see the Balkanization of the States in our lifetime?

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If we just returned to the base principles of our Constitutional Republic as it was brilliantly designed, it would be better than balkanization. Alas, that seems like it won't happen.

So how likely is balkanization? Hopefully the likelihood is high, but I have my doubts. The coup has already occurred and the federal government is already conquered. Look at how drastically and rapidly this country has regressed since around 2010, and it becomes inarguable that it was very deliberate.

I believe that if we don't see a major pushback and balkanization/secession wothin the next decade, the very soul of America will be dead and gone forever. I'm glad my WWII veteran grandfathers aren't around to see how rapidly the country they fought for has fallen apart.