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re: What do you think will be the "canary in the coal mine" for a recession?

Posted on 10/23/23 at 2:51 pm to
Posted by Auburn80
Backwater, TN
Member since Nov 2017
8158 posts
Posted on 10/23/23 at 2:51 pm to
People have been predicting a major collapse for 4 years. It will be a more gradual decrease that has already started than a major event.
Posted by shutterspeed
MS Gulf Coast
Member since May 2007
65844 posts
Posted on 10/23/23 at 2:54 pm to
State government layoffs.
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
125438 posts
Posted on 10/23/23 at 2:54 pm to
Posted by CatfishJohn
Member since Jun 2020
15245 posts
Posted on 10/23/23 at 2:56 pm to
quote:

Consumer purchasing is the key indicator….



People are still burying themselves in debt and not changing how they purchase. Unfortunately, this is going to end very poorly for everyone.

Posted by EmmittLBrown
Member since Oct 2023
275 posts
Posted on 10/23/23 at 2:57 pm to
quote:

Consumer purchasing is the key indicator….


Not by expenditures. We are paying significantly more for significantly less. How is consumer spending monitored to account for costs?
Posted by Klark Kent
Houston via BR
Member since Jan 2008
67413 posts
Posted on 10/23/23 at 3:00 pm to
quote:

When the OT has fewer than 3 new threads per day to complain about food prices


what kind of dual income you and your... SO pulling down for inflation not to effect you? fareplay was still whining about housing prices and they are pulling down north of 350k/year.

Posted by secfballfan
Member since Feb 2016
3181 posts
Posted on 10/23/23 at 3:14 pm to
A dead canary in a coal mine.
Posted by JohnnyKilroy
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
36637 posts
Posted on 10/23/23 at 3:31 pm to
Idk when recession is coming but considering tswift just made like a billion dollars on her tour I would say people still have A LOT of money to burn.
Posted by TutHillTiger
Mississippi Alabama
Member since Sep 2010
44336 posts
Posted on 10/23/23 at 4:59 pm to
We are in one now
Posted by Beessnax
Member since Nov 2015
9525 posts
Posted on 10/23/23 at 5:23 pm to
quote:

my blue collar nephew-in-law with zero education but a solid work ethic can't make ends meet.

Right now he's making over $100k a year working his butt off supporting his family with 9th grade education.


What are his expenses? I know people who have the same income and are doing well
Posted by Guetteur
Member since Sep 2023
149 posts
Posted on 10/23/23 at 5:44 pm to
If you are now looking for signs you must be blind. We are and have been in a recession for multiple quarters.
Posted by Sheep
Neither here nor there
Member since Jun 2007
19690 posts
Posted on 10/23/23 at 6:04 pm to
quote:

What specific indicator do you think will foretell a real recession?


When people who are either:

- Qualified and educated for white collar work
- Have a pulse and willing to do sweat work

Can't readily find a job.
Posted by FLTech
the A
Member since Sep 2017
17392 posts
Posted on 10/23/23 at 6:06 pm to
When little Caesar’s start closing everywhere because people are too poor to pay for $5 hot pizzas
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
59547 posts
Posted on 10/23/23 at 6:06 pm to
quote:

We are and have been in a recession for multiple quarters.


If so, this has been the weakest recession ever.
It was be bad for many chicken littles out there when the economy really contracts.
Posted by BuckyCheese
Member since Jan 2015
52932 posts
Posted on 10/23/23 at 6:07 pm to
quote:

When the flow of freight slows, an economic slow down usually follows. I think upwards of 90% of stuff moves via ocean freight and then that filters down to trains and trucking.



Has been happening for months.
Posted by El Segundo Guy
SE OK
Member since Aug 2014
9999 posts
Posted on 10/23/23 at 6:15 pm to
Not a whole lot. It's rural Oklahoma.
Posted by tigerfoot
Alexandria
Member since Sep 2006
57706 posts
Posted on 10/23/23 at 6:17 pm to
13 dollar packs of boneless chicken thighs
Posted by roadGator
Member since Feb 2009
145277 posts
Posted on 10/23/23 at 6:32 pm to
quote:

WB Davis


Biden voting cork soaker
Posted by Mr Breeze
The Lunatic Fringe
Member since Dec 2010
6255 posts
Posted on 10/23/23 at 7:02 pm to
When they send me and the wife another $1,200 stimulus check that we don't need.

They went to the food bank we support.
Posted by Trevaylin
south texas
Member since Feb 2019
6899 posts
Posted on 10/23/23 at 7:05 pm to
cardboard boxes........Last three months volume of cardboard box shipments to goods manufactures have fallen off the proverbial cliff


RV sales.....Volume of class A rv sales has dropped by half this year
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