How far does Oil fall?

Load the boat at $75. Just a wild-arse guess.

Cheap energy may just may enable a soft landing

It has been my biggest frustration with this administrations monetary policy. Squeezing energy w8th rigid policy during high inflationary period is foolish as frick.

That being said, my xom buy target is 108. May have to re evaluated if this continues to show no sign of a bottom

Saudi Arabia, Russia and other countries, oil is the cash cow that funds their governments. The royals subsidize just about everything for it's peasants to keep them happy. During last oil downturn, royals govt had big shortfall and had to remove or lower some subsidies for the peasants and they like to have went nuts. I do not see those regimes allowing oil to stay low for extended periods of time

It’s such a strange thing to follow along to the ups and downs of the expectations on oil prices.
Last week some of the politard folks were in panick mode predicting oil could be $150 to $200 next year.

I can’t imagine how frustrating it would be to be an owner of one of the smaller companies trying to plan your business and future around such and unpredictable commodity.
Even if general supply and demand figures show a healthy price, one or two countries can change their mind about their strategy and fck it all up.

There is clear demand destruction occurring across a wide swath of the middle class economy. Perhaps it’s he impact of the student loan stuff, but a lot of Americans are traveling less, eating out less, and making conscious decisions about energy consumption.

Rents are declining, Air BNB rentals are declining, and a lot of restaurants and retail chains are closing a number of their locations.

If the current administration makes a decision to replenish SPR it might have an impact, but there are no signs of that happening today.

Diesel fuel shortages will increase in frequency …. primarily due to Russia’s ban on exports and increased regulatory impact by current US policy towards energy.

IMO, Oil could drop further based on further demand destruction …. which is what the Fed desires. Increased fuel prices in general will add to that demand destruction.

The S&P, oil, gold, silver ….. all are currently bouncing off of key support levels ….

And if those key support levels are broken, we could certainly see further declines.

Your question was how much of a drop though …. and that’s a more difficult prediction to make.

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Perhaps it’s he impact of the student loan stuff, but a lot of Americans are traveling less, eating out less, and making conscious decisions about energy consumption.

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I guess the cutting back in travel could be finally happening, but it sure doesn’t seem like that’s been the case at all recently.
Overall you make good points though

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How far does Oil fall?

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There's way too much chaos to gauge that right now.

We're heading into a bad economic season (another interest hike at the end of the month all but written in stone, continued rising credit card debt, continued rising delinquencies, PPI rising, CPI rising, student loan repayments starting back up, etc. and absolutely nothing on the horizon to change any of that before -at least- sometime next year) so demand should drop as we hit the recession (meaning prices drop as supplies build). Does OPEC cut production even more to drive prices up? Does the US consumer double-down on the "frick it" mentality and spend even more into debt by travelling more? Biden mandated a 50% increase in ethanol back around May, do we get a shite yield next year (making corn, thus domestic gasoline, prices go up)?

And those are just the things off the top of my head.

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i didnt take my own advice and sell.

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Same here, but damn. I gotta start learning my lesson and taking some chips off the table every now and then

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BRICs unpredictability, possibility of war over Taiwan,

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Meh. Pretty far fetch either of these happening, especially the joke about BRICS meaning anything on a global scale that will matter.

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Meh. Pretty far fetch either of these happening, especially the joke about BRICS meaning anything on a global scale that will matter.

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I tend to agree with you on BRICs, but WRT to Taiwan, you might want to check that. Signs are all there, and if they're going to go, the clock is ticking. If Pooh Bear doesn't go within the next four years, he won't go at all.