No severe weather thread today?

Moderate risk from Louisiana to Georgia

Hail, damaging winds and tornadoes possible throughout this afternoon and tonight in several different waves of supercells. Odd June setup for sure with storms moving east to southeast. Already a few discrete cells in Georgia tornado warned



ArkLaTex to GA through tonight...
The unusually strong flow pattern continues from the southern Plains
eastward to the Southeast, with 50+ kt midlevel flow across the
corridor, coincident with steep midlevel lapse rates and strong
buoyancy. Embedded speed maxima will move generally eastward
through this corridor, around the southern periphery of the midlevel
closed low over the lower Great Lakes. The primary severe threat
will continue through the afternoon and into tonight from the
ArkLaTex across MS/AL into southern GA.

Multiple clusters of severe storms are ongoing, including both
supercells and line segments. The cluster in northern MS will
likely persist through the afternoon while moving east-southeastward
across central AL, where additional supercell development is
expected within the warm sector ahead of the cluster. The
environment of large buoyancy (MLCAPE 3000-4000 K/kg) and effective
bulk shear in excess of 60 kt is quite unusual for mid June into the
I-20 corridor, and this will support an unusually high threat for
severe storms (including significant severe events). Supercells
will be capable of producing isolated very large hail to near 3
inches in diameter with the supercells forming in northeast TX, and
with supercells farther east into AL. A complex storm evolution is
expected from MS across AL into GA along the buoyancy gradient, as
the ongoing clusters and new storms interact and potentially support
upscale growth into larger clusters.

Swaths of wind damage, some up to 80 mph, can be expected with the
MS/AL clusters this afternoon and into GA along the residual outflow
boundary. This boundary will locally enhance low-level shear, with
the potential for a few tornadoes (a couple of which could be
strong), from southwest GA into southeast/central AL with both the
isolated supercells and with embedded circulations in any larger
clusters. Another cluster could evolve from the northeast TX
supercells, and this convection will have a corridor of strong
instability to support its maintenance across northern LA into
central MS and eventually AL later this afternoon into early
tonight. The initial supercells could produce very large hail,
while upscale growth will favor swaths of damaging winds (some
significant), as well as a few tornadoes.

...Central TX this afternoon/evening...
Strong-extreme buoyancy is expected again across central TX, but
forcing for ascent will be weak. If sufficient heating/mixing can
occur, an isolated storm may form this afternoon along the surface
front into central TX. The environment conditionally favors
splitting supercells with very large hail, though storm
formation/coverage is uncertain.

...Northern Mid-Atlantic/southern New England this afternoon...
Pockets of surface heating will drive weak buoyancy to the east of
the low across southern New England, where isolated strong-severe
storms may occur (see MD #1037 for additional information).

..Thompson/Squitieri.. 06/14/2023