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Started By
Message
re: Housing: WTF?
Posted on 3/16/23 at 11:11 pm to Big Scrub TX
Posted on 3/16/23 at 11:11 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
That doesn't seem that much - especially not in markets where shite exploded up 50-100% (like it did in my area).
Let’s think about this. What if you paid $1,000,000 in 2021 for a house that cost $500,000 in 2019. Then it declined 10% in value to $900,000 (of course it could go down further).
At first you think it doesn’t matter because you got a low interest rate.
But what if you have to sell - divorce, job loss, higher paying job offer in another state, health issue, etc.
You’d have to sell at a $100,000 lose. Would you say nbd because it’s only 10%?
You could be waiting a long time just to get back to break even. Even longer factoring in transaction fees.
1
Posted on 3/16/23 at 11:13 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
Austin area is going to be ok for the foreseeable future since the inventory simply isn’t there.
Posted on 3/16/23 at 11:34 pm to Paul Allen
Idk man.
Redfin
The chart in there looks like a year over year decline is coming soon.
We’ll see what happens in the Spring selling season. I’ll go out on a limb and say prices will drop at a faster pace than they already are.
quote:
What is the housing market like in Austin today? In February 2023, Austin home prices were down 19.3% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $194K. On average, homes in Austin sell after 22 days on the market compared to 30 days last year. There were 6 homes sold in February this year, down from 11 last year.
Redfin
The chart in there looks like a year over year decline is coming soon.
We’ll see what happens in the Spring selling season. I’ll go out on a limb and say prices will drop at a faster pace than they already are.
Posted on 3/16/23 at 11:37 pm to SaintsTiger
Even if mortgage rates go down you still think prices will continue to drop?
Posted on 3/16/23 at 11:44 pm to Paul Allen
That’d help. But if tech and other workers get laid off in the area there’d be less demand, hurting prices.
Posted on 3/17/23 at 12:21 am to SaintsTiger
Wrong city in your link. That’s for Austin, AR not Austin, TX.
Posted on 3/17/23 at 12:28 am to Paul Allen
quote:How much were they up prior to that?
Prices in Travis county and surrounding areas are down 20%.
And this was the hottest market in the country for the past three years.
Posted on 3/17/23 at 12:29 am to The_Duke
quote:Melodrama much
Sure--banks collapsing left and right
quote:
Ppl buying 100k jpegs of Apes
Already went to zero.
quote:Already a lot deflated.
Tech bubble 2.0
quote:The fact that we're not heading for a GLOBAL RESET!!!! doesn't mean there are no problems.
no big deal--everything is fine
We get it - you want things to be bad.
Posted on 3/17/23 at 1:02 am to Lightning
quote:
combined salaries ~$200k, add a kid or two, and these people are going to struggle to buy a home at these prices.
That family is bringing home 12k net or so per month after taxes/insurance/some retirement savings and you think they’ll struggle with a 4000 dollar mortgage payment?
4000 mortgage
1200 (600x2) car payments
1000 food
1000 misc bills (energy/cell/cable/etc)
300 gasoline
Where is the struggle?
Posted on 3/17/23 at 3:59 am to SaintsTiger
10% on all time high inflated prices isn’t a ‘crash’ 
Posted on 3/17/23 at 5:39 am to Dawgfanman
quote:
4000 mortgage 1200 (600x2) car payments 1000 food 1000 misc bills (energy/cell/cable/etc) 300 gasoline
Student loans and retirement $1500
Being left with 2k-3k a month on 200k salary is pretty demoralizing.
Posted on 3/17/23 at 5:43 am to Paul Allen
Good catch. If you’ll change it to TX you’ll see a year over year price decline over 1%.
YouTube breaking down actual Austin Market Close to 20% price declines from peak! Also record amounts of new construction coming online. The biggest builder there Lenar is going bankrupt.
YouTube breaking down actual Austin Market Close to 20% price declines from peak! Also record amounts of new construction coming online. The biggest builder there Lenar is going bankrupt.
Posted on 3/17/23 at 6:01 am to Paul Allen
quote:
Even if mortgage rates go down you still think prices will continue to drop?
From yesterday:
quote:
Demand for mortgages increased for the second straight week, despite some volatility in mortgage rates.
Total application volume rose 6.5% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) decreased to 6.71% from 6.79%, with points falling to 0.79 from 0.80 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment.
LINK
Posted on 3/17/23 at 6:05 am to The Baker
quote:
Being left with 2k-3k a month on 200k salary is pretty demoralizing.
Having 25% of your net income leftover to park wherever you want/need is demoralizing?
I need to tell that to my stay at home wife.
Posted on 3/17/23 at 6:07 am to SaintsTiger
Did you mean Lennar?
LINK
quote:
Homebuilder Lennar Corp (LEN.N) on Tuesday reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit as high property prices helped offset supply shortages caused by rising material costs and a labor crunch.
Shares of the company rose 3.5% to $104.3 after the bell.
Home demand shot up across the United States when pandemic-era remote work trends allowed people to look for more affordable properties away from big cities, boosting the margins of homebuilders such as Lennar and D.R. Horton Inc (DHI.N).
LINK
Posted on 3/17/23 at 6:25 am to ronricks
Yup.$ 5.7 B projected income and $25.7 B in direct expenses in 2023. LINK
Your info shows that the income just wasn’t as bad as expected.
The builder has a ton of inventory that won’t sell. Even the Lennar rental division won’t buy it. Hmmm. Many of builders, including Lennar Inthink, are still building not because of a golden opportunity but rather the banks will call their loans if they stop.
You might want to sell your shares before it goes BK.
Your info shows that the income just wasn’t as bad as expected.
The builder has a ton of inventory that won’t sell. Even the Lennar rental division won’t buy it. Hmmm. Many of builders, including Lennar Inthink, are still building not because of a golden opportunity but rather the banks will call their loans if they stop.
You might want to sell your shares before it goes BK.
Posted on 3/17/23 at 7:00 am to SaintsTiger
I don't have any 'shares' of Lennar but the information you have been posting in this thread is misinformation. You have been all over the place with incorrect info.
Posted on 3/17/23 at 7:02 am to Dawgfanman
quote:
quote:
combined salaries ~$200k, add a kid or two, and these people are going to struggle to buy a home at these prices.
That family is bringing home 12k net or so per month after taxes/insurance/some retirement savings and you think they’ll struggle with a 4000 dollar mortgage payment?
4000 mortgage
1200 (600x2) car payments
1000 food
1000 misc bills (energy/cell/cable/etc)
300 gasoline
Where is the struggle?
Not sure I agree with your math. I use 30% for combined federal and state taxes. That alone yields less than 12k/month. Add in insurance and retirement and that continues to shrink. Increased house values also result in higher property taxes.
$1000 for feeding a family of 4 seems low as well.
I am not saying it can't be done but it wouldn't be as easy as you make it out to be
Posted on 3/17/23 at 7:05 am to Hangit
quote:
according to Zillow.
I wouldn’t put too much stock in Zillow’s estimates.
Posted on 3/17/23 at 7:07 am to ronricks
Wouldn’t be surprised if you’re a real estate agent. BTW it’s well known that agents are leaving the industry in droves.
Wake up and smell the coffee. Or do you predict price increases?
Wake up and smell the coffee. Or do you predict price increases?
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