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Started By
Message
re: 30-year fixed-rate mortgages reach 7.15%
Posted on 10/20/22 at 6:46 am to stout
Posted on 10/20/22 at 6:46 am to stout
quote:
The last time it was over 7% was in March of 2002 so this is the highest it's been in 20 years
And what was the average home price in 02?
Accounting for inflation and the insane home prices, people won’t be able to afford shite right now.
1
Posted on 10/20/22 at 8:04 am to SDVTiger
SDV is correct. As someone in the mortgage industry rates will lower in Q1. The inflation numbers will start to fall here shortly
Posted on 10/20/22 at 8:12 am to elprez00
quote:
Accounting for inflation and the insane home prices, people won’t be able to afford shite right now.
Purchase volume is still in the trillions which is record highs
quote:
ellesssuuu
This post was edited on 10/20/22 at 8:13 am
Posted on 10/20/22 at 12:44 pm to SDVTiger
as UST yields hit new 14yr highs , the value of $OCN MSR's grows by the day ... demand for a refi mortgage just hit 25yr lows yesterday ... keep in mind many mortgages are now over 300bps below refi rates thus may see near zero prepays for many years to come
Posted on 10/20/22 at 12:53 pm to tigerfive
quote:
One thing no one has mentioned is that lower home values plus higher interest rates means that for the same amount of payment each month, the lender gets more of the pie. High home prices and low rates mean that more of the money spent is going to individuals who then spend it in the economy.
This is how you get inflation, in addition to the inflation affecting the home price.
Posted on 10/20/22 at 12:54 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
High 3s yes it would have been if we didnt have 40yr inflation highs
That's like saying that donuts would be healthy if they didn't make you fat.
Posted on 10/20/22 at 1:31 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
Its not really that high
My 30 year fixed rate from August of 2020 is
2.625 %
Who the frick are you telling that 7.15% isn’t high ?!!? Not me. Cause I’ll call you a fricking idiot and tell you to see the above
Posted on 10/20/22 at 1:35 pm to reggierayreb
quote:
My 30 year fixed rate from August of 2020 is
2.625 %
Who the frick are you telling that 7.15% isn’t high ?!!? Not me. Cause I’ll call you a fricking idiot and tell you to see the above
The more accurate statement would be that your 2.625% is extremely low historically
Posted on 10/20/22 at 1:40 pm to ellesssuuu
quote:
SDV is correct. As someone in the mortgage industry rates will lower in Q1.
I'll take that bet.
FOMC will raise rates by 75 in November and then again in Jan and 50-75 Feb.
ETA: Besides that, they will like have to sell some of the securities they own to remove liquidity in the system which will likely push rates even higher.
This post was edited on 10/20/22 at 1:42 pm
Posted on 10/20/22 at 1:44 pm to Powerman
I understand the historical significance of 2.625. That’s why I paid 20% down on a 30 year note and bought when I did. I also understand that we’re staring down a 200% increase in that rate by Q1 2023. Don’t try to convince any prospective home buyer born in the late 70s or early 80s that 7.15% isn’t high. It is high.
Posted on 10/20/22 at 1:47 pm to bbvdd
quote:
I'll take that bet.
FOMC will raise rates by 75 in November and then again in Jan and 50-75 Feb.
Exactly - I honestly don't know what these other posters are smoking. They obviously don't listen to the guidance that the FOMC gives which outlines what's in store post mid-terms. Nothing whatsoever suggests Powell won't continue to raise a min of 50 bips at every FOMC meeting for the next 6 months.
Posted on 10/20/22 at 2:15 pm to Tomatocantender
Do you know the difference between coupon and effective rates on a mortgage note, MBS rates and the fed funds rate?
Posted on 10/20/22 at 2:36 pm to reggierayreb
quote:
Who the frick are you telling that 7.15% isn’t high ?!
I think you misread his tone.
I believe he was saying the rates aren't that high (ie, not really 7.15%)
Posted on 10/20/22 at 2:40 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
wutangfinancial
I'll be damned, look who it is. I haven't see you since about a year ago when you falsely claimed that the word "transitory" was an old economic term and perfectly described inflation. Do you remember when I had to school you that it was an arbitrary made-up term by Bernanke in 2012? Do you also remember when I had to correct you that there wasn't one single interest rate hike in all of Obama's 8 years? It's nice to have you back asking stupid questions again. Shall I find that thread from a year ago so everyone can have a little laugh at you? I honestly forgot about your dumbass. Welcome back.
Posted on 10/20/22 at 3:05 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
Do you know the difference between coupon and effective rates on a mortgage note, MBS rates and the fed funds rate?
Are you trying to imply that the FFR won't drive mortgage rates?
Posted on 10/20/22 at 3:07 pm to La Place Mike
quote:
Not excusing Biden of anything but when I first started in the Mortgage business many years ago that rate was low.
That’s cool and all but you could probably get a decent house at 100k. What do you think you will find at that price now?
Posted on 10/20/22 at 3:15 pm to bbvdd
quote:
Are you trying to imply that the FFR won't drive mortgage rates?
That's his game. He's gonna respond with the effective yield formula and try to play kabuki theatre with you, all the while you have the ace in the hole with knowing exactly what the fed funds rate will be at 75 bips per meeting over the next quarter. He's an imbecile. I took him at face value and became dumber for trying to reason with him.
Posted on 10/20/22 at 3:22 pm to bbvdd
Yes
Posted on 10/20/22 at 3:25 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
That's like saying that donuts would be healthy if they didn't make you fat.
Well inflation drives the mortage rates
So if it wasnt out of control we would have been high 3s
And why it will lower in Q1 probably March
quote:
Who the frick are you telling that 7.15% isn’t high ?
Obviously you arent the brightest
Rates are not at 7.15 maybe retail or low down with low fico on a purchase
quote:
Are you trying to imply that the FFR won't drive mortgage rates?
The dont drive mortgage rates
quote:
FOMC will raise rates by 75 in November and then again in Jan and 50-75 Feb.
Good it shows they are fighting inflation which will drive Mortgage rates down
This post was edited on 10/20/22 at 3:34 pm
Posted on 11/10/22 at 8:30 am to SDVTiger
quote:
U.S. Treasury yields declined across the board on Thursday after the October consumer price index report, a key inflation measure, came in weaker than expected, signaling that price increases have possibly peaked.
As predicted
Hopefully this starts the spiral towards 5% mortgage rates
10yr dropping
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