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Started By
Message
Where do you predict the market will be on Jan 31st?
Posted on 10/10/22 at 10:31 pm
Posted on 10/10/22 at 10:31 pm
Compared to today. Up or down whatever percentage. I'm expecting at least a 15% drop by then with the bottom still on the way.
9
Posted on 10/10/22 at 10:53 pm to Thundercles
I think it bottoms at the bc end of November around 27k
Posted on 10/10/22 at 10:55 pm to Thundercles
quote:
I'm expecting at least a 15% drop by then with the bottom still on the way.
Why? Just wondering what your reasoning is.
Posted on 10/10/22 at 11:44 pm to slackster
A dramatic amount of money has to be pulled out of the market. Jerome Powell has said again and again they will raise interest rates until the labor market has softened (read: large scale layoffs). He has also said this will continue until inflation is down to the normal 2%. This requires a full breaking of the market. Every analysis of the stocks show they are egregiously overvalued compared to historical trends due to the massive influx of money over the last two years. That value has to be drawn out now.
The market should have started a dip in late 2019 / early 2020 but Trump pressure and coronavirus instead created an artificial opposite effect. If you look at the DJIA, it was around 28-29k at that time and that should have been the top, and a market swoon to around 24-25k through 2022 would have made sense. We still have to return to that number at some point to reset and continue on.
The market should have started a dip in late 2019 / early 2020 but Trump pressure and coronavirus instead created an artificial opposite effect. If you look at the DJIA, it was around 28-29k at that time and that should have been the top, and a market swoon to around 24-25k through 2022 would have made sense. We still have to return to that number at some point to reset and continue on.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 3:20 am to Thundercles
With the way the market is acting…… it’s too far out to say.
All the Fed has to do is give a hint that it will reverse its current course and it will jump up 3000 points.
All the Fed has to do is give a hint that it will reverse its current course and it will jump up 3000 points.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 6:53 am to Thundercles
quote:
Every analysis of the stocks show they are egregiously overvalued compared to historical trends due to the massive influx of money over the last two years. That value has to be drawn out now. The market should have started a dip in late 2019 / early 2020 but Trump pressure and coronavirus instead created an artificial opposite effect. If you look at the DJIA, it was around 28-29k at that time and that should have been the top, and a market swoon to around 24-25k through 2022 would have made sense. We still have to return to that number at some point to reset and continue on.
Can you show your work with some charts or valuation metrics or something?
Seems like the market has done a lot of the work already.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 7:13 am to Thundercles
quote:
The market should have started a dip in late 2019 / early 2020 but Trump pressure and coronavirus instead created an artificial opposite effect. If you look at the DJIA, it was around 28-29k at that time and that should have been the top, and a market swoon to around 24-25k through 2022 would have made sense. We still have to return to that number at some point to reset and continue on.
Go post this on the Poli Board and see how many downvotes you get.
The Fed has artificially inflated the market since the ‘08 crash and our politicians have spent us into oblivion. We are not in a good spot.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 7:42 am to Thundercles
12
Not 12000
12
ETA: the stock market is fake
Y’all people that talk about “passive investing” are basically welfare queens getting yalls vanguard food stamps in your black rock Cadillac
At some point the corporations decided they didn’t want to give us pensions and spend actual money and they could just have the taxpayer subsidize it. The taxpayer being millenials, the beneficiary being the boomers.
Every year the corporation takes your money and puts it into an ira and matches it like 3% which is basically just a tax write off. This money goes to vanguard, and after they donate 10 million to Hillary, they call up Nancy pelosi and tell her to print more money so the stocks go up
I mean let’s face it, we’ll just force those millenials to work til they die so us boomers can buy another rv with our vanguard tendies amirite
Not 12000
12
ETA: the stock market is fake
Y’all people that talk about “passive investing” are basically welfare queens getting yalls vanguard food stamps in your black rock Cadillac
At some point the corporations decided they didn’t want to give us pensions and spend actual money and they could just have the taxpayer subsidize it. The taxpayer being millenials, the beneficiary being the boomers.
Every year the corporation takes your money and puts it into an ira and matches it like 3% which is basically just a tax write off. This money goes to vanguard, and after they donate 10 million to Hillary, they call up Nancy pelosi and tell her to print more money so the stocks go up
I mean let’s face it, we’ll just force those millenials to work til they die so us boomers can buy another rv with our vanguard tendies amirite
This post was edited on 10/11/22 at 8:19 am
Posted on 10/11/22 at 8:26 am to el Gaucho
Part 2:
The US doesn’t have an economy anymore all we do is buy junk from China and put it in boxes and sell it to each other
We used to have a real economy where a young person could get a fulfilling job at the factory or coal mine or whatever and work your 8 hour shift and then go get drunk with your boys at the bowling alley and then drive your muscle car home to your not fat wife who had dinner on the table because she didn’t work because a 5 bedroom house cost 20k
At some point “the powers that be” shut it all down with osha and the epa. It wasn’t even nafta that killed American manufacturing, by the time that came along it was nearly dead due to oppressive regulations. Make children mine again
Anyway millenials are tired of shouldering the burden of society and that’s why you see so many institutions collapsing. I don’t think the generation below us will even enter the workforce. Y’all have demoralized us too bad by telling us to go to college and our lives would be good. It was all lies bruh
The house of cards is collapsing
The US doesn’t have an economy anymore all we do is buy junk from China and put it in boxes and sell it to each other
We used to have a real economy where a young person could get a fulfilling job at the factory or coal mine or whatever and work your 8 hour shift and then go get drunk with your boys at the bowling alley and then drive your muscle car home to your not fat wife who had dinner on the table because she didn’t work because a 5 bedroom house cost 20k
At some point “the powers that be” shut it all down with osha and the epa. It wasn’t even nafta that killed American manufacturing, by the time that came along it was nearly dead due to oppressive regulations. Make children mine again
Anyway millenials are tired of shouldering the burden of society and that’s why you see so many institutions collapsing. I don’t think the generation below us will even enter the workforce. Y’all have demoralized us too bad by telling us to go to college and our lives would be good. It was all lies bruh
The house of cards is collapsing
Posted on 10/11/22 at 8:27 am to slackster
quote:
Why? Just wondering what your reasoning is.
Because Jamie Dimond said so......get with the game slack.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 8:45 am to slackster
Let me guess: stocks have priced everything in? 
Posted on 10/11/22 at 9:19 am to wutangfinancial
Honestly the only hope for western society now is for Putin to save us
Putin basically harriet Tubman for millenials
Putin basically harriet Tubman for millenials
Posted on 10/11/22 at 9:42 am to el Gaucho
Posted on 10/11/22 at 11:10 am to wutangfinancial
quote:
Let me guess: stocks have priced everything in?
Let me guess: TD MT readers are the only ones who know any of the current economic risks and future uncertainties? For the record, I am not saying we have bottomed or that everything is priced in but if people on here know something, so does the market.
Personally, I think there is an inverse relation between those who think they can predict the market in the short term versus their actual knowledge on the subject.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 11:48 am to bod312
quote:
For the record, I am not saying we have bottomed or that everything is priced in but if people on here know something, so does the market.
If "the market" to you is the equity market I have bad news for you. That's the dumbest money in capital markets
Posted on 10/11/22 at 1:05 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
That's the dumbest money in capital markets
This may be true and should not be surprising but that does not mean below is not true.
quote:
but if people on here know something, so does the market.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 2:35 pm to Thundercles
I predict I'll be firing my FA for not having any sort of playbook for a higher interest rate environment.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 2:35 pm to bod312
quote:
but if people on here know something, so does the market.
It's priced in, bro
Posted on 10/11/22 at 3:45 pm to Thundercles
Probably 18K if the democrats retain all of congress.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 5:12 pm to kywildcatfanone
I've tagged this person's quote twice now, but I'm onboard with their line of thought.
I think the Dow is headed to 23-24K. We haven't seen panic, we haven't seen capitulation, the market is still higher than it was when the Covid sell off happened (28.2K) and it was overinflated then. A crash is coming, too much fake money not too and crashes don't land at the previous bottom, they blow right through them.
I think the Dow is headed to 23-24K. We haven't seen panic, we haven't seen capitulation, the market is still higher than it was when the Covid sell off happened (28.2K) and it was overinflated then. A crash is coming, too much fake money not too and crashes don't land at the previous bottom, they blow right through them.
quote:
What we need is more action, less words. I have seen market crashes, and this has been the most timid, where people still go and buy the dips. Are you serious? In real crashes, the Fed cuts the margin of broker accounts. Yep. In real crashes, markets go up and down in a single day, 700 to 1000 points. That's real volatility. We have yet to reach a point where the machines of Wall Street throw in the towel. And I do know where that point will be. We have yet to lower earning estimates for most stocks. And I do know what happens when real earnings collapse. The Graham-Dodd equation has always been my guide to valuation. And interest rates are pathetically still negative. Look at JNK. Its still flying high. When it real crashes, that bond index crashes. The bond market is still floating up in the sky like a weather balloon. What we need is real interest rates to rise to Mt Everest and the 20 year bond is smashed to 50% below present levels.
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