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Going for 2-pt When Down by 2 TDs
Posted on 9/9/22 at 12:19 pm
Posted on 9/9/22 at 12:19 pm
A lot of conversation has been dedicated to the last play of the game, but the decision not to go for the 2-pt conversion was much more aggravating to me when LSU scored the second to last touchdown. If you're down by 14 in the 4th quarter and score a touchdown, THAT is when it's logical to go for 2. If you make it, then you just need a PAT to win the game. If you miss it, you still have a chance to go for 2 again and send it to OT.
Brian Kelly brought up analytics when addressing his decision to kick the PAT, so this analytical oversight is even more bothersome.
Brian Kelly brought up analytics when addressing his decision to kick the PAT, so this analytical oversight is even more bothersome.
12
Posted on 9/9/22 at 12:27 pm to Non Cajun Tiger
He was playing for overtime even down two tds.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 12:48 pm to Non Cajun Tiger
quote:
Brian Kelly brought up analytics when addressing his decision to kick the PAT, so this analytical oversight is even more bothersome.
Is it more likely to make 2 extra points, or to make 1 of 2 2pt conversion attempts? Seems like it has to be a fairly high, say 95+ percentile to make 2 extra points. Is it more likely than that to go 1 for 2 on 2pt attempts?
Posted on 9/9/22 at 1:02 pm to hashtag
Making 2 extra points doesn’t allow you to win in regulation. Making 1 of 2 two-point conversions allows you to win in regulation.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 1:28 pm to Non Cajun Tiger
there is no analytical statistic to back up going for two when down 8. you kick the xpt and cut the lead to 7
Posted on 9/9/22 at 2:14 pm to Box Geauxrilla
quote:
Making 2 extra points doesn’t allow you to win in regulation. Making 1 of 2 two-point conversions allows you to win in regulation.
Lol wut
Posted on 9/9/22 at 2:16 pm to Non Cajun Tiger
This is correct. You’re starting to see this often in the NFL, but I’ve yet to see a college coach do this.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 2:17 pm to hashtag
quote:
Is it more likely to make 2 extra points, or to make 1 of 2 2pt conversion attempts? Seems like it has to be a fairly high, say 95+ percentile to make 2 extra points. Is it more likely than that to go 1 for 2 on 2pt attempts?
It's just analytics.
Assumptions:
55% 2 pt conversion rate
99% XP
Call it 50% Overtime win chance since analytics doesn't take momentum into account.
Scenarios:
1. Kick both XPs and play for OT - .99 * .99 * .50 = 49% chance to win.
2. Go for 2 after first TD:
.45 * .45 = 20% chance to lose in regulation
.55 * .99 = 55% chance to win in regulation
.45 * .55 * .50 = 12.5% chance to win in overtime
.45 * .55 * .5 = 12.5% chance to lose in OT
Again. It's in a bubble, but given the assumptions of scoring two TDs in the final minutes down 14 points, the stats show you are more likely to win going for two down 8.
I honestly didn't even think about it at the time.
This post was edited on 9/9/22 at 2:20 pm
Posted on 9/9/22 at 2:17 pm to ExpoTiger
he meant to say converting on the first 2 point conversion allows you to win in regulation. you cut it to 6 and just need to make the 2nd XP to win
Posted on 9/9/22 at 2:21 pm to hashtag
True, the safer bet is kicking the extra points. A statistic I would be curious to see is how well teams do in overtime after tying the game from being down by multiple touchdowns.
If the team that was losing has to expend more energy to catch up or use their better plays to score the must-have points, then maybe the tend to do worse in overtime. If the numbers back that up, then I think that impacts the decision of "safe bet to tie vs not-terrible bet to win"
If the team that was losing has to expend more energy to catch up or use their better plays to score the must-have points, then maybe the tend to do worse in overtime. If the numbers back that up, then I think that impacts the decision of "safe bet to tie vs not-terrible bet to win"
Posted on 9/9/22 at 2:22 pm to Box Geauxrilla
quote:
Making 1 of 2 two-point conversions allows you to win in regulation.
Not if you miss the first attempt.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 2:45 pm to Non Cajun Tiger
In a week of shite takes, we waited till Friday to crown the champ.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 2:53 pm to Non Cajun Tiger
quote:
Going for 2-pt When Down by 2 TDs
that is the dumbest take ever
you want to risk going down an extra score just to avoid a tie that keeps you alive and still in the game
you never go for 2 unless you need the 2 pointers to tie the game
Posted on 9/9/22 at 2:56 pm to bigbenlsu
quote:
The analytics folks have been saying this for a while, mostly during NFL broadcasts. There are legitimate statistics to back it up. Kelly was never going to do it though.
Doesn’t college scrimmage from the three yard line; while the pros scrimmage from the two on a two point try?
It’s not the same.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 3:11 pm to yimbeaux
quote:
there is no analytical statistic to back up going for two when down 8. you kick the xpt and cut the lead to 7
LOL
Going for 2 down 8 points: Why NFL teams keep doing it, and why analytics backs them up
An NFL team is down by 14 points in the fourth quarter, and it scores a touchdown to pull within 8. The consensus says the team should kick the extra point, right? Not so fast.
In analytics circles, attempting a 2-point conversion when down 8 points late in the game has long been discussed as a slam-dunk decision that NFL coaches should make. Recently, it has become a choice that some coaches actually do make.
quote:
Between 2000 and 2017, there were only two instances in which a team was down 14 points, scored a touchdown to cut the deficit to 8 and went for 2 on purpose (excluding aborted PAT attempts). And one was in a snowstorm, when kicking can be adventurous. Since the start of 2018, it has happened 12 times, including the Colts' attempt on Saturday.
Reasonable people can disagree, but to say there is no basis is moronic.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 3:12 pm to Box Geauxrilla
quote:
Making 2 extra points doesn’t allow you to win in regulation. Making 1 of 2 two-point conversions allows you to win in regulation.
Only if you win the first.
If you lose the first, you are then playing for a tie, needing a 2 Point to get said tie.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 3:33 pm to tigerfoot
quote:
In a week of shite takes, we waited till Friday to crown the champ.
in a week's worth of takes on Tiger Rant, you think an analytically-backed criticism of Brian Kelly's decision in a pivotal moment of the game is the worst one?
I've heard of babies being dropped on their head, but you clearly were thrown against a wall.
This post was edited on 9/9/22 at 3:43 pm
Posted on 9/9/22 at 3:40 pm to keakar
quote:Actually it's not. What the OP said is accurate and you are starting to see it more and more in the NFL. Because if you are going to go for 2 then you do it on the first touchdown of the two that are needed and not on the second needed touchdown. Doing so that way let's you know how you need to play the rest of the game (by either making or missing the conversion) when there is still time on the clock as opposed to doing it late with little to no time left.
hat is the dumbest take ever you want to risk going down an extra score just to avoid a tie that keeps you alive and still in the game you never go for 2 unless you need the 2 pointers to tie the game
Posted on 9/9/22 at 3:41 pm to keakar
quote:
you want to risk going down an extra score just to avoid a tie that keeps you alive and still in the game
you're not risking going down by an extra score, you're risking going down by 8 points instead of 7. Just as many scores away from tying.
Don't feel bad though, I frequently have to clarify the rules of football to my wife who, like you, has struggles keeping up with all the nuances.
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