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Message
REAL ESTATE Home sales fell nearly 6% in July as housing market slides into a recession
Posted on 8/18/22 at 10:23 am
Posted on 8/18/22 at 10:23 am
LINK
quote:
Sales of previously owned homes fell nearly 6% in July compared with June, according to a monthly report from the National Association of Realtors.
The sales count declined to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.81 million units, the group added. It is the slowest sales pace since November 2015, with the exception of a brief plunge at the beginning of the Covid pandemic.
Sales dropped about 20% from the same month a year ago.
“In terms of economic impact we are surely in a housing recession because builders are not building,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors.
Posted on 8/18/22 at 10:25 am to WPBTiger
quote:
builders are not building,”
They are still building in certain areas... I did notice one of the big builders in Huntsville has consolidated and pulled out of the area...
Posted on 8/18/22 at 10:27 am to WPBTiger
Come on man , homes cost cheaper now! That’s a good thing!
Posted on 8/18/22 at 10:27 am to WPBTiger
i have been working with a local builder here in baton rouge for 2 years. Filed a phase 2 on a subdivision late last year. Hasnt sold a house in 6 months... it's going to get worse
Posted on 8/18/22 at 10:28 am to The Maj
Builders slowed down building during / after Covid simply because materials were such an issue.
Lumber prices were insane and the supply chain issues with getting the parts to finish the house were also a problem.
Lumber prices were insane and the supply chain issues with getting the parts to finish the house were also a problem.
Posted on 8/18/22 at 10:31 am to WPBTiger
What about all those experts who kept talking about the housing shortage and how this type of thing wouldn't happen....?
Posted on 8/18/22 at 10:33 am to WPBTiger
quote:
Home sales fell nearly 6% in July as housing market slides into a recession
Biden’s Administration:
Posted on 8/18/22 at 10:35 am to hawkeye007
quote:
it's going to get worse
Blackrock will purchase for pennies on the dollar.
Posted on 8/18/22 at 10:40 am to WPBTiger
Queue the “Great time to buy…buyers market” Facebook posts
Posted on 8/18/22 at 10:41 am to WPBTiger
It hasn’t slowed down in Hot Springs. At least the condos haven’t.
Posted on 8/18/22 at 10:41 am to WPBTiger
OH MY GOD IT's NOT A RECESSION!!! Don Lemon will tell us tonight why this is a GOOD thing!
Posted on 8/18/22 at 10:46 am to TigerFanatic99
Lemon Party will likely be out with a scorching case of monkeypox soon.
Posted on 8/18/22 at 10:52 am to WPBTiger
but values increased 10% YoY
market is so crazy right now especially with interest rates fluctuating all over the place on the fixed mortgage front
crazy times.
market is so crazy right now especially with interest rates fluctuating all over the place on the fixed mortgage front
crazy times.
Posted on 8/18/22 at 10:55 am to WPBTiger
I am a first time home owner as of 2 years ago. Is this good for me because I got in at the right time or should I be worried in the event I ever wanted to sell?
Posted on 8/18/22 at 10:56 am to The Maj
quote:
They are still building in certain areas... I did notice one of the big builders in Huntsville has consolidated and pulled out of the area...
My town is nonstop new homes.
We’re predicted to have 7k new homes between 2021-2025.
Posted on 8/18/22 at 11:19 am to WPBTiger
The housing market cooling off quickly was to be expected (hint: it's only going to get worse for at least the next 6 months). The Fed still has at least another .5 of rate-raising before the end of the year (to hit their target range of 3%-4%).
As interest rates rise (not just long-term bank loans like mortgages and car loans, but credit card rates), people are finally going to be forced to change their lifestyles. Starting in Q1 2021, Consumer Debt has picked up speed in its growth.
When looking at Nominal GDP, spending continued to increase. When looking at Real GDP, it shrank both in Q1 and Q2 of this year. What this means is people are spending more money but getting fewer things in return.
This year both home foreclosures and vehicle repossessions are up.
This is all due to not just to high inflation and fuel/energy prices, but the compounding effect of their all being high and staying high for a long time. This doesn't look to change anytime soon (example: don't expect CPI to drop below 5% until sometime next year, hopefully Q1).
So you have rising interest rates... LINK
High and/or rising energy prices ( natural gas, coal and heating oil, all of which are multiples of what they were just pre-COVID)...
Continued high oil/ gasoline prices even in the face of SPR draining coming to an end...
All of this taken together means this is just the end of the beginning. This Fall will see us well and truly in deep economic shite.
As interest rates rise (not just long-term bank loans like mortgages and car loans, but credit card rates), people are finally going to be forced to change their lifestyles. Starting in Q1 2021, Consumer Debt has picked up speed in its growth.
When looking at Nominal GDP, spending continued to increase. When looking at Real GDP, it shrank both in Q1 and Q2 of this year. What this means is people are spending more money but getting fewer things in return.
This year both home foreclosures and vehicle repossessions are up.
This is all due to not just to high inflation and fuel/energy prices, but the compounding effect of their all being high and staying high for a long time. This doesn't look to change anytime soon (example: don't expect CPI to drop below 5% until sometime next year, hopefully Q1).
So you have rising interest rates... LINK
High and/or rising energy prices ( natural gas, coal and heating oil, all of which are multiples of what they were just pre-COVID)...
Continued high oil/ gasoline prices even in the face of SPR draining coming to an end...
All of this taken together means this is just the end of the beginning. This Fall will see us well and truly in deep economic shite.
Posted on 8/18/22 at 11:28 am to Bard
Repos are likely high simply because federal actions during Covid meant that evictions and repos couldn’t be heard for a year or more.
The backlog alone means we aren’t even getting into the people with current issues, we are still going through old crap.
The backlog alone means we aren’t even getting into the people with current issues, we are still going through old crap.
Posted on 8/18/22 at 11:29 am to Shankopotomus
quote:
but values increased 10% YoY
market is so crazy right now especially with interest rates fluctuating all over the place on the fixed mortgage front
That's how much demand there is out there, I think it's also a testament to how much extra liquidity still remains in the overall economy.
Similar to how oil/gasoline prices got so high as to impact demand (thus driving price down as supply increased), we're sort of at that point with housing. 30yr mortgage rates have been acting squirrely but I think that's because a lot of MBS investors see inflation as being on the wane.
If foreclosures continue to increase (and there's no reason to not expect them to, especially on anything purchased within the last 4-5 years), I would expect those loan rates to increase. The further they move above 6%, the sooner we see that YoY% start coming down.
Posted on 8/18/22 at 11:36 am to teke184
quote:
Repos are likely high simply because federal actions during Covid meant that evictions and repos couldn’t be heard for a year or more.
The backlog alone means we aren’t even getting into the people with current issues, we are still going through old crap.
That's a good point but I would think we are either well into the backlog by now or through it. (I honestly don't know)
Either way, it's still people without vehicles who will need loans for new ones and those rates (if they can even get approved) will be far higher. Used car prices should start going down as those repo's hit the car lots.
There was a story a while back about dealers possibly keeping their lots emptier in order to try keeping prices high. With the rising number of repos, the current high prices and the coming economic crush, I don't think that's a valid scenario (read: if any try that, they'll lose their asses by having to warehouse and maintain so much inventory).
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