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Next conference realignment predictions?
Posted on 7/1/22 at 8:36 am
Posted on 7/1/22 at 8:36 am
Now that UCLA and USC are plotting a move to the Big Ten, what are the next dominos to fall?
Here are what I see as the most attractive programs (football specifically) still out there that aren't in either the SEC or Big Ten. I've listed them in what I think is the order of attractiveness.
ACC:
Clemson (current performance and history)
Miami (history and TV market)
Florida State (history)
Big 12:
None
Pac 12:
Oregon (current performance)
Washington (history and TV market)
Independents:
Notre Dame (history and national following)
Others considered, but ruled out as not being as attractive as the others:
Stanford (attractive due to other sports and academics)
BYU (small market)
West Virginia (small market)
Oklahoma State (small market, and redundant to OU)
-I suspect that the Big Ten will push for Notre Dame and one of Oregon/Washington.
-I suspect that the SEC will push for Clemson and one of Miami/Florida State.
-I anticipate all of the others (including those schools not mentioned) will coalesce into another big conference and/or fall into a second tier of college football.
What are your predictions? Obviously, other sports may impact these decisions, as well as academic politics and intraconference dynamics (like Florida possibly not wanting FSU or Miami to join the SEC).
Here are what I see as the most attractive programs (football specifically) still out there that aren't in either the SEC or Big Ten. I've listed them in what I think is the order of attractiveness.
ACC:
Clemson (current performance and history)
Miami (history and TV market)
Florida State (history)
Big 12:
None
Pac 12:
Oregon (current performance)
Washington (history and TV market)
Independents:
Notre Dame (history and national following)
Others considered, but ruled out as not being as attractive as the others:
Stanford (attractive due to other sports and academics)
BYU (small market)
West Virginia (small market)
Oklahoma State (small market, and redundant to OU)
-I suspect that the Big Ten will push for Notre Dame and one of Oregon/Washington.
-I suspect that the SEC will push for Clemson and one of Miami/Florida State.
-I anticipate all of the others (including those schools not mentioned) will coalesce into another big conference and/or fall into a second tier of college football.
What are your predictions? Obviously, other sports may impact these decisions, as well as academic politics and intraconference dynamics (like Florida possibly not wanting FSU or Miami to join the SEC).
17
Posted on 7/1/22 at 8:44 am to kbroom
If the SEC's claim that schools like Clemson and FSU don't help their TV footprint then the BIG would probably like expanding their TV footprint into the South...
So the SEC either brings in Clemson FSU (may GA Tech, Miami, or UNC) to keep the BIG out of the South or see what happens
So the SEC either brings in Clemson FSU (may GA Tech, Miami, or UNC) to keep the BIG out of the South or see what happens
Posted on 7/1/22 at 8:47 am to kbroom
I know it's not relevant to the thread but I think Texas should play USC more often in football
Posted on 7/1/22 at 8:48 am to kbroom
we are gonna get the mother of all court battles if acc teams start bolting. that gor is brutal.
Posted on 7/1/22 at 8:51 am to kbroom
I wouldn't mind a Virginia Tech thrown in the mix. They seem to have an SEC feel to them
Posted on 7/1/22 at 8:54 am to kbroom
quote:Remember when Bowden was too cowardly to accept the SEC invite around 1992?
-I suspect that the SEC will push for Clemson and one of Miami/Florida State
Posted on 7/1/22 at 9:01 am to kbroom
I'd expect Oregon/Washington to happen quickly and then a lull while the ACC schools try to figure out their legal situation.
I'd imagine Notre Dame takes their time. They'll always have a spot in the B1G if they want it.
I'd imagine Notre Dame takes their time. They'll always have a spot in the B1G if they want it.
Posted on 7/1/22 at 9:03 am to kbroom
If the Big10 is going to 20 like some suspect i think they would be wise to go after Colorado, Utah, Kansas and Notre Dame. The Colorado Utah and KS would help bridge that gap to CA and ND just makes too much sense for the Big. Big12 can take the scraps of the Pac12 and maybe the ACC can back fill with WV, Memphis, Cincy and UCF (if they would take it)
Posted on 7/1/22 at 9:07 am to kbroom
Oregon and Washington try desperately to join the big. If it succeeds, Pac-12 full collapses and we have chaos. If not, remainder of the Big12 and Pac12 merge.
Posted on 7/1/22 at 9:14 am to kbroom
Notre Dame to ACC or Big10 is the next big move. I think they'd need a partner though.
Maybe ND/USF or ECU to ACC?
Maybe ND/USF or ECU to ACC?
Posted on 7/1/22 at 9:40 am to kbroom
Houston might be able to make themselves appealing.
Major market, and the university has recently signaled a willingness to make major investments in athletics. On the strength of the basketball program, and with a commitment to continue investment in football, they could be appealing if the Big Ten wanted to fight their way into the Texas markets. Or if realignment snowballs into 20 team mega conferences, the SEC may make room for them if for no other reason than keeping the Big Ten out of the south.
Major market, and the university has recently signaled a willingness to make major investments in athletics. On the strength of the basketball program, and with a commitment to continue investment in football, they could be appealing if the Big Ten wanted to fight their way into the Texas markets. Or if realignment snowballs into 20 team mega conferences, the SEC may make room for them if for no other reason than keeping the Big Ten out of the south.
This post was edited on 7/1/22 at 9:43 am
Posted on 7/1/22 at 9:52 am to kbroom
I think Oregon is the next domino to fall maybe.
Posted on 7/1/22 at 10:23 am to kbroom
The SEC doesn't need Clemson or FSU. Miami, UNC and Colorado would give us new markets.
Posted on 7/1/22 at 10:40 am to kbroom
I'd be surprised to see anybody leave Big 12 or ACC. They seem like the next big conferences to add teams.
Posted on 7/1/22 at 11:32 am to kbroom
I would be surprised if the big 10 wasn’t looking into expanding into the Florida tv market. I think one of miami/fsu will get an invite….probably miami due to better academics.
Only a matter of time before Clemson joins the SEC. Probably fsu and unc also. Notre dame definitely ends up in the big 10 at some point.
Only a matter of time before Clemson joins the SEC. Probably fsu and unc also. Notre dame definitely ends up in the big 10 at some point.
Posted on 7/1/22 at 12:25 pm to kbroom
As has been stated, there are only about 8 schools that add value to the Big Ten and SEC. They will split evenly.
Oregon, Washington, Virginia and North Carolina to the Big Ten.
Clemson, Virginia Tech, Miami and Florida St to the SEC.
Notre Dame is the wild card. If they go to the Big Ten, then Virginia or North Carolina will go to the SEC instead.
Oregon, Washington, Virginia and North Carolina to the Big Ten.
Clemson, Virginia Tech, Miami and Florida St to the SEC.
Notre Dame is the wild card. If they go to the Big Ten, then Virginia or North Carolina will go to the SEC instead.
Posted on 7/1/22 at 12:27 pm to kbroom
Someone will want Oregon for the Nike money.
Oregon State has very little to offer but would be a cultural fit for the Big Ten East.
I feel bad for Utah. Built up their program, earned their way into a power conference, and now they're back to square one.
Oregon State has very little to offer but would be a cultural fit for the Big Ten East.
I feel bad for Utah. Built up their program, earned their way into a power conference, and now they're back to square one.
This post was edited on 7/1/22 at 12:39 pm
Posted on 7/1/22 at 5:42 pm to kbroom
I’m of the opinion that ESPN and FOX are the people actually running the show here. If I’m at FOX, I’m pushing hard to end the PAC12 because FOX the opportunity here to keep all the PAC12 teams under their umbrella while paying for one less power conference.
Get the B1G to snag Oregon, Washington and Stanford. I think this would force Notre Dame to join the B1G as well. I don’t think ND football is subject to the ACC grant of rights.
Get the Big XII to snag Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah. The Big XII will likely continue to be a FOX conference given their ruined relationship with ESPN.
Get the Mountain West, another FOX conference, to snag the PAC leftovers.
I think the full ACC teams are stuck because I don’t see ESPN having the SEC poach a conference it already has the full rights for, and the B1G won’t want enough ACC teams to end the grant of rights when there are plenty of good west coast teams available.
Get the B1G to snag Oregon, Washington and Stanford. I think this would force Notre Dame to join the B1G as well. I don’t think ND football is subject to the ACC grant of rights.
Get the Big XII to snag Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah. The Big XII will likely continue to be a FOX conference given their ruined relationship with ESPN.
Get the Mountain West, another FOX conference, to snag the PAC leftovers.
I think the full ACC teams are stuck because I don’t see ESPN having the SEC poach a conference it already has the full rights for, and the B1G won’t want enough ACC teams to end the grant of rights when there are plenty of good west coast teams available.
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