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re: Nate Silverware releases 538’s first 2022 forecast
Posted on 6/30/22 at 1:13 pm to Jbird
Posted on 6/30/22 at 1:13 pm to Jbird
Prediction:
GOP picks up 55 House seats. 265 GOP and 170 Dem.
GOP picks up 2 Senate seats. 52 GOP and 48 Dem (46 Dem and 2 Is that caucus with Dems).
GOP picks up 55 House seats. 265 GOP and 170 Dem.
GOP picks up 2 Senate seats. 52 GOP and 48 Dem (46 Dem and 2 Is that caucus with Dems).
This post was edited on 6/30/22 at 1:29 pm
1
Posted on 6/30/22 at 1:21 pm to GumboPot
I’m not sure I follow your Senate forecast. Currently, the GOP has 50, if they pick up 2 they would have 52. To maintain the 50, either incumbents or open GOP seats are won and no Democrats lose or the GOP loses seats, but offsets those losses with pickups.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 1:24 pm to Jbird
Are they taking into consideration where cheating has and hasn't been fixed. If not anyone putting much faith into their forecast will be in for a lot of disappointment.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 1:28 pm to FlyingTiger1955
quote:
I’m not sure I follow your Senate forecast. Currently, the GOP has 50,
I thought the GOP had 48. IDK what I was thinking.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 1:36 pm to Bamatab
No it’s not too early when you have candidates like Walker and Oz. Oz won’t be any better in November than he is now. Walker is an idiot and we won’t be any smarter in November. Those 2 are losses for sure. I don’t think GA was ever in okay due to the demographics. The right candidate might have won in PA. I hate to say it, but I think Trump screwed the pooch with his endorsements.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 1:38 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
I'm kind of curious if the polling companies have learned anything after 2016 and 2020. Nate's work will always be reliant on this data.
They are probably tied into Dominions coding algorithms.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 1:41 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
I'm kind of curious if the polling companies have learned anything after 2016 and 2020. Nate's work will always be reliant on this data.
Isn't it a logical fallacy to laugh at polls from 2020 and to simultaneously believe the election was stolen? If the election was stolen, of course polls were going to be inaccurate
(they were actually pretty good in '20 and Nate was one of the few who gave Trump a shot in '16 but most here don't understand how probabilities work)
Posted on 6/30/22 at 1:43 pm to Jake88
quote:
oz in Pennsylvania
I understand this is the narrative.
But, how is Feterman not a terrible candidate?
Guy has never had a real job.
He's a ugly goober looking maaafricka.
His wife was an illegal immigrant.
He's a ticking time bomb with his cardiac issues.
If Republicans can harp on this, no way he can win.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 1:50 pm to jcaz
quote:SCOTUS is up to the Senate. Not safe unless the Senate changes. Not safe as long as a Dem is president and RINOs are in office in the Senate.
SCOTUS is safe,
Posted on 6/30/22 at 1:51 pm to oogabooga68
quote:
Here's my overview: Until after August, nobody knows a damned thing.
If these SCOTUS decisions don't give dems a bump in the next month, they're in for a slaughtering.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 1:55 pm to SlowFlowPro
When was the prediction made that you are citing?
Posted on 6/30/22 at 1:59 pm to upgrayedd
quote:
If these SCOTUS decisions don't give dems a bump in the next month, they're in for a slaughtering.
SCOTUS is done for this year...
they need the bump to hold for 4 months
that's an eternity when $5/gal gas and $200-$300/week supermarket bills are staring you in the face over and over and over and over between now and then
(is it any coincidence gas prices are starting to slowly trickle downwards a bit?)
Posted on 6/30/22 at 2:02 pm to jcaz
Just need one senate seat. Do everything possible to win it. Spend a billion dollars
Posted on 6/30/22 at 2:02 pm to Jbird
quote:
53% chance to win the Senate,
Thanks Trump.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 2:04 pm to xxTIMMYxx
quote:
Just need one senate seat. Do everything possible to win it. Spend a billion dollars
Get Herschel out of his cave just to be seen doing anything would help
I don't care if all he does is UGA chants, it's better than what's going on now. I had hopes he could just run out the clock but that's not working (even though I definitely don't think he's down 10, but he might be down 4-5).
Posted on 6/30/22 at 2:07 pm to aTmTexas Dillo
quote:
And then Beto will run against Cruz again in 2024.
So, Texas is getting more red
Posted on 6/30/22 at 2:10 pm to FlyingTiger1955
quote:
. Those 2 are losses for sure.
No they aren’t
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