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Nate Silverware releases 538’s first 2022 forecast
Posted on 6/30/22 at 12:34 pm
Posted on 6/30/22 at 12:34 pm
FiveThirtyEight
@FiveThirtyEight
·
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NEW: Republicans are favored to win the House in November, while the Senate is a toss-up, according to FiveThirtyEight’s latest 2022 election forecast.
Republicans have an 87% chance to win the House but only a 53% chance to win the Senate, according to the Deluxe version of the FiveThirtyEight forecast, which is now live
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
·
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Replying to @NateSilver538
And here's my overview. Basically: the political environment is quite bad for Dems, but the GOP has enough bad candidates (inexperienced, scandal-plagued, 1/6 endorser, views outside mainstream) to keep D hopes alive in the Senate & some key gov races.
The split diagnosis reflects the difference between macro- and micro-level conditions. The national environment is quite poor for Democrats. Of course, this is typical for the president’s party, which has lost seats in the House in all but two of the past 21 midterm elections. But Democrats are also saddled with an unpopular President Biden and a series of challenges for the country, including inflation levels that haven’t been seen in decades, the lingering effects of the still-ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and fraying trust in civic institutions — caused, in part, by Republican efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election. LINK
@FiveThirtyEight
·
Follow
NEW: Republicans are favored to win the House in November, while the Senate is a toss-up, according to FiveThirtyEight’s latest 2022 election forecast.
Republicans have an 87% chance to win the House but only a 53% chance to win the Senate, according to the Deluxe version of the FiveThirtyEight forecast, which is now live
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
·
Follow
Replying to @NateSilver538
And here's my overview. Basically: the political environment is quite bad for Dems, but the GOP has enough bad candidates (inexperienced, scandal-plagued, 1/6 endorser, views outside mainstream) to keep D hopes alive in the Senate & some key gov races.
The split diagnosis reflects the difference between macro- and micro-level conditions. The national environment is quite poor for Democrats. Of course, this is typical for the president’s party, which has lost seats in the House in all but two of the past 21 midterm elections. But Democrats are also saddled with an unpopular President Biden and a series of challenges for the country, including inflation levels that haven’t been seen in decades, the lingering effects of the still-ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and fraying trust in civic institutions — caused, in part, by Republican efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election. LINK
13
Posted on 6/30/22 at 12:38 pm to Jbird
If we can just take back the house we might be able to ride this out to 2024.
SCOTUS is safe, Senate is deadlock.
Gridlock
SCOTUS is safe, Senate is deadlock.
Gridlock
Posted on 6/30/22 at 12:39 pm to Jbird
President Hillary approves of these polls.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 12:40 pm to Jbird
quote:
And here's my overview.
Here's my overview: Until after August, nobody knows a damned thing.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 12:41 pm to Jbird
It’s funny how the Dems never have “bad” candidates. All the salt of the earth.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 12:44 pm to Jbird
I read a 53% chance of winning the senate as 53 R seats in the senate. If Murkowski isn't one of them, that's as much as we can hope for.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 12:46 pm to Jbird
Hersch "Nate" Silver is a mess!
This post was edited on 6/30/22 at 12:48 pm
Posted on 6/30/22 at 12:47 pm to Jbird
quote::
1/6 endorser
Great pollster, totally feeling the pulse of the country
Posted on 6/30/22 at 12:49 pm to Jbird
I'm kind of curious if the polling companies have learned anything after 2016 and 2020. Nate's work will always be reliant on this data.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 12:52 pm to Jbird
It seems Walker in GA and Oz in PA are losses Republicans could have won.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 12:54 pm to Jake88
quote:Possibly.
It seems Walker in GA and Oz in PA are losses Republicans could have won.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 12:54 pm to SlowFlowPro
They know exactly what they're doing bro. Gaslighting. No different than MSM.
Rasmussen and peoples pundit are accurate the Quinnipiac and Fox News and NBC/WSJ all over sample Dems by 5% to 10%
Rasmussen and peoples pundit are accurate the Quinnipiac and Fox News and NBC/WSJ all over sample Dems by 5% to 10%
This post was edited on 6/30/22 at 12:56 pm
Posted on 6/30/22 at 12:58 pm to SlowFlowPro
There’s no way they understand how to control for the demographic shifts in each area over the past 2 years
Posted on 6/30/22 at 12:58 pm to jcaz
Need the senate to stall judiciary appointments.
Best case scenario we get a Republican administration in 2024 and hand them a backlog of appointments to fill.
Best case scenario we get a Republican administration in 2024 and hand them a backlog of appointments to fill.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 1:01 pm to Jbird
quote:
1/6 endorser
What does this even mean? A catch-all for anyone who feels like like they were cheated out of the democratic process?
Posted on 6/30/22 at 1:04 pm to Jbird
The senate could be tough for Rs. And then Beto will run against Cruz again in 2024.
Posted on 6/30/22 at 1:05 pm to SirWinston
Nate silver became famous for calling every state correctly in the 2012 election, an election so boring and with such accurate polling there were maybe 2 states that were up in the air. Dudes a loser and a joke
Posted on 6/30/22 at 1:05 pm to SirWinston
quote:
They know exactly what they're doing bro. Gaslighting
But how effective was this?
They've been extremely embarrassed for 3 cycles in a row
Biden won, but not by nearly the gap they predicted
Posted on 6/30/22 at 1:13 pm to Jake88
quote:
It seems Walker in GA and Oz in PA are losses Republicans could have won.
I think it's way too early to know. Right now the dems are still riding the abortion outrage wave, but that won't last until Nov. I'll be more interested to see where things lie in Sept.
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