We are seeing signs of a bottoming process in the market

Thanks for this interesting information!

Picking up companies at prices I like right now for the long term. Short term prices still seem a little heavy, but who knows.

My firm forecasted this movement weeks ago and positioned accordingly.

Short term bottom and rally. There's extreme price resistance ahead to stop a prolonged rally and will be a time to sell.

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My issue is the housing bubble. When they raise interest rates enough, there will be significantly less sales of houses and less appreciation of real estate. It could even cause prices to fall.

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Rate hikes projected to top out around 2.5% -- hardly enough to crush housing market demand, and will have zero effect on the supply-side dynamics that are driving current appreciation.

Damn I got the most dislikes ever. Even more conviction to my position. Chop for another month. Buy high sell low

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Damn I got the most dislikes ever. Even more conviction to my position. Chop for another month. Buy high sell low

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Did pick up few shares of M based on this thread. For this i salute you

SQ is actually one of the growth stocks that looks decent. Broke above range last week. I didn’t do anything on it though. Seems we are seeing good levels to trade against though. Time to push some chips in

I don’t disagree and there are many factors affecting the real estate market right now, but I think it’s become clear that the primary driver of sustained single family housing appreciation is lack of supply, like an earlier poster said. Moderate rate hikes may slow the appreciation and cool the market slightly over the next half a year or so, but I don’t know that it will stop it anytime soon. Supply chain and labor issues continue to drive up the cost of materials/products and the time required to manufacture and that continues to increase the cost to build. The cost to buy is at least loosely correlated to the cost to build, and that effect is multiplied when you have a serious lack of inventory. At the very least, the ~1 year future of the housing market is anybody’s guess.

Bottoming? ….. hardly.

Still another 15% to go ….. mebbe more. There is no “blood in the streets” yet by any stretch of the definition.

Historically speaking, market cap/GDP remains about 60% higher than its historical mean, ..... about 40% higher than it was prior to the 2008 crash, and about 25% higher than the previous top it had made prior to the DotCom bust in 2000.

In other words, there is still the potential for continued erosion lower .... and market participants would do well to remind themselves of just how insane this bull market has been over the last 14 years.

The highest risk right now is for the retail, buy-the-dip investor that has not experienced similar conditions like in 2000 and 2007.

I have much scar tissue from those two episodes ..... and I hope some of you can learn from my mistakes so that you don't have to learn these lessons the way I did. We experienced bear market rallies in both of those corrections .... and I suspect that is what we are experiencing currently.

Be careful out there, baws ..... manage your risk and keep some dry powder. G/L