Russia: Is History Repeating Itself? Those who ignore it...

First off:



That part of Poland which runs between Danzig and Germany (and, most importantly, separates a portion of Germany) was known as the "Danzig" or "Polish" Corridor (depending on whom you speak to). This was established as part of the Treaty of Versailles. More on this piece of real estate in a bit.

March 12, 1938 saw the Anschluss Österreichs, the annexation of Austria by Germany, much to the joy and approval of many Austrians. By some estimates, Hitler was more popular in Austria than in Germany at this time.

Hitler's rationale was that Austrians were really Germanic and thus part of the "Greater Germany". He wasn't invading a foreign country, he just reuniting separated peoples. What a guy.

While many Ukrainians loathe Putin and desperately do not want to be absorbed into Russia, Putin's rhetoric regarding the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics doesn't sound too different from Hitler's Austria stance. While it's not a 100% match, the differences are minor. If Putin decides to absorb Belarus, his reasons will be so similar that the differences will be only cosmetic.


In late 1938 Hitler claimed the Czechs were committing horrible atrocities against ethnically German peoples so Czechoslovakia needed to cede those parts to Germany.

Does that sound familiar? It should.

quote:

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It is also true that Crimea in 2014 had an ethnic Russian majority of about 60 percent — the only part of Ukraine where ethnic Russians constituted the majority.

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quote:

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Moscow expressed concern about the fate of ethnic Russians in Crimea, but no evidence showed any threat to them. The Russian government justified the referendum and annexation as an act of self-determination, though it appears that well less than half of the Crimean population actually voted to join Russia.

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And now back to this:



By mid-1939 Hitler was demanding that Poland hand over the Corridor, promising that this would be his last demand if they gave in on just this one last thing. Rumor is he even pinky-swore!


-Soon to be claimed as a gesture secretly espousing white supremacist views

Why is this important? Because Kaliningrad.



Kaliningrad is a part of Russia. In a different manner -but one with the same result- Russia lost direct access to Kaliningrad when the Baltic nations and Belarus became independent after the USSR fell. If Putin is following the same path as Hitler, his next objective after Ukraine (and Moldova, quite likely) will be to absorb Belarus then begin making a pitch for access to Kaliningrad. Poland and Lithuania are both NATO members and based as frick (Lithuania has been a vocal advocate of economic sanctions against Russia and have welcomed opposition activists from both Russia and Belarus) so they will be absolutely unwilling to cede any lands to Russia.

The big questions are:

-Will the West (meaning the EU, UK, NATO, etc) standing down over Ukraine embolden Putin to go after reconnecting to Kaliningrad?
-If so, what will the West do about it?

Make no mistake, this isn't a call to send troops into Ukraine. It's applying the lessons of history to see the warning signs of whether or not it may be repeating itself.