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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 4/29/24 at 8:53 am to
Posted by Lima Whiskey
Member since Apr 2013
19465 posts
Posted on 4/29/24 at 8:53 am to
quote:

The rest is for manufacturing and R&D here in the USA after seeing how Obama wrecked the defense manufacturing sector.


Clinton did that.
This post was edited on 4/29/24 at 8:54 am
Posted by Darth_Vader
A galaxy far, far away
Member since Dec 2011
64948 posts
Posted on 4/29/24 at 8:57 am to
quote:

Darth claims to be neutral and looking at this from a historical perspective. However, he only follows pro-Russia leaning sources like Big Serge


You’re wrong kid. But by claiming this it allows you to continue to refuse to accept the reality of the situation. I follow sources from both sides of this war because I fully understand that propaganda is a weapon of war being used by both sides. The only way to come close to understanding the true nature of the war is to look at what both sides are saying, sift though the BS, and come to a conclusion based on your best educated guess given the limited amount of information available.

quote:

Therefore his analysis is flawed but like most historians he will not admit it.


When have I made a claim on this war that has proven wrong? I’m still the same as I’ve been since the start of this war, namely a strictly neutral observer, giving my opinion based solely on my knowledge of military & political history and strategy based on over 40 years of deep study on both subjects. I have no emotional attachment for either Russia or Ukraine. If anything, I’m far more anti-Russia than I am pro-Ukraine, based on the fact I was taught from Childhood in the 1970s that Russia is our enemy. I have no desire to see the Russians win this war.

But I also have to give my honest assessment of the situation. And that assessment is it’s a physical impossibility for Ukraine to push Russia out of its borders. And in fact, the longer this war continues, the deeper into Ukraine Russia will push. And if the war is allowed to go on long enough, Ukraine faces military collapse. The time has come for Ukraine to find an off-ramp to this war because there is no way left to it for them to favorably influence the outcome by means of armed resistance. Each day that passes, their situation will worsen. The time has come for the Western Powers, to use diplomacy to put pressure on Russia to come to the table and negotiate in an earnest manner. Will it be easy? No. It will require statecraft on a level thus far seemingly absent in Western leaders. But when the alternative is eventual collapse on the part of Ukraine, it’s the best hope for some sort of acceptable peace.

I don’t say this because it’s the outcome I want. I say that because it’s reality. It’s the reality that’s playing out right now. You see the same reports I do. Even the most pro-Ukrainian sources report daily of Russian gains. Just yesterday I posted an article from the Kyiv Post where the top Ukrainian commander openly admits they’re already in trouble. I’m sorry this pains you. But all you accomplish when you make asinine posts attacking me as some sort of pro-Russian stooge is to make yourself look like a complete arse.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
40215 posts
Posted on 4/29/24 at 9:09 am to
quote:

I haven’t seen any indications that Russia will compromise in any way.


Me neither.

quote:

And why should they?


The only things that I can think of that would make Russia want to compromise is if Putin’s health took a downturn and Russia needed to focus its resources for preparing for a transfer of power after his death, or the Russian economy was about to collapse. Since neither appear likely to happen in the near future there is nothing apparent to make Russia want to stop.

quote:

To settle for less would mean Putin wasted the lives of tens of thousands of Russians for half a loaf?


Settling for a no victory in Afghanistan and in WW1 were major factors in the downfall of the USSR and the Czar’s government. Putin is a historian and is not going to repeat those mistakes unless the Russian people rise up which at this point is about as likely as Will Wade being rehired by LSU.
Posted by Lima Whiskey
Member since Apr 2013
19465 posts
Posted on 4/29/24 at 9:11 am to
quote:

Mobilization has finally finished off the motivation of Ukrainians to defend the country, and the lack of demobilization leads to negative consequences at the front, when entire brigades leave their positions. Morale and motivation in the Armed Forces of Ukraine after two years of confrontation with the Russian Armed Forces is now the lowest in the entire history of Ukraine. The main reasons for this state of affairs are as follows:

•The Armed Forces of Ukraine have a critical shortage of manpower; some brigades have 30–40% of their personnel left. At the same time, they do not hope for mobilization at the front; even if there are reserves, it will not be until the fall. Moreover, Ukrainian men do not want to fight;

•The West is not able to provide Ukraine with military assistance in the volumes it needs. The US allocation of additional funding came too late and will no longer help Kyiv. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are still capable of slowing down the advance of the Russian army, but they can no longer win;

•the leadership style of Commander-in-Chief Syrsky, which the troops call the “paralyzing effect of a butcher.” The appointment of a general to the post of commander-in-chief has lowered morale in the Ukrainian army, since Syrsky puts the task at the forefront, and he does not care how this will be achieved.

Another serious problem is that there is growing discontent in the Ukrainian army that Zelensky and the Verkhovna Rada have made military serfs who will never receive demobilization. As the military themselves say, they now have only “four roads” from the front: Death, Captivity, Desertion, Disability. In fact, when the authorities removed demobilization from the bill on tightening mobilization, they reset the already low morale of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.


LINK
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
40215 posts
Posted on 4/29/24 at 9:30 am to
quote:

Darth claims to be neutral and looking at this from a historical perspective. However, he only follows pro-Russia leaning sources like Big Serge You’re wrong kid.


Bull f**king shite.

quote:

allows you to continue to refuse to accept the reality of the situation.


Have you ever been to Ukraine? Do you communicate with people there? I have and I do. The situation on the ground is a WW1 type stalemate. Yes Russia has made some advances in the recent months which sounds impressive but it’s really not. They have advanced < 10 km in a few spots in the Zap oblast since the Ukrainian counteroffensive stalled out last year, and < 20 km since taking Avdiivka 2 months ago. The territory that Russia has captured since the fall of Avdiivka has mostly been uncontested farmland. All of that was done when US aid was stalled. US aid has cleared now.

Also Russia’s forces are more vulnerable than you think. The Cimean bridge is still under weight restrictions so most of the supplies coming into the Zap Oblast have to be shipped through the rest of the Donbas using two railroads which have multiple bridges which ATCAMs can knock out and then knock out again and again after Russia repairs them. Also with the demise of the Khakova reservoir last year, Crimea is back under water restrictions. It’s reservoirs are predicted to be extremely low by the end of the summer.

quote:

When have I made a claim on this war that has proven wrong?


You have claimed that Ukraine could make peace now that would be better than a peace in the future; only to have it pointed out to you that Russia is demanding Ukraine’s surrender now. So any peace deal now would be same as a peace deal in the future.
Posted by Darth_Vader
A galaxy far, far away
Member since Dec 2011
64948 posts
Posted on 4/29/24 at 9:58 am to
quote:

WeeWee


Get a hold of yourself. You are babbling nonsensically and embarrassing yourself. You’re too emotionally attached to this war to look at it from a reasonable perspective.

Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
9718 posts
Posted on 4/29/24 at 10:00 am to
quote:

I agree with you regarding Obama, but what happened to all of the money Trump spent on the military? That was a huge sum. Trump use to brag about it all of the time.


Nothing was spent on making Stinger manpads which we haven't made in years if not decades. He did nothing to stop the Obama EO to destroy the stockpile of cluster munitions. Much is being destroyed this year at a cost to taxpayers. Whatever he spent, it wasn't on revitalizing the munitions manufacturing.
Posted by joshnorris14
Florida
Member since Jan 2009
45303 posts
Posted on 4/29/24 at 10:00 am to
quote:

All of that was done when US aid was stalled. US aid has cleared now.



Are we supposed to pretend that "all of the was done" didn't happen when Europe sent over $50B? Does only American funding/support help Ukraine?
This post was edited on 4/29/24 at 10:01 am
Posted by Chromdome35
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
6876 posts
Posted on 4/29/24 at 10:00 am to
At this point, the ONLY hope I see for Ukraine to bring Russia to the negotiating table would be to 1) inflict enough damage on the Russian energy space to make a severe impact on the Russian economy and 2) to cut and isolate Crimea by taking down the Kerch Bridge and severing the rail links along the southern Ukrainian coastline.

Unless Ukraine has pulled off some masterful strategy where they have been secretly marshaling troops and equipment, Ukraine does not appear to have the combat power to push Russia off the battlefield anywhere.

What Darth is saying, and I tend to agree with, is that given Ukraine's inability to push Russia back and Russia's increasing ability to push Ukraine back, Russia will slowly continue to gain ground. The sooner Ukraine accepts this and tries to end it, the more of their country they can save.

The recent aid will help Ukraine slow the Russian advance, but there isn't a single thing in there that will change the strategic calculus on the ground.
Posted by Lima Whiskey
Member since Apr 2013
19465 posts
Posted on 4/29/24 at 10:17 am to
quote:

given Ukraine's inability to push Russia back and Russia's increasing ability to push Ukraine back, Russia will slowly continue to gain ground


Russian gains will start snowballing.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
40215 posts
Posted on 4/29/24 at 10:45 am to
quote:

WeeWee Get a hold of yourself. You are babbling nonsensically and embarrassing yourself. You’re too emotionally attached to this war to look at it from a reasonable perspective.


Incorrect. Just because someone uses cuss words doesn’t mean doesn’t mean they’re upset. Sorry for calling you out on your BS. I forgot that the old people like you are as a stubborn as a donkey on a cold day. You are saying that I am emotional because I hit the nail on the head with you. I don’t have the time to do it, but I am sure that if you look at your post history over the war that with the exception of the Ukrainian breakthrough in Kharkiv in 2022 your posts are based off of sources like Big Serge who has finally dropped the pretense of being neutral. Of course I doubt your stubborn old self is willing to do that.
Posted by Darth_Vader
A galaxy far, far away
Member since Dec 2011
64948 posts
Posted on 4/29/24 at 10:46 am to
quote:

At this point, the ONLY hope I see for Ukraine to bring Russia to the negotiating table would be to 1) inflict enough damage on the Russian energy space to make a severe impact on the Russian economy and 2) to cut and isolate Crimea by taking down the Kerch Bridge and severing the rail links along the southern Ukrainian coastline.


This along with as much pressure the West can bring to bear short of war. Russia’s Achilles Heel is their dependence on oil and NG exports to keep their economy afloat. But this vulnerability has inexplicably been left unexploited by the West up to now other than the pathetically weak scansions that have had no appreciable impact. If the West adopted energy and environmental policies to make it clear we are in the oil & NG business for the long haul, that would serve to bring down the cost of these commodities to where Russia could no longer rely on them to keep their economy from collapsing. If the West did this, Putin would be forced to come to the table and a negotiated settlement could be reached.

quote:

What Darth is saying, and I tend to agree with, is that given Ukraine's inability to push Russia back and Russia's increasing ability to push Ukraine back, Russia will slowly continue to gain ground. The sooner Ukraine accepts this and tries to end it, the more of their country they can save.


Precisely. How some here cannot see this baffles me.

quote:

The recent aid will help Ukraine slow the Russian advance, but there isn't a single thing in there that will change the strategic calculus on the ground.


The only way this latest round of aid will help is, if along with it, the West immediately implements the plan I laid out at the top of this post. If, and it’s a big if, the West drives down the price of oil and that is coupled with stiffening of the Ukrainian lines, then Ukraine can negotiate with something reasonable on their side to have hope of having a not totally disastrous peace imposed on them. However, if things continue to progress as they are today, I’d say a total collapse of the Ukrainian military at some point this year (my best guess is mid to late summer) is a very real possibility. And when that happens, it will be Putin dictating terms to a defeated Ukraine; that is if there is such a thing as Ukraine left at that point.
Posted by Darth_Vader
A galaxy far, far away
Member since Dec 2011
64948 posts
Posted on 4/29/24 at 10:47 am to
quote:

Incorrect. Just because someone uses cuss words doesn’t mean doesn’t mean they’re upset. Sorry for calling you out on your BS. I forgot that the old people like you are as a stubborn as a donkey on a cold day. You are saying that I am emotional because I hit the nail on the head with you. I don’t have the time to do it, but I am sure that if you look at your post history over the war that with the exception of the Ukrainian breakthrough in Kharkiv in 2022 your posts are based off of sources like Big Serge who has finally dropped the pretense of being neutral. Of course I doubt your stubborn old self is willing to do that.


Good lord. I quoted the guy one time and now you think I’m his disciple. Again, get a hold of yourself.
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
2342 posts
Posted on 4/29/24 at 10:49 am to
quote:

Three years ago less than 5% of Americans could find Ukraine on a map.

Currently it's a Top 3 issue in the Presidential election and last week members of Congress were waiving Ukrainian flags.

I think it's safe to say Putin miscalculated here.


I'd be interested to see where you're seeing its a top 3 issue, because most of the surveys I've seen of voters don't even have it on the list.

If it is a top 3 issue, its that because its controversial, not because 90% of Americans want to fund Ukraine and its that important to them.

The following stats are per a recent Pew study: 74% of Americans said the Russia/Ukraine war is at least somewhat important to US interests. Only 59% said it was at least somewhat important to them personally. It was a bit lower than Israel/Gaza & Taiwan in the first category, and behind Israel by 6% in the second.

YouGov says 53% support sending aid to Ukraine, and that number is biased heavily based on party (Dems support it more) and age (Boomers remembering the Cold War).

So in summary, I don't think he miscalculated anything. He knew going into it that US support would happen at some level. He appears to be well on his way to achieving his strategic goals. And for as much as the west is "grinding down" Russian military capability, they seem to be doing some grinding of their own on the west.
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
2342 posts
Posted on 4/29/24 at 10:50 am to
quote:

Have you ever been to Ukraine? Do you communicate with people there? I have and I do.


Bot
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
2342 posts
Posted on 4/29/24 at 10:52 am to
Him, LSU Pilot, Lee B, and DNC Tiger get in their feelings really hard on this. You can tell the war isn't going well by how often they are lashing out... or in Lee B's case how often he goes on paragraphs long diatribes about how he met the Mayor of Shreveport in 1957 and that even then they talked about how important Ukraine was to Louisiana
Posted by Darth_Vader
A galaxy far, far away
Member since Dec 2011
64948 posts
Posted on 4/29/24 at 11:16 am to
quote:

Him, LSU Pilot, Lee B, and DNC Tiger get in their feelings really hard on this. You can tell the war isn't going well by how often they are lashing out... or in Lee B's case how often he goes on paragraphs long diatribes about how he met the Mayor of Shreveport in 1957 and that even then they talked about how important Ukraine was to Louisiana


I get it. It’s never good for any peoples to find themselves under Russian control. And I personally have no love for Russia either. I spent the last part of my teens waiting to meet them in the Fulda Gap. But I also don’t understand the almost fanatical devotion some have for Ukraine. For some perspective, our country was founded in 1776. So we’re roughly 247 years old as a country today. In those 247 years, Ukraine has been a part of Russia for all but the last 32 years. And the fact it was a part of Russia during those other 215 years had zero impact on the US.
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
2342 posts
Posted on 4/29/24 at 11:21 am to
quote:

In those 247 years, Ukraine has been a part of Russia for all but the last 32 years. And the fact it was a part of Russia during those other 215 years had zero impact on the US.


And I doubt the day to day lives of most Ukrainians was really THAT different from the time the USSR fell until right after we helped install the current government.
Posted by RuLSU
Chicago, IL
Member since Nov 2007
8114 posts
Posted on 4/29/24 at 11:23 am to
quote:

Are we supposed to pretend that "all of the was done" didn't happen when Europe sent over $50B? Does only American funding/support help Ukraine?

America allocates funds in the form of weapon transfers. The $ covers the weapons that need replacement.

It's not the money that counts, it's the ammunition and weapons that count. And an awful lot of weapons are heading to Ukraine / already in theater.
Posted by Darth_Vader
A galaxy far, far away
Member since Dec 2011
64948 posts
Posted on 4/29/24 at 11:32 am to
quote:

And I doubt the day to day lives of most Ukrainians was really THAT different from the time the USSR fell until right after we helped install the current government.


Well, that’s a more complex matter. The history of Russian persecution of Ukrainians is long and quite terrible, ranging from mass deportations, cultural oppression, and even genocide. During the 1930s, as many as 5 million Ukrainians died, primarily via starvation, in a Soviet caused manmade famine commonly called the Holodomor.

Russian treatment of Ukrainians was so bad that when the Germans invaded in 1941, many Ukrainians viewed them as liberators form Soviet Russian oppression. During WWII, upwards of a quarter of a million Ukrainians fought along side the Germans, serving primarily in Waffen SS formations due to citizenship restrictions on service in the Wehrmacht. That’s why even to this day, the view of Nazis in Ukraine is far more complex than in the West. From their perspective, the Nazis were not as bad as the Russians.

But having said all that, from a strictly national interest standpoint, Ukraine is not a strategic partner to the US.
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